With generational differences and partisan loyalties in the pan-blue and pan-green camps, the three main parties — the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) — remain close in polls running up to the presidential and legislative elections.
They need to consider how they could attract support from minority groups outside of their established voter bases.
Hong Kong celebrity Chapman To (杜汶澤) is to vote in Taiwan for the first time after receiving his national identification card. He is just one of many Hong Kongers who have immigrated to Taiwan over the past few years.
There are about 590,000 “new immigrants” — 300,000 of whom have the right to vote. Many are parents, with the number of children reaching as many as 450,000; they are sure to be on the lookout for a better future for their kids.
There are 1,028,000 first-time voters considered to be in minority groups between the ages of 20 and 24, with 580,000 being indigenous people who are largely forgotten by politicians; 5 percent of the population identifying as non-heterosexual; residents of eastern Taiwan, as well as those living on outlying islands, all of whom could have a major impact on election results as significant minority voter groups.
However, on issues and policies related to minorities, all major parties, whether they are the governing majority or the opposition, still have much room to improve. Nominating indigenous legislators and legislator-at-large slots or new immigrants is little more than window dressing. Similarly, legacy media and online commentators rarely have a handle on the political preferences of minority groups.
How to win support from new immigrants and indigenous people, whose voices are usually neglected, as well as first-time swing voters, often escapes the minds of campaign staffers. What is worse, when the KMT, DPP and TPP struggle to devise appropriate political policies or have anything to show regarding minorities, they only obfuscate and accuse their rivals of not doing enough for these underrepresented groups.
Minorities were not seen as important in the past three transfers of political power. Ethnic ties, factions and generational differences were the main factors keeping younger generations and minorities outside of politics.
Even within these different groups, we see established patterns of political loyalty. Hong Kongers who relocated to Taiwan and LGBTQ+ groups tend to be pro-green, residents of outlying islands and rural areas are generally pro-blue and the children of new immigrants tend to be pro-TPP.
The majority and mainstream media find it hard to convince minorities to join their side. Taking advantage of concurrent social network promotion and on-the-ground activities is a good way to achieve this, but how to convert this into votes is the real challenge.
Due to their different stances on gender equality, the KMT’s presidential candidate, New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜), and TPP Chairman and presidential candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) did not attend Kaohsiung Pride.
The DPP’s presidential candidate, Vice President William Lai (賴清德), who lacks supporters in Kinmen County could only stand back and watch blue camp figures advocate for peace on the anniversary of the 823 Artillery Bombardment. Lai and his running mate, former representative to the US Hsiao Bi-khim (蕭美琴), do not see the outlying islands as fertile ground for garnering support.
As examples of targeted policies, President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) won the 2020 presidential election due to younger voters, while former Kaohsiung mayor Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) won the local election by calling on Kaohsiung residents working in northern Taiwan to return to vote.
In next month’s elections, how to persuade minorities to vote for you instead of your opponent will be crucial.
Jet Yang is editor-in-chief of Knowing Media Group.
Translated by Chien Yan-ru
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