Until recently, the war narrative on Gaza has been very largely controlled by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Israel’s Ministry of Defense. Its international reputation might have plummeted with the killing of more than 20,000 Palestinians, the wounding of more than 50,000 and the destruction of much of Gaza, but the IDF could still sell a plausible narrative of a severely weakened Hamas, even claiming that the war in northern Gaza was largely complete and that success in southern Gaza would follow before too long.
The narrative was helped by severe difficulties for the few journalists still operating in Gaza, including the risk to their personal safety, while the international press corps was stuck in Jerusalem and dependent on IDF sources for much of their information.
That changed as a different picture began to emerge. First there was a lack of evidence to support the IDF’s claim of a Hamas headquarters under al-Shifa hospital, then the IDF could not identify the location of the Israeli hostages, despite having some of the world’s most advanced intelligence.
There have been two further incidents within the past two weeks. On Dec. 12, there was a skillful triple ambush staged by Hamas paramilitaries in a part of Gaza supposedly controlled by Israeli forces. An IDF unit was ambushed and sustained casualties. Further troops were sent to aid that unit, and they were then ambushed, as were reinforcements.
Ten IDF soldiers were reported killed and others seriously wounded, but it was their seniority that counted, including as it did, a colonel and three majors from the elite Golani Brigade. That Hamas, supposedly devastated and with thousands of troops already killed, could mount such an operation anywhere in Gaza, let alone a district reportedly already under IDF control, should raise doubts about the idea that Israel is making substantial progress in the war.
A further indication came a few days later, when three Israeli hostages succeeded in getting away from their captors, only to be killed by IDF soldiers, even though they were shirtless and carrying a white flag. What has since made that worse — and is causing considerable anger in Israel — is that calls from the hostages were picked up by an audio-equipped IDF search dog five days before they were killed.
There are other, wider indications of the IDF’s problems. Official casualty figures have shown more than 460 military personnel killed in Gaza, Israel and the occupied West Bank and about 1,900 wounded. Yet other sources suggest far greater numbers of wounded.
Ten days ago, Israel’s leading daily, Yedioth Ahronoth, published information obtained from the Ministry of Defense’s rehabilitation department. The head of the department, Limor Luria, was reported as saying that more than 2,000 IDF soldiers had been registered as disabled since the conflict began — with 58 percent of all those it had treated suffering from severe injuries to their hands and feet — suggesting a far higher casualty toll than the official figures. Meanwhile, the Times of Israel has reported the number of injured IDF soldiers, Israel Police and other security forces as 6,125. There have also been a number of friendly fire casualties, with the same paper reporting 20 out of 105 deaths due to friendly fire or accidents during fighting.
Overall, the IDF is still following the well-rehearsed Dahiya doctrine of massive force in responding to irregular war, causing extensive social and economic damage, undermining the will of Hamas insurgents to fight while deterring future threats to Israel’s security. Yet it is going badly wrong. Criticism is coming from unexpected quarters, including from former British defence minister Ben Wallace, who has warned of an impact lasting 50 years. Even US President Joe Biden’s administration is becoming thoroughly uneasy at what is unfolding, yet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the war Cabinet are determined to continue for as long as they can.
It is worth recognizing why. The Oct. 7 attacks and the brutality involved struck Israel’s assumption of security to the core, which means that the great majority of Israeli Jews have so far continued to support Netanyahu’s response. Even that is fraying and is made worse by the IDF’s killing of the three hostages.
An effect of all this is that IDF commanders are coming under immense pressure to succeed, and would go as far as the war Cabinet would allow. Many of those commanders are highly intelligent if inevitably single-minded people, and would now know that for all Netanyahu’s rhetoric, Hamas — or at least its ideology — cannot be defeated by military force. They also know that while talks are stalling, pressure from the families of hostages might soon result in another humanitarian pause. Therefore, the IDF’s aim would be to damage Hamas as much as they could, as quickly as they could, while they could, whatever the cost to Palestinians. For evidence of this approach, witness this week’s intense air raids.
What makes that possible is Netanyahu’s dependence on an extremist minority of religious fundamentalists and trenchant Zionists in his government. They would not have anything like wider support in Israel were it not for the Oct. 7 tragedy, yet they are increasingly harming Israel’s long-term security. Not only does Israel risk becoming a pariah state, even among its allies, but it would also fuel a generation of radical opposition from a reconstituted Hamas or its inevitable successor.
It needs saving from itself, but that would depend, more than anything, on Biden and the people around him. Perhaps pushed on by the rapidly changing public mood in western Europe, they must recognize their role in bringing an immediate end to this conflict.
Paul Rogers is an emeritus professor of peace studies at Bradford University and an honorary fellow at the UK’s Joint Service Command and Staff College.
To The Honorable Legislative Speaker Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜): We would like to extend our sincerest regards to you for representing Taiwan at the inauguration of US President Donald Trump on Monday. The Taiwanese-American community was delighted to see that Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan speaker not only received an invitation to attend the event, but successfully made the trip to the US. We sincerely hope that you took this rare opportunity to share Taiwan’s achievements in freedom, democracy and economic development with delegations from other countries. In recent years, Taiwan’s economic growth and world-leading technology industry have been a source of pride for Taiwanese-Americans.
Next week, the nation is to celebrate the Lunar New Year break. Unfortunately, cold winds are a-blowing, literally and figuratively. The Central Weather Administration has warned of an approaching cold air mass, while obstinate winds of chaos eddy around the Legislative Yuan. English theologian Thomas Fuller optimistically pointed out in 1650 that “it’s always darkest before the dawn.” We could paraphrase by saying the coldest days are just before the renewed hope of spring. However, one must temper any optimism about the damage being done in the legislature by the opposition Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), under
To our readers: Due to the Lunar New Year holiday, from Sunday, Jan. 26, through Sunday, Feb. 2, the Taipei Times will have a reduced format without our regular editorials and opinion pieces. From Tuesday to Saturday the paper will not be delivered to subscribers, but will be available for purchase at convenience stores. Subscribers will receive the editions they missed once normal distribution resumes on Sunday, Feb. 2. The paper returns to its usual format on Monday, Feb. 3, when our regular editorials and opinion pieces will also be resumed.
This year would mark the 30th anniversary of the establishment of the India Taipei Association (ITA) in Taipei and the Taipei Economic and Cultural Center (TECC) in New Delhi. From the vision of “Look East” in the 1990s, India’s policy has evolved into a resolute “Act East,” which complements Taiwan’s “New Southbound Policy.” In these three decades, India and Taiwan have forged a rare partnership — one rooted in shared democratic values, a commitment to openness and pluralism, and clear complementarities in trade and technology. The government of India has rolled out the red carpet for Taiwanese investors with attractive financial incentives
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