On Wednesday last week, Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) Chairman and presidential candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) said that if elected president, he would assure Taiwan, the US and China that he would not support Taiwanese independence, nor would he accept China’s unification with Taiwan by force (武力統一). He would continue to maintain a middle course in the “Taiwan-US-China equilateral triangle,” which he believes is the only feasible foreign policy Taiwan can pursue.
The international relations theory of the so-called “equilateral triangle” says that it is only by keeping an equal distance between the world’s two greatest powers without choosing a side that a smaller power such as Taiwan can gain benefits from relations with the two great powers. The theory, based on Singapore as a model, proposes that Taiwan has a chance to play a leading role by serving as a bridge or even a mediator between the US and China.
International triangular politics is like this: A, B and C. With A as the strongest country, it would likely exert pressure on the less strong country B and the least strong country C to get what it wants. Studying the behavior of states suggests that in response, the less strong country B and the least strong country C would be likely to form an alliance to balance against the stronger power A. However, if A joins forces with C to fight against B, this is usually because B is on the rise and is developing a strategic posture that might threaten countries A and C, so to protect their interests they would likely join forces to negate the threat. When the A-C relationship improves, country B would likely attempt to weaken the alliance by currying favor with A to put pressure on country C.
Applying this to the situation in the Taiwan Strait, A is the US, B is China and C is of course Taiwan. From a Taiwanese perspective, if Taiwan wants to advance its national interest, it should convince the US that Taiwan would be a cooperative partner and strive to benefit from its partnership with the US. Once China tries to improve its relations with the US, Taiwan should either convince the US that it cannot be replaced, or convince the US that being on the same side as Taiwan better serves the US interest — such as their shared values, Taiwan’s geostrategic position and its crucial place in the technology supply chain. In either case, the best solution for Taiwan is always to stand on the same side as the US. The only question that remains is how close Taiwan should get with the US.
There are two problems with Ko’s theory. First, he does not understand the weakness of Taiwan’s international status and sovereignty. Second, Taiwan is the target of China’s unification attempts, and is at the center of a geopolitical conflict, which means that it is difficult for Taiwan to play a role similar to Singapore’s and gain advantages from close relations with both the US and China. If Singapore were in the geographical position of Taiwan, it would find itself in the same geopolitical dilemma.
Whether in geography or politics, three entities in proximity to one another must be equal in size and strength to be equidistant. Ko’s statement reveals that he does not understand Taiwan’s weak international status and sovereignty. His inclusion of “unification” as an option in the disguise of the term “non-forceful unification” is an attempt to draw the “enemy state” closer to Taiwan, and to send the signal that he and the TPP are for sale on the issue.
A saying in political science goes: Sitting on the fence is a good strategy when the fence is stable enough. This is exactly the basics of politics that Ko will never be able to grasp.
Kirk Lim is a civil servant.
Translated by Eddy Chang
The return of US president-elect Donald Trump to the White House has injected a new wave of anxiety across the Taiwan Strait. For Taiwan, an island whose very survival depends on the delicate and strategic support from the US, Trump’s election victory raises a cascade of questions and fears about what lies ahead. His approach to international relations — grounded in transactional and unpredictable policies — poses unique risks to Taiwan’s stability, economic prosperity and geopolitical standing. Trump’s first term left a complicated legacy in the region. On the one hand, his administration ramped up arms sales to Taiwan and sanctioned
The Taiwanese have proven to be resilient in the face of disasters and they have resisted continuing attempts to subordinate Taiwan to the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Nonetheless, the Taiwanese can and should do more to become even more resilient and to be better prepared for resistance should the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) try to annex Taiwan. President William Lai (賴清德) argues that the Taiwanese should determine their own fate. This position continues the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) tradition of opposing the CCP’s annexation of Taiwan. Lai challenges the CCP’s narrative by stating that Taiwan is not subordinate to the
US president-elect Donald Trump is to return to the White House in January, but his second term would surely be different from the first. His Cabinet would not include former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo and former US national security adviser John Bolton, both outspoken supporters of Taiwan. Trump is expected to implement a transactionalist approach to Taiwan, including measures such as demanding that Taiwan pay a high “protection fee” or requiring that Taiwan’s military spending amount to at least 10 percent of its GDP. However, if the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) invades Taiwan, it is doubtful that Trump would dispatch
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) has been dubbed Taiwan’s “sacred mountain.” In the past few years, it has invested in the construction of fabs in the US, Japan and Europe, and has long been a world-leading super enterprise — a source of pride for Taiwanese. However, many erroneous news reports, some part of cognitive warfare campaigns, have appeared online, intentionally spreading the false idea that TSMC is not really a Taiwanese company. It is true that TSMC depositary receipts can be purchased on the US securities market, and the proportion of foreign investment in the company is high. However, this reflects the
RSS