The ascent of Geert Wilders’ party has thrown Dutch climate ambitions into limbo, with environmental groups warning of “devastating” effects for progress on green targets.
The shock victory of the populist Freedom Party in this week’s election echoed a surge in support for far-right groups across Europe, driven mainly by concerns over living costs and immigration. While Wilders’ pledges particularly appealed to voters seeking to limit migrant numbers, his party’s manifesto includes proposals to stop reducing carbon-dioxide emissions and put key climate agreements “through the shredder.”
On the day after the vote the mood at the Netherlands’ climate ministry was best described as funereal, a person familiar with the matter said.
Many officials mourned the election result, afraid that their years of hard work would be dismantled by a potential new government, the person said.
Disheartened staff members were consoled by the first — and perhaps last — Dutch Minister for Climate and Energy Policy Rob Jetten, who made rounds through the ministry after his Democrats 66 party lost support just a few hours earlier. It is now set to gain just nine seats, down from 24 in the previous government.
The Netherlands has only recently come in sight of its 2030 climate goal to reduce emissions 55 percent compared to 1990 levels. The outgoing government warned last month that “rapid and ambitious” implementation of decarbonization plans was still crucial to achieving that aim.
While Wilders has said that he wants to exit the Paris climate accord and dismantle a fund aimed at reducing harmful emissions, it is not yet clear what direction a new government would take, as it would have to work alongside coalition partners with different political priorities.
The country also has EU-level climate commitments it must comply with. The bloc is preparing to devise a 2040 emission-reduction goal next year, with EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, a Dutch national, pledging to defend a target of at least a 90 percent net reduction versus 1990. However, a new goal that is to be proposed after a new commission takes office next year would require political endorsement from EU leaders, and a potential U-turn by the Netherlands from its traditionally green stance could complicate Europe’s push.
“For investors who are convinced that the future will be net zero, it will be a negative signal. For investors that felt hampered by all the policy measures aiming at net zero, they might feel relief in the short term,” ABN Amro Bank NV chief economist Sandra Phlippen said of Wilders’ electoral success. It would be “interesting to watch” if his policies would be “paddled back,” she added.
Four Greenpeace campaigners kayaked into the pond in front of the prime minister’s office in The Hague on Thursday to protest the election result. The campaigners displayed a banner which called for “no climate denier as our prime minister.”
The election result is “devastating for climate, nature and people,” Greenpeace Netherlands director Andy Palmen said. “Wilders denies the climate crisis and denies science; it is not acceptable that he might become our next prime minister.”
Greenpeace is calling on the other parties that are needed to form a government to “take responsibility” and address the climate issue, Palmen said.
“Populist parties on the far-right side are on the rise in Europe, but lack solutions for the serious challenges we are facing as humanity,” he added.
The Netherlands’ fragmented political landscape means that Wilders faces a long series of negotiations if he wants to become the Dutch prime minister. Wilders has been courted by the Farmers’ Citizen Movement, known by its Dutch initials BBB, for a possible collaboration. The farmer party is set to have seven seats in the lower house of parliament and became the largest party in the upper house earlier this year.
As the Netherlands has sought to curb the environmental impact of agriculture, it has been battling the fury of its farmers. Last year, the government pushed to halve nitrogen emissions by 2030, which led to farmers blocking highways in protest. The plan — which was watered down earlier this year — aims at reducing livestock by one-third as the sector is a key source of nitrogen emissions.
The BBB, led by politician Caroline van der Plas, made a statement by bringing seven tractors to the Hague on Friday to represent the seven seats they now have.
“Support for climate measures will be way lower in this new parliament,” Groningen University political institutions and behavior professor Kees Aarts said. “The implementation of climate measures will be delayed and that is risky. This is a very bad development.”
With assistance from Sarah Jacob, Ewa Krukowska and Gina Turner.
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