Only 9.3 percent of Taiwanese polled said that they consider China to be “trustworthy,” a survey released on Monday by Academia Sinica showed.
The survey, conducted by telephone from Sept. 14 to 19, asked respondents for their views on identity, China and the US. Most identified themselves as Taiwanese and said they do not trust China, but also that they do not trust the US, which a researcher said was based on concerns that Washington would not commit troops to defend Taiwan if China attacked.
However, the polling also showed that a majority supported US flybys and transits in the Taiwan Strait, and believed visits to Taiwan by high-level US officials helped to garner support in Washington for Taiwan’s defense.
Concerns that the US would not defend Taiwan are based on observations of the war in Ukraine, where the US has said it would not put boots on the ground, Soochow University Department of Sociology assistant professor Pan Hsin-hsin (潘欣欣) said.
Of course, that does not mean the US is not helping Ukraine in other ways. It sends equipment, conducts training and provides vital reconnaissance data, and its decision not to commit troops is out of concern that doing so would escalate the conflict globally.
However, compared with the potential fall of Ukraine, the stakes are higher for the US and its allies if Taiwan were to fall to China. Much has already been written about how Taiwan’s high-tech semiconductor chips are vital to the global economy and Taiwan is an important part of the US’ first island chain strategy. Chinese Communist Party control of Taiwan would directly endanger US interests in Japan, South Korea and the Philippines. It would also empower China to project its forces outward into the Pacific, where they would become a direct threat to US territories in the Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, American Samoa and Hawaii.
A Chinese takeover of Taiwan would also put China firmly in control of the Taiwan Strait and the Bashi Channel, which would disrupt commercial shipping through the region. China would have the means to stop container ships for random inspections and to put tariffs on shipping, which would increase delivery times and costs.
Given the economic and strategic importance of Taiwan, it is highly unlikely that the US would not commit troops to its defense. Retired US Army general Wesley Clark argued as much in an interview with CNN, saying that it was becoming “more and more clear that the United States will commit forces to defend Taiwan if China attacks.”
Clark also said that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) “has many problems other than Taiwan” that he needs to focus on, so there was no need to “overreact” to Chinese rhetoric on the issue.
Given mainstream opinion among Taiwanese, who have a general distrust of China and an aversion to identifying as “Chinese,” it is odd that the opposition candidates for January’s presidential election are so keen to espouse cross-strait peace agreements and economic cooperation.
The focus of all candidates should be on keeping China at arm’s length and encouraging Washington to formally commit to defending Taiwan. Such a commitment would go a long way toward improving trust of the US in Taiwan and the confidence of Taiwanese in the nation’s military, which has been the subject of scrutiny due to espionage and poor-quality training.
As the election draws near, candidates should carefully heed opinion polls in formulating their campaign platforms. They should focus on military reform, economic decoupling from China and greater military ties with the US. The longer these things are delayed, the less prepared Taiwan would be to resist Chinese aggression.
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