The nationwide buzz over a potential joint opposition presidential bid between the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) stands in contrast to its moribund state, with signs of the negotiations heading for a breakdown. The reason the “blue-white alliance” has turned into a Gordian knot is that both parties fail to see eye to eye on political stances and ideology.
However, no one is walking more of a tightrope than Hon Hai Precision Industry Co founder Terry Gou (郭台銘).
Gou can be likened to Shakespeare’s Hamlet, the Danish prince who vacillates between action and inaction. In Gou’s case, it is vacillating between seeing his independent campaign through to the end or calling it quits. After all, Gou found himself caught between three powers: the US, China and the Taiwanese public.
On the one hand, he has China holding a knife behind his back, with Chinese authorities investigating the company in China with tax and compliance issues.
On the other hand, the US is nudging him to run by helping Tammy Lai (賴佩霞), his running mate, “accelerate” her application process of forfeiting her US citizenship, which under normal circumstances would take three to six months, but took Lai less than 40 days.
Caught between Scylla and Charybdis, Gou has another issue. As the Central Election Commission regulations say that Gou and Lai had to prove by Thursday last week that they had 289,667 signatures to be eligible to register as candidates, the pair made it over the threshold with more than 1.03 million signatures, a number that shows he has a degree of support and that he would let down a fair share of people if he were to quit. It was probably due to the pressure of these three powers that Gou did not make a grand show when submitting the signatures.
As Gou’s popularity has nosedived in recent months, TPP Chairman and presidential candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲), or New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜), the KMT’s candidate, are still thinking of courting his support.
According to polling, if either Ko or Hou win over Gou’s supporters, the effect would amount to a support rate increase of about 7 to 10 percentage points. Rather than looking for an ally who does not share the same party goals, perhaps the KMT could reconsider Gou as a potential ally. Given Gou’s history with the KMT, albeit one with histrionics and drama, it is apparent that Gou’s ideology falls in line with the KMT and would prove an easier candidate to cozy up to than with Ko.
Gou’s forte is that he does not have any party baggage, nor does he have to deal with the issue of legislative seats or party ballots. For supporters of the pan-blue camp, Gou could be a more “comfortable” solution than Ko, not to mention that a large percentage of Gou’s supporters are independent voters or young people, which overlaps with Ko’s supporters. If allied together, the KMT would be able to bring Ko’s haughtiness down a notch and could deal a blow to Ko’s support. Gou’s diplomatic vision and monetary resources could give an edge to the KMT’s campaign. Furthermore, Gou and the KMT see eye to eye on a host of issues, including economic development and cross-strait policy.
Vice versa, if Ko gets to Gou first, Ko would solidify second place and obtain more than 300 signature collection offices as his campaign stations overnight. It would also take a further step in marginalizing Hou from the race, a move that the KMT would have to take caution over.
Gou’s Hamlet moment could become a turning point in the campaign for either the KMT or the TPP. The only question that remains is who gets to him first.
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