With the ongoing Ukraine war, it is hard to see past the shock of another major conflict breaking out in the world. Hamas, the Palestinian Muslim organization that runs Gaza City, has orchestrated an unprecedented assault on Israel with thousands of rockets and fighters by land, sea and air over the weekend.
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) said that the conflict demonstrated the “horrors of war” and reiterated the importance of cross-strait peace.
While the Ukraine war taught Taiwan that conflict is not a thing of the past, the situation in Israel could teach it a thing or two about the dangers of complacency, disunity and the potential for strife.
Ever since its founding, Israel has been engaged in wars with neighboring Arab and Muslim nations, as it strives for normalization, while hoping that one day its adversaries would lay down their weapons and acknowledge its statehood. Diplomatically, the signing of the Abraham Accords by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain in 2020 to recognize Israel’s sovereignty has set examples for other neighboring countries to follow. The US’ recent push for a grand bargain to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel is the final piece in the puzzle for Israel’s complete normalization.
In terms of military power, Israel seems to have cracked the Hamas problem with technology, with the introduction of the Iron Beam laser system and the Iron Dome missile system. Along with its “iron wall,” Israel likely considered its war against Hamas over in terms of strategy, military prowess and diplomacy.
Perhaps it is this complacency and overconfidence in its missile intercept system that had Israel hosting the Tribe of Nova music festival less than 5km from Gaza City. Years of false alarms and overwhelming dominance over the enemy had tripped Israelis up, and its citizens and military personnel were not able to react quickly when Hamas breached the border.
Similarly, this kind of complacency could easily take root in the minds of Taiwanese. With the launch of its first domestically built submarine, Taiwan could easily think it could rest on its laurels for reaching a new high in its defense capabilities. With China’s economy in tatters, Taiwan forming closer ties with democratic allies, and years of peace, the Taiwanese public could become lax.
As the conflict in Israel has shown, vigilance should never be lost, not a second or minute. The old Chinese saying could not have put it better: “Thrive in calamity and perish in soft living.”
Taiwan should continue ratcheting up its efforts to improve the military conscription program and develop domestic weapons.
Taiwan should think about the possibility of a proxy war, just as it was Hamas, not the Palestinian government, that attacked Israel. Tunghai University political science professor Shen Yu-chung (沈有忠) said that China could plan terrorist attacks, hire mercenaries or incite a pro-China third party to launch attacks against Taiwan, such as creating chaos at elections or targeting infrastructure.
Aside from staying vigilant and preparing for different possibilities, the Taiwanese public should work on bolstering solidarity and consensus to counter China.
As the US, Taiwan’s biggest ally, is now involved in the Ukraine quagmire and could be dragged into yet another conflict in the Middle East, China could be led to misjudge the situation. To prevent that, Taiwan would have to boost its own defenses if it seeks to keep China at bay.
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