The ultimate end of a situation in which communists are in charge of a capitalist economy is economic depression, with China’s economic woes the prime example. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) regime has suspended monthly reports on youth unemployment, which had previously been at a record high, going beyond 20 percent and rising.
It is often joked about in academic circles that when a national laboratory has made a great discovery, the institution will quickly call a news conference to announce it to the world, but when the research has been a total failure, the institution will keep it under wraps.
The manifestation of China’s economic depression would most likely cause the demise of the CCP, not dissimilar to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Less scientific, more metaphysical predictions came from the prophecies of ancient Chinese mystical books, Iron Plate Diagrams (鐵板圖) and Tui Bei Tu (推背圖).
Both books appear to predict that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) will be the last emperor of the CCP, brought down by his subordinates. Many of his subordinates have been “forced to disappear,” including his foreign minister, defense minister and some high-ranking military officers. Some political observers think Xi actually believes the prophecies of the two books.
A military coup, a political coup and a civil revolt are the three potential major crises Xi faces.
It has been quipped that Chinese military leaders understand it is easier to attack the Zhongnanhai — the center of power in Beijing — than to cross the Taiwan Strait, just as a Russian counterpart found it easier to attack Moscow than invade Kyiv.
In immature democracies, military coups often occur, and they even happen in more mature democracies. There are even some instances of political coups by high-ranking officials.
However, these are the power games of ruling elites and would not grant democracy to the people. Worse, coup leaders are, more often than not, more interested in extending their power beyond the “status quo” at the expense of constitutions and democracy.
The CCP has already gone through several coups, some of them successful, such as Chairman Mao Zedong’s (毛澤東) Cultural Revolution, the overthrow of the gang of four by Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平), and the failed coup of former Chinese minister of defense Lin Biao (林彪).
It would not be surprising to see another coup under Xi’s watch.
In a democratic system, power is already in the hands of the people, so accommodating revolutionary ideas and implementing changes requires a grassroots movement. Short of a popular uprising, China will not become a democratic country anytime soon.
The fact that Xi is afraid of military personnel having unnecessary social contact speaks volumes about how worried he is about a popular uprising combining the power of the military, political elites and the people.
A dilemma in the Qing Dynasty was well noted: “Without enlightening the people, resisting the West will be futile; but educating the people means the imperial system will perish.”
The same dilemma applies to the CCP today.
Not long ago, exiled Chinese dissident Wei Jingsheng (魏京生), one of the most well-known leaders in the Chinese democracy movement, was opposed to Taiwan’s independence. A strong believer in democracy would not stop other people from seeking democracy and happiness. We now find that people in the Chinese democracy movement almost unanimously support democratic Taiwan. They have gone further, proclaiming that Taiwan is free and part of the democratic world, not a part of China.
That indicates that the Chinese democracy movement is mature enough to have gone beyond nationalism and racism.
When the free flow of information is enabled through cell phones with satellite connectivity or otherwise, it could lead to a Berlin Wall moment for the CCP.
The world, especially people in the overseas Chinese democracy movement, are watching and will certainly step in to help Chinese achieve their own dreams of pursuing democracy, liberty, justice and happiness for all.
James J.Y. Hsu is a retired professor of theoretical physics.
Because much of what former US president Donald Trump says is unhinged and histrionic, it is tempting to dismiss all of it as bunk. Yet the potential future president has a populist knack for sounding alarums that resonate with the zeitgeist — for example, with growing anxiety about World War III and nuclear Armageddon. “We’re a failing nation,” Trump ranted during his US presidential debate against US Vice President Kamala Harris in one particularly meandering answer (the one that also recycled urban myths about immigrants eating cats). “And what, what’s going on here, you’re going to end up in World War
On Tuesday, President William Lai (賴清德) met with a delegation from the Hoover Institution, a think tank based at Stanford University in California, to discuss strengthening US-Taiwan relations and enhancing peace and stability in the region. The delegation was led by James Ellis Jr, co-chair of the institution’s Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region project and former commander of the US Strategic Command. It also included former Australian minister for foreign affairs Marise Payne, influential US academics and other former policymakers. Think tank diplomacy is an important component of Taiwan’s efforts to maintain high-level dialogue with other nations with which it does
The arrest in France of Telegram founder and CEO Pavel Durov has brought into sharp focus one of the major conflicts of our age. On one hand, we want privacy in our digital lives, which is why we like the kind of end-to-end encryption Telegram promises. On the other, we want the government to be able to stamp out repugnant online activities — such as child pornography or terrorist plotting. The reality is that we cannot have our cake and eat it, too. Durov last month was charged with complicity in crimes taking place on the app, including distributing child pornography,
On Sept. 2, Elbridge Colby, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development, wrote an article for the Wall Street Journal called “The US and Taiwan Must Change Course” that defends his position that the US and Taiwan are not doing enough to deter the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from taking Taiwan. Colby is correct, of course: the US and Taiwan need to do a lot more or the PRC will invade Taiwan like Russia did against Ukraine. The US and Taiwan have failed to prepare properly to deter war. The blame must fall on politicians and policymakers