Politicians and pundits always say that the next major election will be the most significant in a generation. Presidential elections affect a nation’s future and can hasten or derail trends.
The thing to watch in the run-up to next year’s election is what would happen to the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) as a viable political force. The dramatis personae are KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫), Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) Chairman Ko Wen-je (柯文哲), Hon Hai Precision Industry Co founder Terry Gou (郭台銘) and KMT New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜), in that order.
What the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) does, and how its candidate, Vice President William Lai (賴清德), fares, do not affect that list. It is not four more years of DPP government that the KMT should fear — it can survive four more years in opposition — it is its unimpeded descent into political irrelevance.
Chu has a reputation as a shrewd political strategist, although it is becoming difficult to see why. He supports an “anti-green alliance” — anyone other than the DPP — but it is not clear whether any other prospective candidates see the value in, or the existence of, such an alliance.
Ko has said he would campaign to the end, sending the signal that he has no interest in pairing up with Gou or the KMT. Nor should he, given that he is nipping at the heels of the frontrunner, Lai.
Hou’s campaign manager, King Pu-tsun (金溥聰), has declared war on Ko and Gou, and Gou himself has let it be known that he remains open to cooperating with the KMT, but that it has rebuffed his offer.
In all fairness, Gou could have offered it as an ultimatum, not as a friendly gesture, as his strategy over the past few weeks appears to have been attempting to hollow out support for the KMT at the local level, among its factions and vote captains, to bite into Hou’s support. He has been taking advantage of the formerly cash-rich KMT’s decline in fortunes since its illicitly gained assets were confiscated.
It is not even clear at this late stage whether Gou intends to stand as an independent if he cannot latch onto either the TPP or the KMT campaigns, and neither seems to want to have anything to do with him.
Despite Chu’s contention that internal KMT polling shows that Hou has “surpassed Ko and is gaining on Lai,” most independent polls show little variation on the theme of Lai in front, Ko close behind and Hou languishing in third.
Despite calls to make the internal polling results public, Chu has refused, saying there is no obligation to reveal them. Surely, if they are as he says they are, it would be beneficial to Hou’s campaign to release them.
Chu appears to be so obsessed with bringing down the DPP and does not care how it is done.
However, if Hou does not win, he would still be mayor. Even if he were to be Ko’s vice presidential candidate, the KMT’s status would be greatly diminished. As party chairman, it would be Chu left holding the can for the KMT’s loss and reduced status.
If Ko were to win, or if Gou enters the race and wins, neither would bring the insistence on “one China” or the historical ties with China that the KMT has. Their pro-China stance is more practical than historical or ideological.
If Chu does not want the KMT to fall to the wayside, he needs to concentrate on saving it, not obsessing on how to bring the DPP down.
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