The presidential candidates of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) either are, or have been, mayors of special municipalities.
William Lai (賴清德) of the DPP was mayor of Tainan, premier and is now vice-president of Taiwan. Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) of the TPP completed two terms as Taipei mayor. Hou You-yi (侯友宜) of the KMT is now in his second term as mayor of New Taipei City.
Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜), who became mayor of Kaohsiung in 2018, threw his hat in the ring in the 2020 presidential race, going head-to-head with President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文). Tsai, a politician without any prior local governance or legislative experience, secured her second term as president. Before that, Tsai ran against then-incumbent president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) in 2012, but was defeated, finally triumphing in the 2016 presidential election.
She has shown that people can take different routes to the presidential office. Mayorship, especially in the six special municipalities, as a stepping stone to the top job is nothing new. Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) and Ma were mayors of Taipei who were elected by popular vote before they became presidents. Before them, Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) was appointed mayor of Taipei and provincial governor of Taiwan. His one-time rival Lin Yang-kang (林洋港) had a similar experience, with Nantou County commissioner to add to his portfolio. Lien Chan (連戰) and James Soong (宋楚瑜) were appointed Taiwan provincial governors without ever having run for mayor or commissioner.
Soong was unique in that he once was the provincial governor of Taiwan elected by popular vote, which was Taiwan’s version of the “Yeltsin effect.” As democracy took root in Taiwan, Lien and Soong failed in their bids to make it to the presidential office.
However, the electorate can be exceedingly fickle, and this was reflected in the election results in 2016 to 2018 and 2020 to last year.
Despite having demonstrated outstanding leadership in responding to COVID-19, former Minister of health and welfare Chen Shih-chung (陳時中) was still defeated in the Taipei mayoral election last year. The biggest challenge for every political figure is to work out how to be in tune and in touch with voters and gain an understanding of their political mood swings. In the era after former president Chiang Ching-kuo (蔣經國), former premiers such as Lee Huan (李煥), Hau Pei-tsun (郝柏村), Lien and Vincent Siew (蕭萬長), appointed by Lee Teng-hui, were mostly Chiang’s men and a necessary deployment for the struggle against the opposition non-mainstream faction.
Others such as Tang Fei (唐飛), Chang Chun-hsiung (張俊雄), You Si-kun (游錫堃), Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) and Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) during the Chen Shui-bian administration were DPP members previously involved in the **dangwai** (黨外,“outside the party”) movement and served as civil representatives, with many of them having been defense attorneys during the 1979 Kaohsiung Incident.
Some of them even had experience as local government heads and were elected by popular vote: Hsieh was Kaohsiung mayor, Su a Pingtung County commissioner and then-Taipei County (the old name for New Taipei City) commissioner, and You served as Yilan County commissioner.
During Ma’s time in office, the choice of premier carried sentiments of favoritism. Liu Chao-hsuan (劉兆玄), Wu Den-yih (吳敦義), Sean Chen (陳沖), Jiang Yi-huah (江宜樺), Mao Chi-kuo (毛治國) and Simon Chang (張善政) were all handpicked by Ma, with Wu being the odd one out: He served as the Kaohsiung mayor and Nantou County commissioner.
During Tsai’s administration, premiers such as Lin Chuan (林全), Lai, Su and Chen Chien-jen (陳建仁) came from mixed backgrounds, with some possessing local governance experience and some not.
Data have shown that those who had served as local government heads or legislators seemed to have an edge over others in terms of running for the highest office. It remains to be seen if Hon Hai Precision Industry Co founder Terry Gou (郭台銘) can break the mold by transitioning from businessperson to politician.
Ma made the same mistake from 2008 to 2016 as Chen did from 2000 to 2008, the only difference being that the KMT was then the opposition party, and as democracy blossomed and brought about transitional justice and the promotion of the “alternation of generations” in the party, legacies of the KMT’s authoritarian period were slowly banished.
As a result, the KMT has taken the approach of “pushing the way to the top from the local level.” In 2018, Han rose to power on a wave of populism and rhetoric, inflicting damage on Tsai’s governance.
However, the rise of Han has illustrated that an unwinding democracy is a hotbed of atypical political figures. In the same year, Hou secured a sweeping victory in the New Taipei mayoral election and became the star of the KMT. In contrast, the DPP met its Waterloo in last year’s local elections. Even though former Taoyuan mayor Cheng Wen-tsan (鄭文燦), former Hsinchu City mayor Lin Chih-chien (林智堅) and former Keelung mayor Lin Yu-chang (林右昌) all performed suitably during their tenures, they were prevented from passing on the DPP’s legacy, while their political careers ground to a halt.
Tainan Mayor Huang Wei-che (黃偉哲) managed to beat the headwinds twice in a row and secured a second term last year; but it remains to be seen if he can make it beyond the local level.
Although former Taipei mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) finished his final term, he has proven himself to be an ineffective figure. Hau’s example has shown that despite sharing identical political experiences, each politician can make a different career for themselves.
Chen Shui-bian once predicted that Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) would one day bid for the presidency. Given his heritage and Taipei mayorship, it is a strong possibility. New Power Party (NPP) Chairwoman Claire Wang (王婉諭) said that all politics are local politics, and only by being in touch with the locals would the NPP have a future. Staying engaged at the grassroots level is the basic principle for garnering support, but two things should be noted.
One is the emergence of fast-evolving digital technologies that have changed how political communication takes place. Ko’s clever use of social media has shown that local mobilization and connections are no longer the only way of campaigning.
Second, local elite politicians who have set their eyes on the top job should possess a grand vision for the state, as well as manage their cities well instead of overtly focusing on either objective. Han, who garnered immense popularity, lost the presidential election and his seat as Kaohsiung mayor when he was engulfed by his own presidential hubris.
Although Hou and his catchphrase, “do things right,” won the favor of the electorate by evading ideological conflict in the local elections last year, his lack of political vision and issues have proven to be his Achilles’ heel in the campaign so far.
Wu, Hsieh and Su aspired to gain the presidential seat while having served as the head of a local government, but their timing was wrong and they lacked opportunity. In contrast, opportunity seemed to have fallen from the sky for Han.
As Taiwan became a thriving democracy after Chiang Ching-kuo, none of the former vice presidents Lien, Annette Lu (呂秀蓮), Siew or Wu could make it into the Presidential Office, and it was the same with all former premiers. Chen Chien-jen has transitioned from vice president to premier, and could still be worth a shot.
If Lai can secure victory, then perhaps his example can break the jinx that vice-presidents and premiers both share and pave the way for a new pattern. For the change of the party in power to go from an eight-year interval, to 12, 16 or possibly even further, shows that democracy has become a consensus in Taiwan, and that every election is a proof of that consensus.
Translated by Rita Wang
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