A few days ago, the Wagner mercenary group trained its guns away from Ukraine and moved into Russia, initially pushing on to Moscow before changing course. Its stated intention of seeking revenge on Russia’s military leadership commanded the world’s attention over the weekend. Even though the situation was resolved before a major conflict broke out on Russian soil, and Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin agreed to retreat to Belarus, the potential repercussions of this apparent attempted coup continue to command attention the world over — not least from within China.
After all, there is a high degree of similarity between the internal political power structures consolidated by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平). Both dictators have a firm grip on power, and during their respective periods in office have extended their hold on the reins of state; neither man has a designated or acknowledged successor waiting in the wings.
This extreme centralization of power means that as soon as the authority or security of the dictator is challenged, there is the potential for insurrection or a coup.
That is not to say it will happen this way. The abortive attempted coup by the Wagner Group serves to remind the international community that there are relatively few precedents that can be used as a basis for debate or preparedness for what might happen. That is, what would a Russia without Putin, or for that matter a China without Xi, look like?
Ironically, and precisely because Xi is a dictator with a firm grip on power, any discussion on this matter is very unlikely to be countenanced within China.
Putin’s travails — be they the military quagmire he has orchestrated in Ukraine, the international sanctions the invasion has brought on his head, or indeed the internal dissent the world is now seeing evidence of — are certainly being closely followed by Xi and weighing heavily on his mind. They are likely to give pause for thought in Beijing’s corridors of power about how it approaches the “Taiwan issue.”
Huang Wei-ping is a former think tank researcher and a Kaohsiung resident.
Translated by Paul Cooper
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