US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday arrived in Beijing to meet with Chinese officials. He is the highest-level US official to visit China since US President Joe Biden took office in 2021.
The trip was originally scheduled for February, but was canceled after Washington detected a Chinese surveillance balloon crossing over the US. Even after the incident, the Chinese government has not stopped its provocative behavior. Chinese military aircraft continue to intrude into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone over the South China Sea, and Chinese fleets have carried out dangerous operations in the Taiwan Strait.
It has also been reported that Chinese spying facilities in Cuba have been upgraded, Chinese companies have smuggled fentanyl into the US and Beijing has established secret police stations there. More importantly, Chinese Minister of National Defense Li Shangfu (李尚福) refused to meet with US officials at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore earlier this month.
Beijing has clearly been supporting Russia’s unjustifiable invasion of Ukraine, while also maliciously infringing on Taiwan’s territory and sovereignty. Blinken’s visit is far from “a friendly gesture,” as some pro-China media have reported.
The US government is also not seeking something from China. It is clear that Washington wants to avoid misunderstanding, to prevent a war.
Nevertheless, the US, to a certain extent, still relies on Chinese exports. China undeniably continues to be the world’s factory, enabling it to maintain its advantage and status in the near future.
However, its totalitarian system of governance has repeatedly challenged the rules-based world order. Beijing has been isolating itself from the international community, while making it harder for the world to achieve full globalization. Because of the Chinese Communist Party, the world has entered an era similar to the Cold War, a situation in which values and ideologies are clear-cut and divisive. If the Chinese government continues to behave like this and ignores the world order, China’s status would soon suffer.
On the other hand, the US market is significant for China, and remains one of the country’s most important food suppliers. In addition, several local governments in China are in financial crisis, while the country’s unemployment rate rises, capital outflows persist and foreign corporations continue to withdraw from the market.
In terms of developing semiconductors and artificial intelligence, China has to rely on foreign countries’ technology, talent and equipment. Moreover, China’s demographic dividend has gradually disappeared due to its one-child policy and social preference for male children.
All of these factors would contribute to China’s decline.
During diplomatic talks between China and the US, it is clear who has gained the upper hand. China is still one of the most important countries in the world. To deal with global problems such as the climate crisis, environmental conservation and nuclear safety, the world needs China’s participation and collaboration. Blinken’s visit might not yield considerable results, but Washington keeps talking with China to avoid military conflict and another world war. The US has lived up to its people’s expectations.
Hong Tsun-ming, who is originally from Hong Kong, is a specialist in the Taiwan Statebuilding Party’s international section.
Translated by Emma Liu
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