The Kakhovka Dam in southern Ukraine was breached after an apparent explosion on Tuesday last week, releasing a huge amount of water from the country’s largest reservoir, flooding towns and villages and displacing about 42,000 people. In addition, more than 150 tonnes of engine oil spilled into the Dnieper River, causing an ecological disaster. To make matters worse, the incident sent previously buried landmines floating downstream, creating widespread hazards.
At a UN Security Council meeting convened shortly after the explosion, Russia and Ukraine accused one another of being responsible. Both sides clearly know that destroying civilian infrastructure is an unforgivable crime, even in wartime.
Moscow and Kyiv both had motives to blow up the dam and unleash water from the reservoir. Russia could use the floodwater to compel Ukrainian forces to focus on disaster relief, thus interrupting their military operations.
That would be reminiscent of how in 1938, during China’s war of resistance against Japan, then-Chinese president Chiang Kai-shek (蔣介石) ordered levees at Huayuankou on the Yellow River to be breached to stop the Japanese from advancing westward, drowning an estimated 90,000 people in the process.
On the other hand, if the Ukrainian military blew up the dam, it would not only affect the supply of water to Russian-annexed Crimea, but also limit the available water for cooling the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which lies upstream on the bank of the reservoir, thus reducing its capacity to generate electricity.
Nevertheless, it is not the armies confronting each other, but the people who live downstream from the dam who are suffering the most.
Some people in Taiwan and the US have long said that if China invaded Taiwan, the military should attack China’s Three Gorges Dam. Not being a military expert, I do not know whether Taiwan has the capacity to destroy the dam. Even if China’s anti-missile systems failed to deter a Taiwanese attack, one or two non-nuclear missiles striking the Three Gorges Dam would cause no more than surface damage.
If China were to counterattack, targeting just two of Taiwan’s dams — the Feitsui Dam (翡翠壩) and the Deji Dam (德基壩), which are thin arch dams, it would cause major flooding in northern and central Taiwan followed by a catastrophic water shortage.
The Three Gorges Dam is a concrete gravity dam that measures 115m wide at the base and 40m wide at the crest. Its structure and thickness should enable it to withstand the impact of several missiles. In comparison, the Deji Dam measures 20m wide at the base and just 4.5m wide at the crest, while the Feitsui Dam is 25m wide at the base and 7m wide at the crest. As such, they might not be able to withstand the impact of several missiles. Furthermore, Taipei lies 30km downstream of the Feitsui Dam.
Big dams have monitoring equipment embedded within them to detect and give advance warning about any abnormal leakage or displacement. When something goes wrong, the dam’s management office can adjust the flood discharge and, if necessary, notify people living downstream to evacuate the area.
If a missile were to suddenly breach the dam, there would be no time for early warning or evacuation.
During World War II, British forces breached Germany’s Mohne and Edersee dams on tributaries of the Rhine in a bombing operation, which also damaged the Sorpe Dam. As a result, the Geneva Convention and subsequent protocols classified attacks on installations such as dams and nuclear power stations as war crimes. Consequently, few such attacks have since occurred.
Last week’s bombing of the Kakhovka Dam should not have happened. It remains unclear who was responsible, but whether it was Russia or Ukraine, the bombing should be severely condemned. Furthermore, the idea of attacking the Three Gorges Dam should be discarded forthwith.
Chang Yen-ming is a former Water Resources Agency section chief and author of a book about Taiwan’s reservoirs.
Translated by Julian Clegg
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