China and Russia on Tuesday conducted joint aerial strategic patrols over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea. It was their sixth joint air patrol since 2019, and their increasing frequency reflects the growing level of collaboration between the two nations.
Beijing and Moscow have been expanding their defense cooperation mainly through joint military exercises, alongside visits of high-level defense officials, arms trade and cooperation on military technology. Amid rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait, these exercises carry significant implications for Taiwan. This raises the important question of what political-strategic objectives Beijing aims to accomplish through these drills with Moscow.
China uses the military exercises as a means of reassuring Russia of its friendship. As historian and political scientist Beatrice Heuser said, military exercises can serve political and strategic purposes, such as reassuring friendship with allies or partners, and deterring adversaries.
China has participated in a number of Russia’s annual military exercises, including Vostok-2018, Tsentr-2019, Kavkaz-2020, Zapad-2021 and Vostok-2022.
Additionally, the two nations have been co-organizing joint naval drills since 2012, and had conducted joint counterterrorism exercises known as “cooperation” in 2007, 2013, 2016, 2017 and 2019. Over the years, there has been a significant increase in the frequency and scale of these joint exercises.
China hosted the Zapad-2021 in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, marking the first time that it hosted Russia’s annual military exercise on its territory. To emphasize the importance of this joint exercise, the Chinese state-run Global Times said it was “to consolidate the comprehensive strategic partnership in a new era between China and Russia, and deepen the pragmatic cooperation and traditional friendship between the two militaries.”
Moscow recently pledged its support for China on the “Taiwan issue” in a joint statement released after a meeting in March between Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The statement affirmed Moscow’s recognition of Taiwan as an inseparable part of the People’s Republic of China, its opposition to any form of Taiwanese independence, and its firm backing of China’s actions to safeguard its state sovereignty and territorial integrity.
With tensions continuing to rise in the Taiwan Strait, Beijing will likely seek to tighten its military ties with Moscow. Joint military exercises could provide an important mechanism to facilitate military collaboration and deepen pragmatic cooperation between the two militaries, especially as the two nations do not have an official military alliance.
Beijing employs joint military drills with Russia as a tool to send a political message to the US and its major allies in the region close to China’s borders. By showcasing its close ties and military cooperation with Russia, China aims to discourage any actions that could undermine its interests or pose a threat to its territorial integrity, particularly concerning Taiwan.
From China’s perspective, the joint drills function as a means of deterrence. Assuming that China intends to invade Taiwan in the near future, a crucial step would be to dissuade key US allies, such as Japan and South Korea, from becoming involved in the conflict by signaling that a confrontation with Beijing would carry significant costs.
An effective way to achieve this could be through joint military drills, and air and naval patrols with Russia, supposedly to demonstrate Russian support.
Last year, the Chinese and Russian militaries held two joint air patrols over the Sea of Japan, the East China Sea and the West Pacific. In May last year, the two nations sent strategic bombers near Japan when the leaders of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, met in Tokyo.
This was followed in November last year by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army sending H-6K strategic bombers and the Russian Aerospace Forces sending Tu-95MS strategic missile carriers, escorted by Moscow’s Su-30 SM and Su-35S jets, close to Japan and South Korea. Chinese and Russian bombers crossed South Korea’s air defense identification zone, intimidating one of the US’ most important allies in the region.
In China’s military strategy, military drills are considered a crucial means of implementing strategic deterrence. The Science of Military Strategy, one of China’s key publications on military strategy and doctrines, emphasizes the role of military exercises in creating confusion and uncertainty.
It asserts that these exercises serve to showcase the military’s combat capabilities to potential adversaries, instilling doubt regarding China’s intentions and inducing psychological panic to achieve a deterrent effect. This approach is akin to an “empty city” tactic, which suggests that even if Russia is not backing China, the perception can be created that it is.
Although Russia and China are drawing closer, it is highly unlikely that Russia would directly engage in any conflict related to Taiwan. However, through joint military exercises, Beijing can sow confusion among the US’ allies in the region, conveying the message that Russia and China stand united in the face of regional challenges.
Overall, although Moscow and Beijing do not have an official military alliance, China uses the exercises to reassure its most important strategic partner, Russia, while at the same time intimidating its regional opponents in times of rising tension in the Taiwan Strait.
Narantsatsral Enkhbat is a visiting academic in Taiwan. Her research focus is China’s conflict behavior and she writes on the political-strategic dimensions of China’s military exercises.
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