Taiwan has never had a president who is not from the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) or the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Could next year’s presidential election put a third-party candidate in office? The contenders who have thrown their hats into the ring are Vice President William Lai (賴清德) of the DPP, New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜) of the KMT and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) Chairman Ko Wen-je (柯文哲).
A monthly poll released by my-formosa.com on Monday showed support for Hou nosediving from 26 percent to 18.3 percent, the lowest among the three presidential hopefuls. It was a surprising turn, as Hou had just won re-election as mayor by a wide margin in November last year. Having bet on Hou’s popularity and “ethnic Taiwanese” image, the KMT hardly expected its handpicked candidate to fall into third place, let alone behind a small party like the TPP.
The freefall has revealed a few chinks in Hou’s armor. The mayor has been criticized as lacking preparation and the temperament to be a president. Recent events further showed his shortcomings — the biggest being his inaction to court his rival for the KMT nomination — Hon Hai Precision Industry Co founder Terry Gou (郭台銘). Gou and his group of supporters, composed of KMT local factions and “deep-blue” supporters, are still smarting from what they perceive as the KMT’s duplicity in giving Gou false hope that he would be the nominee.
After staying out of the limelight for a week following Hou’s nomination, Gou appeared on Tuesday at a religious festival in Kinmen County. Gou handed Lai a folder with a proposal for a “Kinmen peace declaration.” He also teamed up with Ko in a show of unity as they participated in a sedan chair procession. Later that day, Gou and Ko were photographed seated side-by-side looking at the night sky. The rendezvous has intensified speculation that the pair might join forces for Ko’s presidential bid.
As there are no permanent enemies or friends, only permanent interests in politics, a collaboration between the two is not impossible. Ko, who has marketed himself as a “third choice” for voters sick of the DPP and KMT struggle, once said that his ideal running mate should have a business background. Gou looks like an ideal fit and the two could help each other achieve what they want.
Ko would have the financial support he needs given Gou’s deep pockets as well as support from the tycoon’s avid fans. This could give him a leg up and catapult him to second place in more polls. As Ko’s foreign policies are more in line with the KMT’s, it could unite DPP opponents to strategically vote for him instead of Hou.
Gou, by flirting with a third party, could cause panic and unease in the KMT for rejecting him. He has also worked to boost his bargaining power with a strategy that allows him to plausibly deny supporting Ko, while gaining leverage with the KMT. With his actions in Kinmen, he has presented himself as a candidate who is able to reach across the aisle to the TPP, as well as a challenger who is not afraid to question the ideology of Lai, his main opponent.
Gou’s increasing popularity and publicity stand in sharp contrast to Hou’s absence and passivity. His growing presence would put pressure on Hou and the KMT itself, which might compel Hou to bow out of the race or spur party members to demand that he be replaced by KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) or Gou.
It remains to be seen if Gou would really turn his back on the KMT and collaborate with Ko. After all, both Ko and Gou are strong personalities who are not keen on playing second fiddle. As the KMT is unlikely to repeat its disastrous 2016 presidential playbook when it replaced former KMT chairwoman Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱) with Chu as the candidate, it might find it has another opponent to deal with if Hou continues to lose popularity. Perhaps Taiwan could really see a third-party candidate in office next year.
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