Wed, May 17, 2023 page8

• Ukraine shows that China not invincible

  • By Linus Chiou 邱士哲
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  During the night of May 4, the Ukrainian Air Force, using a newly supplied Patriot missile system, intercepted a Russian Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missile — an air-launched ballistic missile capable of reaching hypersonic speeds — over a region outside Kyiv. This was a huge milestone for Ukraine and a testament to the significant improvements made to its air defense network since the onset of the war. Previously, Ukrainian officials had said that they were unable to defend against Russian high-speed missiles without Western-supplied advanced air defense systems.

  With a Ukrainian counteroffensive looming, Russia has once again intensified its bombardment of the nation. On May 1, Ukraine said that its air defenses had intercepted 15 of 18 cruise missiles launched from Russian strategic bombers.

  The types of weapon systems used in a war matter, and the war in Ukraine has demonstrated the importance of advanced, albeit expensive, air defense systems in a prolonged conventional conflict. They offer interception capabilities that relatively cheap, mass-produced portable air defense systems cannot effectively provide.

  These systems have greatly reduced the potency of Russian bombardments, especially as Ukraine needs to protect critical infrastructure and logistics ahead of its counteroffensive.

  Ukraine’s recent successes in missile interception should also be attributed to NATO early warnings and intelligence sharing with Kyiv. NATO satellites and drones constantly surveil Russian bomber movements, greatly helping Ukraine anticipate the timing and direction of missile attacks. Without the element of surprise, Russia would have to increasingly rely on costlier hypersonic missiles to penetrate Ukraine’s air defenses.

  Taiwan also plans to improve its air defense network with the Patriot missile system. Last year, the US proposed upgrading Taiwan’s existing Patriot systems with as many as 100 of Lockheed Martin’s hit-to-kill Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement missiles.

  Given the high cost of the missiles, some critics have said that they do not align with Taiwan’s asymmetrical defense strategy. This sentiment was shared by several military analysts during the early months of the war in Ukraine. They said that Ukraine should not be provided with advanced conventional weapons as Kyiv did not stand a chance in a conventional war.

  With the benefit of hindsight, their arguments have been largely discredited. Ukrainian defenders have proven their ability to quickly learn and operate advanced weapon systems, such as the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, to exact devastating blows on Russia’s ability to mount large offensives.

  University of St Andrews strategic studies professor Phillips O’Brien said that “what this war has shown is that a democratic, committed nation such as Ukraine can achieve things far more quickly and efficiently than a dictatorship.”

  Similarly, Taiwan must also obtain such capabilities even when they come with a high price tag. Advanced conventional weapon systems will continue to play an important role in warfare, as well as a deterrent.

  Publicizing the success of Ukraine’s air defense diminishes the propaganda value of “unstoppable” Chinese missile attacks on Taiwan. As debates surrounding national defense once again renew due to next year’s presidential election, voters should keep in mind the lessons from the Ukrainian war and not fall for those promoting the invincibility of the Chinese armed forces to intimidate Taiwan into submission.

  Linus Chiou studies physics and history at the University of Virginia.
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