Liz Truss — the arch-Thatcherite former British prime minister who was unceremoniously booted out by her own Conservative Party after six weeks in office last year — wants to show “solidarity” with Taiwanese in the face of “Chinese aggression.” Truss’ talk is organized by a Taiwanese think tank, the Prospect Foundation, and is titled “Taiwan: On The Frontline of Freedom and Democracy.”
The blurb presents Truss as promoting Taiwan’s security, cross-strait peace, stability and dispute resolution. She is opposed to any unilateral attempts to change the “status quo.” At the same time, her “concrete support for Taiwan’s democracy” will “bolster the confidence of the Taiwanese people in defending democracy and freedom.”
LESS CAUTIOUS
The trip reflects a less cautious approach among some Western politicians hoping to raise their profile by using Taiwan as a stick to beat China with. Such visits diverge from the more understated diplomacy of Western governments and risk pushing the boundaries of official policy on Taiwan.
Taipei’s facilitating of such visits raises interesting observations around its strategy for international support in the context of increased Chinese pressure and a hemorrhage in formal diplomatic recognition under the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
Although very different in nature, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and important sections of the Conservative Party are remarkably aligned in their assessment of Truss’ trip.
‘PERFORMATIVE’
The Conservative chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, Alicia Kearns, called Truss’ visit a profile-maintaining vanity project — “performative, not substantive” and “the worst example of Instagram diplomacy” that is “deeply unhelpful because it escalates the normal situation in Taiwan.”
“Taiwanese people already live with more Chinese military maneuvers because of [former US House of Representatives speaker] Nancy Pelosi’s visit. Liz Truss doesn’t have any influence anymore — this is more about keeping herself relevant,” Kearns said.
In an interview with the BBC, CCP spokesman Gao Zhikai (高志凱) scorned the idea that Truss’ visit could provoke a show of Chinese strength like the one after Pelosi’s visit.
“I think she is not impactful or consequential at all by any stretch of the imagination,” Gao said.
The UK Foreign Office’s response to Truss’ proposed visit is reassuringly diplomatic: “We wouldn’t get involved in the independent travel decisions of a private citizen who is not a member of the government.”
Kearns’ “normal situation in Taiwan” — the “status quo” of de facto, but not de jure independence — appears to be what the UK government would prefer. Recent years have seen a marked shift in UK-China relations, with Taiwan coming more into focus in a flurry of policy documents.
In July 2021, a strategic review labeled China a “systemic rival.”
This was followed in September 2021 by a report that saw conflict over Taiwan as the most “dangerous risk that faces the UK in terms of its relationship with China.” Managing this risk through “maximum use of its diplomatic and soft power” had to become the UK’s “strategic priority.”
In October last year, the short-lived Truss administration hawkishly renamed Beijing a “systemic threat.”
However, last month, British Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs James Cleverly said the UK should not pull the shutters down on China.
For the UK, Taiwan’s political status should be resolved “through dialogue, in line with the views of the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.”
Truss’ visit has almost certainly been sanctioned at the highest levels in Taipei. The Prospect Foundation is headed by dangwai (黨外, “outside the party”) veteran and DPP big beast, former minister of foreign affairs Mark Chen (陳唐山). Chen also served as Presidential Office secretary-general and secretary-general of the National Security Council.
The Prospect Foundation says Truss has long been a friend of Taiwan.
For sure, she has made Taiwan-friendly noises in recent years and taken a tough stance on China.
Yet her name does not appear in the list of members of the British-Taiwanese All-Party Parliamentary Group, the cross-party organization that has for many years conducted low-key informal contact with the nation.
PRUDENCE
On one level, politics are not policy. Politics are the nitty-gritty of power struggles. Policy is a state’s official stance on an issue. On this level, politics are not diplomacy. Diplomacy entails prudence.
Politicians can say what they like, but what they say does not necessarily constitute policy or diplomacy. On another level, though, politicking frames the public debate and informs policy and diplomacy. It is on this second level that the Truss visit might be seen.
China seeks to gain control of Taiwan in the long run and is ultimately prepared to use force if Taiwan crosses a red line by declaring de jure independence.
CHINA IS TRUMPED
However, policymakers and diplomats in Taiwan, China and the West have over the years crafted a “status quo” that ensures that this does not happen. So, in this sense, China is trumped.
In the short term, then, while China is not overly concerned about the Truss visit, it knows that cumulatively such visits may increase Taiwan’s international space through a knock-on effect on policy and diplomacy.
That is why it seeks to prevent them, because strategically the best outcome for Beijing is to weaken Taiwan’s international support so that Taiwan will sue for peace through a form of unification.
The UK’s Taiwan policy, like that of other powers, seeks to manage this situation as far as possible, given the constraints.
Martin Boyle has a doctorate in international relations from the University of Kent, England.
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