Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) had been on a winning streak of late, successfully rebuffing US attempts to portray China as a threat to the global order. Then an envoy in France instantly revived all those fears.
China has moved swiftly to extinguish a firestorm in Europe caused by Chinese Ambassador to France Lu Shaye (盧沙野), who questioned the independence of ex-Soviet states during an interview with a local broadcaster.
In a statement on Monday night, the Chinese embassy in Paris said that Lu gave an “an expression of personal points of view” that should not be “over-interpreted.”
It explicitly reaffirmed respect for the sovereignty of ex-Soviet states, adding that its position is “consistent and clear.”
Still, the damage was done. The remarks effectively echoed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s view of Ukraine and other countries that once formed the Soviet Union, undermining Xi’s efforts to portray China as a neutral party to help end the war that began in February last year.
Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs Gabrielius Landsbergis cited Lu’s comments in a Twitter post to explain “why the Baltic states don’t trust China to ‘broker peace in Ukraine.’”
Estonia and Latvia — nations that also suffered for decades under the harsh rule of the Soviet Union — summoned Chinese diplomats in their capitals to explain.
“Lu’s remarks and the strong reactions they sparked across Europe are a bit of an own-goal,” said Chong Ja Ian (莊嘉穎), an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.
“The incident is revealing of the tensions in” Chinese foreign policy, Chong said. “They want to present an image of being both open and forceful.”
INVESTOR CONCERN
The incident has added to recent investor concern over geopolitical risks given that Chinese stock traders have already been worried about China-US ties.
The market is facing “a raft of negative geopolitical noises,” including Lu’s comments and US President Joe Biden’s apparent plans for an executive order restricting US investments in some areas of China’s economy, said Vey-Sern Ling (凌煒森), managing director at Union Bancaire Privee.
For Xi, Lu’s errant remarks appeared to mark yet another setback as he looks to revamp China’s image on the global stage after three years of isolation due to the outbreak of COVID-19.
Last month, shortly after Xi unveiled a vague blueprint for peace in Ukraine and met with Putin in Moscow, his government brokered a deal for Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore diplomatic ties. That lent credibility to Beijing’s role as a potential mediator in conflicts far beyond its shores.
Then Xi hosted the leaders of France and Brazil, both of whom made comments that upset the US. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called for closer economic ties with China and a diminished role of the US dollar in trade, while French President Emmanuel Macron said that Europe must forge its own path independent of the US.
Following Lu’s comments, Macron reiterated his solidarity with the countries in question, and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell called the comments “unacceptable.”
The episode in part shows China’s struggle to balance more assertive diplomacy with the need to project soft power, particularly as the nation’s reputation has fallen. A Pew Research Center poll last year found four-fifths of respondents in the US, Japan, South Korea, Australia and Sweden had unfavorable opinions of China.
While China has appeared to recognize the problem, and sought to play nicer of late, outbursts from diplomats still occur fairly regularly. Lu has created controversy in the past, accusing Canada of “white supremacy” during the saga over the detention of a Huawei Technologies Co executive.
SOUTH UNFAZED
At the same time, the episode is unlikely to hurt China more broadly among the so-called Global South, a broad term referring to developing nations across parts of Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America.
Last year, China started a conversation about BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) expansion when it was chair of the bloc, part of a wider effort to present an alternative to US leadership. Since then, 19 countries expressed an interest in joining just before the bloc holds an annual summit in South Africa in June, said Anil Sooklal, South Africa’s ambassador to BRICS.
The incident might also blow over quickly in some smaller nations in Europe, said Neil Thomas, a fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis.
“Many European leaders are likely to accept Beijing’s walkback of Ambassador Lu’s comments and continue to pursue their economic and diplomatic interests with China, especially those of smaller and poorer EU nations that especially value commercial exchanges with the country,” he said.
Apart from the embassy statement distancing China from Lu’s comments, the reaction in Beijing has also been to take shots at the press.
In a regular briefing on Monday, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman Mao Ning (毛寧) blamed the media for trying to “sow discord between China and the countries concerned.”
Lu’s remark also played well among social media users, some of whom linked the issue to Taiwan. China has recently made the argument that invading Taiwan would not violate international law, because the nation is not recognized as a country.
“If you have enough power, you can write international law,” one Chinese social media user wrote on a post about Lu’s comments. “Haven’t Western politicians been spewing enough nonsense about Taiwan?”
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