Former Examination Yuan president John Kuan (關中) has published a book saying that the US has entered a state of decline, and advising Taiwan not to rely entirely on Washington. He also says China is certain to become more powerful and Taiwan should not go against such an irreversible trend.
Hon Hai Precision Industry Co founder Terry Gou (郭台銘) has also suggested that Taiwan should avoid taking sides in the competition between the US and China.
However, Kuan and Gou have failed to respond to the most significant question: If the rise of China is irreversible, why would China let Taiwan survive? If Taiwan refuses to take sides, what would happen if China invades Taiwan? Without taking sides, why should the US assist Taiwan? If they put themselves in Taiwan’s shoes, they would agree that the nation must be prepared for a war, while consolidating its relationships with its allies.
Kuan is an established academic in the field of international relations. His book investigates the wars waged by the US and offers a theory based on solid methods. Regrettably, his historical view falsely affects his conclusion. Two of the most significant wars for the US are the Korean War and the Vietnam War. Kuan believes that the Korean War caused a division between Taiwan and China, but the truth is that without that conflict, then-US secretary of state Dean Acheson would have simply waited “for the dust to settle” in the Chinese Civil War.
However, when North Korea invaded the South, Acheson advised then-US president Harry Truman to send the Seventh Fleet into the Taiwan Strait to neutralize the area to prevent a Chinese invasion. This move was crucial for the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) to settle itself in Taiwan.
The Vietnam War greatly harmed the US, but Washington has learned its lesson. In principle, the US would no longer send ground forces to intervene in other countries’ civil wars, especially to countries unwilling to fight against their enemies.
Kuan says that it does not make sense for the US to curb the rise of China.
However, according to distinguished figures in the field of international relations, such as John Mearsheimer and Graham Allison, it is only natural for a hegemonic country to be upset by the rise of another powerful country that might threaten its own status. This is precisely what “Thucydides’ Trap” means: namely, the rise of a strong nation leads to wars. If a country tries to change the balance of power, conflict occurs. Japan and Germany disrupted the regional orders in Asia and Europe respectively during World War II, and their actions backfired.
The US is far from perfect.
However, soon after its establishment as a country in 1776, it placed itself in the geopolitical center of the world. The key to the US’ success is its willingness to reflect on its past, including its role in the Vietnam War.
Therefore, if a Chinese invasion occurs, with some Taiwanese advocating “reunification,” peace talks or even surrender, the US would have to stand by and watch based on its reflection on the Vietnam War.
However, if Taiwan insists that democracy should not be destroyed by an authoritarian power, Washington could offer some assistance, even though it might not send its forces to Taiwan.
What Taiwan needs is to be more aware of its own security. The nation needs to view its enemies correctly. When it is clear that there is a lack of safety in the Taiwan Strait, any talk of peace is only empty words that would eventually lead to Taiwan’s destruction.
Michael Lin holds a master’s degree from National Taiwan University’s Graduate Institute of National Development.
Translated by Emma Liu
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