Former Examination Yuan president John Kuan (關中) has published a book saying that the US has entered a state of decline, and advising Taiwan not to rely entirely on Washington. He also says China is certain to become more powerful and Taiwan should not go against such an irreversible trend.
Hon Hai Precision Industry Co founder Terry Gou (郭台銘) has also suggested that Taiwan should avoid taking sides in the competition between the US and China.
However, Kuan and Gou have failed to respond to the most significant question: If the rise of China is irreversible, why would China let Taiwan survive? If Taiwan refuses to take sides, what would happen if China invades Taiwan? Without taking sides, why should the US assist Taiwan? If they put themselves in Taiwan’s shoes, they would agree that the nation must be prepared for a war, while consolidating its relationships with its allies.
Kuan is an established academic in the field of international relations. His book investigates the wars waged by the US and offers a theory based on solid methods. Regrettably, his historical view falsely affects his conclusion. Two of the most significant wars for the US are the Korean War and the Vietnam War. Kuan believes that the Korean War caused a division between Taiwan and China, but the truth is that without that conflict, then-US secretary of state Dean Acheson would have simply waited “for the dust to settle” in the Chinese Civil War.
However, when North Korea invaded the South, Acheson advised then-US president Harry Truman to send the Seventh Fleet into the Taiwan Strait to neutralize the area to prevent a Chinese invasion. This move was crucial for the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) to settle itself in Taiwan.
The Vietnam War greatly harmed the US, but Washington has learned its lesson. In principle, the US would no longer send ground forces to intervene in other countries’ civil wars, especially to countries unwilling to fight against their enemies.
Kuan says that it does not make sense for the US to curb the rise of China.
However, according to distinguished figures in the field of international relations, such as John Mearsheimer and Graham Allison, it is only natural for a hegemonic country to be upset by the rise of another powerful country that might threaten its own status. This is precisely what “Thucydides’ Trap” means: namely, the rise of a strong nation leads to wars. If a country tries to change the balance of power, conflict occurs. Japan and Germany disrupted the regional orders in Asia and Europe respectively during World War II, and their actions backfired.
The US is far from perfect.
However, soon after its establishment as a country in 1776, it placed itself in the geopolitical center of the world. The key to the US’ success is its willingness to reflect on its past, including its role in the Vietnam War.
Therefore, if a Chinese invasion occurs, with some Taiwanese advocating “reunification,” peace talks or even surrender, the US would have to stand by and watch based on its reflection on the Vietnam War.
However, if Taiwan insists that democracy should not be destroyed by an authoritarian power, Washington could offer some assistance, even though it might not send its forces to Taiwan.
What Taiwan needs is to be more aware of its own security. The nation needs to view its enemies correctly. When it is clear that there is a lack of safety in the Taiwan Strait, any talk of peace is only empty words that would eventually lead to Taiwan’s destruction.
Michael Lin holds a master’s degree from National Taiwan University’s Graduate Institute of National Development.
Translated by Emma Liu
The gutting of Voice of America (VOA) and Radio Free Asia (RFA) by US President Donald Trump’s administration poses a serious threat to the global voice of freedom, particularly for those living under authoritarian regimes such as China. The US — hailed as the model of liberal democracy — has the moral responsibility to uphold the values it champions. In undermining these institutions, the US risks diminishing its “soft power,” a pivotal pillar of its global influence. VOA Tibetan and RFA Tibetan played an enormous role in promoting the strong image of the US in and outside Tibet. On VOA Tibetan,
Sung Chien-liang (宋建樑), the leader of the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) efforts to recall Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator Lee Kun-cheng (李坤城), caused a national outrage and drew diplomatic condemnation on Tuesday after he arrived at the New Taipei City District Prosecutors’ Office dressed in a Nazi uniform. Sung performed a Nazi salute and carried a copy of Adolf Hitler’s Mein Kampf as he arrived to be questioned over allegations of signature forgery in the recall petition. The KMT’s response to the incident has shown a striking lack of contrition and decency. Rather than apologizing and distancing itself from Sung’s actions,
US President Trump weighed into the state of America’s semiconductor manufacturing when he declared, “They [Taiwan] stole it from us. They took it from us, and I don’t blame them. I give them credit.” At a prior White House event President Trump hosted TSMC chairman C.C. Wei (魏哲家), head of the world’s largest and most advanced chip manufacturer, to announce a commitment to invest US$100 billion in America. The president then shifted his previously critical rhetoric on Taiwan and put off tariffs on its chips. Now we learn that the Trump Administration is conducting a “trade investigation” on semiconductors which
By now, most of Taiwan has heard Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an’s (蔣萬安) threats to initiate a vote of no confidence against the Cabinet. His rationale is that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)-led government’s investigation into alleged signature forgery in the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) recall campaign constitutes “political persecution.” I sincerely hope he goes through with it. The opposition currently holds a majority in the Legislative Yuan, so the initiation of a no-confidence motion and its passage should be entirely within reach. If Chiang truly believes that the government is overreaching, abusing its power and targeting political opponents — then
RSS