Former Examination Yuan president John Kuan (關中) has published a book saying that the US has entered a state of decline, and advising Taiwan not to rely entirely on Washington. He also says China is certain to become more powerful and Taiwan should not go against such an irreversible trend.
Hon Hai Precision Industry Co founder Terry Gou (郭台銘) has also suggested that Taiwan should avoid taking sides in the competition between the US and China.
However, Kuan and Gou have failed to respond to the most significant question: If the rise of China is irreversible, why would China let Taiwan survive? If Taiwan refuses to take sides, what would happen if China invades Taiwan? Without taking sides, why should the US assist Taiwan? If they put themselves in Taiwan’s shoes, they would agree that the nation must be prepared for a war, while consolidating its relationships with its allies.
Kuan is an established academic in the field of international relations. His book investigates the wars waged by the US and offers a theory based on solid methods. Regrettably, his historical view falsely affects his conclusion. Two of the most significant wars for the US are the Korean War and the Vietnam War. Kuan believes that the Korean War caused a division between Taiwan and China, but the truth is that without that conflict, then-US secretary of state Dean Acheson would have simply waited “for the dust to settle” in the Chinese Civil War.
However, when North Korea invaded the South, Acheson advised then-US president Harry Truman to send the Seventh Fleet into the Taiwan Strait to neutralize the area to prevent a Chinese invasion. This move was crucial for the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) to settle itself in Taiwan.
The Vietnam War greatly harmed the US, but Washington has learned its lesson. In principle, the US would no longer send ground forces to intervene in other countries’ civil wars, especially to countries unwilling to fight against their enemies.
Kuan says that it does not make sense for the US to curb the rise of China.
However, according to distinguished figures in the field of international relations, such as John Mearsheimer and Graham Allison, it is only natural for a hegemonic country to be upset by the rise of another powerful country that might threaten its own status. This is precisely what “Thucydides’ Trap” means: namely, the rise of a strong nation leads to wars. If a country tries to change the balance of power, conflict occurs. Japan and Germany disrupted the regional orders in Asia and Europe respectively during World War II, and their actions backfired.
The US is far from perfect.
However, soon after its establishment as a country in 1776, it placed itself in the geopolitical center of the world. The key to the US’ success is its willingness to reflect on its past, including its role in the Vietnam War.
Therefore, if a Chinese invasion occurs, with some Taiwanese advocating “reunification,” peace talks or even surrender, the US would have to stand by and watch based on its reflection on the Vietnam War.
However, if Taiwan insists that democracy should not be destroyed by an authoritarian power, Washington could offer some assistance, even though it might not send its forces to Taiwan.
What Taiwan needs is to be more aware of its own security. The nation needs to view its enemies correctly. When it is clear that there is a lack of safety in the Taiwan Strait, any talk of peace is only empty words that would eventually lead to Taiwan’s destruction.
Michael Lin holds a master’s degree from National Taiwan University’s Graduate Institute of National Development.
Translated by Emma Liu
Why is Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) not a “happy camper” these days regarding Taiwan? Taiwanese have not become more “CCP friendly” in response to the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) use of spies and graft by the United Front Work Department, intimidation conducted by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the Armed Police/Coast Guard, and endless subversive political warfare measures, including cyber-attacks, economic coercion, and diplomatic isolation. The percentage of Taiwanese that prefer the status quo or prefer moving towards independence continues to rise — 76 percent as of December last year. According to National Chengchi University (NCCU) polling, the Taiwanese
It would be absurd to claim to see a silver lining behind every US President Donald Trump cloud. Those clouds are too many, too dark and too dangerous. All the same, viewed from a domestic political perspective, there is a clear emerging UK upside to Trump’s efforts at crashing the post-Cold War order. It might even get a boost from Thursday’s Washington visit by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. In July last year, when Starmer became prime minister, the Labour Party was rigidly on the defensive about Europe. Brexit was seen as an electorally unstable issue for a party whose priority
US President Donald Trump is systematically dismantling the network of multilateral institutions, organizations and agreements that have helped prevent a third world war for more than 70 years. Yet many governments are twisting themselves into knots trying to downplay his actions, insisting that things are not as they seem and that even if they are, confronting the menace in the White House simply is not an option. Disagreement must be carefully disguised to avoid provoking his wrath. For the British political establishment, the convenient excuse is the need to preserve the UK’s “special relationship” with the US. Following their White House
US President Donald Trump’s return to the White House has brought renewed scrutiny to the Taiwan-US semiconductor relationship with his claim that Taiwan “stole” the US chip business and threats of 100 percent tariffs on foreign-made processors. For Taiwanese and industry leaders, understanding those developments in their full context is crucial while maintaining a clear vision of Taiwan’s role in the global technology ecosystem. The assertion that Taiwan “stole” the US’ semiconductor industry fundamentally misunderstands the evolution of global technology manufacturing. Over the past four decades, Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, led by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), has grown through legitimate means
RSS