Events are moving so quickly in the internecine war within the Sudanese military, even the protagonists seem confused. On Tuesday, one side claimed that a 24-hour ceasefire had been agreed upon after conversations with US Secretary of State Tony Blinken and other “friendly nations,” but the other said it had not been consulted.
Reports from Khartoum suggested the fighting, which began on Saturday last week, was growing more intense. By the time you read this, the death toll is likely to have exceeded 200, and the tally of the injured passed 2,000.
It has certainly become more reckless. Blinken said a US diplomatic convoy was fired upon. The EU said its ambassador had been assaulted in his home. The UN said buildings occupied by diplomats and the staff of international humanitarian agencies had been targeted. Three UN World Food Program workers were killed over the past weekend in the western Darfur region.
At this stage, there is no telling which side is responsible for more killings, or for greater disregard of the traditional red lines in any conflict. The only certainty in this face-off between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is that neither side can legitimately claim to be fighting for a good cause, nor credibly invoke good faith.
The RSF is run by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo — better known as Hemedti — a former warlord who made his name as a leader of the notorious Janjaweed militia responsible for the genocide in Darfur 20 years ago. Then, he was on the same side as Sudanese Lieutenant-General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the regional commander in Darfur, and now head of the army.
The two men are blamed for the Khartoum massacre of June 3, 2019, when the army and RSF fired upon unarmed pro-democracy protesters, killing more than 100. They both undermined hopes for Sudan’s transition to democracy after a people-power movement ended the 30-year military dictatorship of Omar al-Bashir earlier that year.
Since becoming the country’s de facto leader, al-Burhan has fallen out with Hemedti over the integration of the RSF — made up largely of Janjaweed veterans — into the regular armed forces. Both men aspire to al-Bashir’s mantle.
Neither can be trusted to make peace among themselves — or to honor any truce mediated by outsiders. As the international community scrambles to organize a ceasefire, it should be wary of any proposals for power-sharing between them. The goal should be to restore a civilian government, with no role for the military or the militia.
To achieve this, the UN, the EU and the US must work with Arab nations that have influence over the warring sides. Egypt could be the key player: The administration of Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi has maintained connections to al-Burhan and Hemedti, and Cairo has the most to gain from stability in Khartoum.
Struggling to feed his people, the last thing al-Sisi needs is an implosion in Sudan that sends millions of refugees across the border into Egypt. The US and its allies should bring to bear the same mix of pressure and inducements that reportedly prompted him to change direction on the possible sale of rockets to Russia and supply artillery shells to Ukraine instead.
The potential benefits of a positive outcome are huge. Consider the strides Sudan made during its brief spell under a civilian-led government after al-Bashir’s ouster. Then-Sudanese prime minister Abdalla Hamdok, a former UN economist, abolished laws against apostasy, ended punishment by flogging, criminalized female genital mutilation, scrapped rules requiring women to get a permit from a male family member to travel with their children, and loosened prohibitions on the sale and consumption of alcohol.
Astonishingly, Hamdok pledged to separate religion from the state, effectively ending 30 years of Islamic rule. The last time a Muslim leader attempted such a transformation was 100 years ago, when Kemal Ataturk turned Turkey into a secular state.
Hamdok managed all that despite having to work with the military in a transitional government, a cumbersome arrangement that gave the men in fatigues too much authority. Al-Burhan had him removed, arrested, then reinstated. Eventually, Hamdok resigned in frustration.
Imagine how much more Hamdok, or someone like him, might achieve without interference or intimidation. Impoverished by decades of misrule by the military, Sudan needs al-Burhan and Hemedti to do more than just lay down their weapons. It needs them to fade away.
Bobby Ghosh is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering foreign affairs. He has been editor in chief at the Hindustan Times, managing editor at Quartz and international editor at Time.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners
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