A potential stockpile of munitions the US wants to establish in Taiwan has sparked controversy and concern within the ruling and opposition camps.
Earlier this month, Minister of National Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng (邱國正) confirmed speculation that the US is discussing the creation of such an arms reserve as a contingency for critical situations, not just in the Taiwan Strait, but around the western Pacific region.
Some opposition legislators have opposed the proposal, saying it could turn Taiwan into “East Asia’s ammunition room” and could speed the increase of tensions in the Taiwan Strait, compromising the nation’s safety and pushing Taiwan to the front line of war.
Such opposition is not only unconvincing, but also groundless and misleading.
The administration of US President Joe Biden is pushing to stockpile arms in Taiwan based on a professional security assessment.
Apart from the strategic function of hosting an arms supply in the event of a cross-strait war, such a move would deter the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) military aggression against Taiwan.
By extension, the maneuver would add some measure of security to the Indo-Pacific region.
Washington stores weapons and munitions on the territories of other Asian military allies on the advice of a security assessment — the US, Japan, South Korea and the Philippines — where US troops are stationed.
Although the US and Taiwan are not officially military allies, and US troops are not stationed in the country, the US Congress this year regardless passed a provision in the US National Defense Authorization Act for its military to store a cache of weapons in Taiwan.
The authorization is of great importance, showing that the Taiwan-US military relationship is moving toward a new milestone. Specifically, it shows that if the CCP invades or blockades Taiwan, the US could have difficulty transporting military supplies to Taiwan in a timely manner. Stockpiling munitions in advance of an attack would seemsto be a necessary precautionary measure.
The US has been stockpiling weapons around Asia according to its overall strategic considerations. The arms are not limited to local use, as they could be sent to nearby countries in times of conflict. Crucially, weapons stockpiled in Japan, South Korea or the Philippines could support Taiwan if a cross-strait war were to occur.
Similarly, a war in the Korean Peninsula could benefit from munitions stored in Taiwan. If the US engages in war with North Korea, allies such as South Korea and Japan might participate in the effort against a common enemy. Taiwan’s alliance with the US and the local arms cache would bolster security in Northeast Asia.
Since the invasion of Ukraine, the Taiwan Strait and the Korean Peninsula have been identified and watched as places where a similar conflict might occur.
Whether the CCP invades Taiwan is an issue of concern to the US and its democratic allies, because the nation’s strategic position is crucial to global security interests.
Based on these factors, the US security assessment of Taiwan concluded that a stockpile of munitions in Taiwan is an urgent priority for contingency purposes. This pragmatic approach is likely to deter CCP ambitions around Taiwan, and effectively respond to potential emergencies in the strait.
Yao Chung-yuan is a professor and former deputy director of the Ministry of National Defense’s strategic planning department.
Translated by Eddy Chang
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) were born under the sign of Gemini. Geminis are known for their intelligence, creativity, adaptability and flexibility. It is unlikely, then, that the trade conflict between the US and China would escalate into a catastrophic collision. It is more probable that both sides would seek a way to de-escalate, paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit that allows the global economy some breathing room. Practically speaking, China and the US have vulnerabilities, and a prolonged trade war would be damaging for both. In the US, the electoral system means that public opinion