Among the schemes conducted by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and China to undermine Taiwan, the most incendiary approach has been the dissemination of anti-US narratives.
They insist that the US would not send troops to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, and threaten Taiwanese with the notion that voting for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) would incite a war.
However, if the public bought into the KMT’s alarmist, but empty claim, the KMT would surrender to China and bring an end to the “dilemma” of the Republic of China once in office.
When imagining possible scenarios, China and the KMT have always favored the hypothesis that the US would not come to Taiwan’s military defense.
If China makes a move against Taiwan, as long as the US deploys its navy and air force for reconnaissance and patrolling missions, and continues to supply Taiwan with weapons, intelligence, communications and coordination, then the armed forces would fend off the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) even without the US army present on the ground.
This hypothesis has been playing out in Ukraine for more than a year. Even though the US and NATO have not sent troops to Ukraine, but provided assistance from afar, such as imposing economic sanctions, supplying weapons and helping Ukraine identify and target Russian military devices, Russia has been subjected to high casualties and economic deprivation.
As Ukraine shares its eastern border with Russia, it has been easy for Russia to send in tanks, but the Javelin missiles supplied to Ukraine by the US have caused heavy damage.
While the US has supplied Ukraine with the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, which has a range of up to 80.5km, its assistance providing exact coordinates to Ukrainian forces for strikes on Russian command posts, ammunition depots and supply centers has been crucial in supporting Ukraine’s stiff resistance to Russia’s invasion.
In contrast, Taiwan has the advantage of the natural barrier of the Taiwan Strait. China would need to transport many soldiers and great quantities of supplies across the strait, including armored vehicles, weapons and medical supplies, which would place them in a vulnerable position when crossing the sea.
With Taiwan’s anti-ship missiles and the US’ intelligence, the PLA would have a higher chance of sinking to the bottom of the sea than setting foot on Taiwan. Furthermore, without heavy artillery and supplies, even if some PLA troops managed to land, they would not prevail.
In terms of the various scenarios of a Chinese invasion, whether the US sends troops does not play a decisive role. The KMT’s threat that “young people would be sent to war” is the cost of defending Taiwan’s freedom and democracy.
At a time of fierce rivalry and competition, whether people are fighting for national independence or personal advancement, life is a “battlefield” regardless of war or peace. During peacetime, it is about gaining a technological edge over rivals, and during wartime, it is about utilizing those technologies to fight.
The scenarios made up by China and the KMT are malevolent ploys to turn Taiwan against the US and to promote defeatism. If people vote for the KMT, Taiwan would end up in China’s pocket, and Taiwanese would become slaves of the Chinese Communist Party.
Young people should have the will and courage to fight for their nation and deter the PLA from marching on Taiwan’s soil, with or without the US army.
James Wang is a media commentator.
Translated by Rita Wang
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