Taiwan’s survival is directly connected to that of Ukraine. If Russia is perceived as “winning” in Ukraine, meaning that it annexes and holds significant parts of Ukraine with consequences Russia can accept, then China’s temptation to invade Taiwan might grow ever greater.
However, if Russia is defeated, then the Kremlin’s ability to assist Beijing during an invasion would be dramatically reduced, and it would serve as an example to China about taking big military risks against Taiwan.
Therefore, Taiwan should help Ukraine, because it is in Taiwan’s direct interest to do so. Taiwan needs a soft power strategy to help Ukraine against Russia.
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is a de facto, if not formal, ally of Moscow. China buys gas and oil from Russia, financing its war machine. Beijing has voted “the wrong way” on Ukraine consistently, either voting with Russia or assisting it by “abstaining.”
While China espouses neutrality, its true loyalty lies with Russia. US President Joe Biden’s administration has confronted Beijing over military and economic assistance provided to Russia by Chinese state-owned enterprises. Russia and China have extended the 2001 Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship, and the two states declared that there were “no limits” to the partnership.
While China has offered to mediate peace talks, it is hard to imagine this offer was made in good faith given its biased relationship with Russia.
Prior to the war, Taiwan’s visibility in Ukraine was virtually nil, as Ukrainian leaders attempted to engage China commercially. Since the war began, Ukrainian parliamentarians have created a caucus to promote economic and cultural exchanges with Taiwan. The group has met virtually with Taiwanese legislators, and the group’s leader, Oleksandr Merezhko, chairman of the Ukrainian parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs and Inter-parliamentary Cooperation, has said that Taiwan can help rebuild Ukraine.
Kira Rudik, a Ukrainian lawmaker who heads the pro-European Holos party, visited Taiwan to give thanks for a recent donation to purchase generators. She plans to visit again this spring to discuss improving bilateral relations, with the long-term goal of establishing a Taiwanese representative office in Ukraine.
Given the stakes, a good first step would be for Taiwan to open a representative office now.
Chinese leaders appear to recognize the dangers of this budding relationship.
Last month, Rudik said that the Chinese embassy warned her not to accept the aid to purchase the power generators.
Given that China has provided almost nothing to Ukraine, this is a particularly offensive posture on the part of Beijing. With 17 million Ukrainians lacking regular electricity supply, this warning demonstrates China’s humanitarian indifference and offers an opportunity to clarify the true role of China in the conflict. Taiwan should respond by dramatically increasing its support for Ukraine.
Pre-war, China had some commercial interests in Ukraine. For example, Ukraine purchased equipment from Huawei to support the country’s digital backbone, meaning that Ukraine’s successful tech sector has been built with support from the PRC.
Ukraine needs to remove the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)-controlled “digital rails” and replace them with non-CCP digital rails if it wants to become a full member of the West. This is a commercial and diplomatic opportunity for Taiwan.
By supporting Ukraine, Taiwan can build up its soft power by distinguishing itself from China’s pro-Kremlin approach. In doing so, it can weaken Russia and thus bolster its own security.
Taiwan has announced about US$60 million in assistance to Ukraine thus far. It has also issued technology export restrictions on Russia and Belarus, recently adding even more items to the list.
These initial donations are generous, but not adequate, given Taiwan’s interest in the outcome of this conflict. Taipei should make a US$2 billion commitment to Ukraine over the next four years (US$500 million a year).
Through this large aid package, Taiwan could do the following:
First, it should take as many as 1,000 Ukrainian refugees.
Second, it should ramp up its support for Ukrainian students, build ties with Ukrainian universities and help Ukrainians finish their studies at Taiwanese universities.
Taiwanese universities have offered scholarships to between 18 and 40 students depending on the institution, but further support is needed as Russia continues to bombard Ukrainian schools and universities.
Taiwan should make a big symbolic statement using its excellent education and training institutions.
Third, Taipei should offer at least US$100 million in budget support this year to support the functioning of the Ukrainian state.
Fourth, Taiwan should assist Ukraine in developing its creative economy. Taiwan’s information and communications technology (ICT) sector (a part of the creative economy) accounts for 16.5 percent of gross domestic product, and Taiwan has an even larger creative economy. While Ukraine’s ICT sector accounts for just 4 percent of overall national income, the sector is dynamic and continues to grow.
On a recent trip, Minister of Digital Affairs Audrey Tang (唐鳳) expressed interest in aiding Ukraine’s digital reconstruction given the importance of digitalization to both states. A future Ukraine in the West should have an economy with a much larger creative economy and could benefit from Taiwan.
Taiwanese creators ought to build new partnerships with Ukrainians now.
Fifth, Taipei should use its foreign assistance to help Ukraine transition away from Huawei, ZTE and AliPay, and find safer alternatives.
Sixth, Taiwan should offer US$100 million in grant financing to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (ERBD) for Ukrainian projects. Taiwan has previously provided funding to the ERBD, and there might be opportunities to broaden funding on issues such as digital reconstruction.
Seventh, Taiwan should finance a business conference for the reconstruction of Ukraine sometime this year, hosted in one of the Baltic countries that has strong ties with Taipei. Such a conference would create ties between the Taiwanese private sector and Ukraine.
With targeted steps to support Ukraine economically, Taiwan can enhance its own soft power, create new commercial ties and indirectly weaken China. Every act of generosity by Taiwan is an investment in Taiwan’s security. Every investment by Taiwan in Ukraine is a rebuke to China’s support of Russia. A weakened Russia means a weakened China, and China less likely to try to invade Taiwan.
Taiwan needs a far more aggressive approach to Ukraine and it needs to start now.
Daniel F. Runde is senior vice president and the William A. Schreyer chair in global analysis at the Washington based Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is also the author of the new book The American Imperative: Reclaiming Global Leadership Through Soft Power (Bombardier Books, Feb. 7, 2023).
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