Mon, Aug 29, 2022 page8

• Stephen M. Young On Taiwan: US-Taiwan relations after Pelosi’s visit

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  The controversy in the US and with China over House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan thrust my favorite island-state into the world’s headlines. Despite there being clear precedent for such a visit, Beijing decided to overreact and top it off with missile tests on, around, and over Taiwan. President Biden dispatched an aircraft carrier to the region and sent a strong signal to the PRC that we stand by our long-time friend and partner in the face of this new threat. The international press overdramatized things, as is often their wont, but in the end the trip went forward and reaffirmed Washington’s solid friendship and support for Taiwan.

  Speaker Pelosi’s trip was followed by a visit from a second congressional delegation headed by Massachusetts Senator Edward Markey. Such visits have a long history, demonstrating the vital role Congressional support plays in strengthening Taiwan’s security and close ties with the United States. In addition, as I write, Indiana’s Republican Governor Eric Holcomb is on an Asian visit that included a stop in Taipei, where he too met with President Tsai (蔡英文).

  President Biden and his advisers maintained their cool and provided the necessary logistical support for Speaker Pelosi’s visit, including a US Government plane to carry her delegation there and back. The US Air Force also worked to protect the third-ranking member of the US Government during her travel.

  

  This should not have been a big deal, but Beijing decided to make a fuss. Was it because Xi Jinping (習近平) is angling to gain an unprecedented third term as top leader in the Chinese Government and Party? Did Beijing sense an opportunity to double down on its pressure toward Taipei? Various explanations have been offered, and there are several plausible theories.

  Xi is no doubt quietly nervous as his oversized ambitions focus on becoming the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong (毛澤東). This is to be decided at the Party Congress later this fall. Xi seems to be in good shape, but nothing is certain in the secretive inner workings of the CCP and its core leadership. As a backdrop, China’s economy is slumping from its earlier high growth rates. China has fortified its relationship with fellow authoritarian regime Russia, highlighted a few months ago by Xi’s warm visit with Vladimir Putin in Moscow. The two leaders are seeking to solidify their respective positions with the shared goal of becoming essentially leaders for life. This despite earlier attempts in both Moscow and Beijing to create a more orderly succession process, with de facto term limits for the party and state leaders.

  Putin has apparently quelled any visible opposition to his ambitions, but history informs us that such regimes often look solid — until they aren’t. The possibility of a palace coup is never far behind the curtains. It is difficult to discern the opaque dealings of the Kremlin. But one must wonder if Putin can maintain his grip on power with the opprobrium of much of the world directed at his blatant and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine earlier this year. Sanctions have slowed the Russian economy and strengthened both NATO and the western alliance structure that knits Europe closely to the United States.

  Likewise, Mr. Xi’s desire to replicate Putin’s autocratic tendencies must have some of those who put him in power a decade ago wondering why none of them is being given a shot at the top party and state positions. After all, Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) made a great contribution to Chinese political stability by mandating term limits for the top leaders, following the dominance of Chairman Mao over Chinese politics for nearly half a century.

  Having immersed myself in Chinese and Soviet/Russian politics for the past fifty years, including multiple tours as a diplomat in Russia/the Soviet Union, Beijing, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, I am fascinated by these trends, and concerned about their regional and global implications. For now, Putin is still in command, but one must wonder how long those whose support is essential will continue to turn a blind eye to the strongman’s aggressive posture. His unprovoked invasion of sovereign Ukraine has brought world censure and stringent sanctions on the Russian economy. Then there is the question of Xi’s ambitions, as the Chinese economy is slowing and Beijing’s neighbors from Japan to Vietnam, Indonesia, and Australia all have heightened concerns over the hegemonism Mr. Xi is practicing at home and abroad.

  Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, though controversial in some circles, reinforces American support for Taipei and its strategic position in East Asia. Such highly visible Congressional delegations vividly underscore America’s commitment to our longtime friends. This is one of the few areas where both Democrats and Republicans stand shoulder to shoulder. I don’t see that solidarity wilting in the face of the current blustering out of Beijing.

  In short, the United States remains a solid friend of Taiwan’s, and has recently bolstered regional ties with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam, and southeast Asia. Beijing’s bullying only strengthens these ties. Even India has shown a reluctance to get too cozy with China, which after all has stirred nationalist sentiments in south Asia through its unwarranted border depredations in the high Himalayas.

  Taiwan’s quiet diplomacy with these East and Southeast Asian partners has been effective and will come in handy should China seek to further bully and threaten the island-state. From where I sit, it appears that suspicion toward China is a characteristic shared by all parties in today’s democratic Taiwan. Taipei has also been wise in developing flexible economic and political ties with South and Southeast Asia.

  Speaker Pelosi’s visit, followed by Senator Markey’s visit — despite Beijing’s clumsy efforts to stop it — reinforces my sense that Americans in the top ranks of government will not be cowed by China. This commitment to Taiwan enjoys solid support and will not be shaken through the transition to Republican or Democratic administrations. Beijing should be careful not to test this, for if it does, things will probably not end well for Mr. Xi and his party.

  Ambassador Stephen M. Young (ret.) lived in Kaohsiung as a boy over 50 years ago, and served in AIT four times: as a young consular officer (1981-’82), as a language student (1989-’90), as Deputy Director (1998-2001) and as Director (2006-’9). He visits often and writes regularly about Taiwan matters. Young was also US Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan and Consul General to Hong Kong during his 33-year career as a foreign service officer. He has a BA from Wesleyan University and a PhD from the University of Chicago.
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