Joseph told Pharaoh to use his seven years of plenty to prepare for the lean times to come. In Aesop’s fable, the grasshopper danced away the summer while the industrious ant prepared for a harsh winter.
Western leaders do not lack for good advice from the classics, but clearly they do not always take it.
During the golden era that followed the end of the Cold War, prosperity founded on globalization and “nice” growth (non-inflationary and consistently expansionary) was treated as if it would last forever. Investment in national resilience was ignored. The COVID-19 pandemic, a hostile China and the war in Ukraine have shown that the fruits of the long peace were squandered.
Now Britain is grumbling through “a summer of discontent.” Inflation is running at 9.4 percent while energy costs have soared 57 percent, with more hikes due in October. Public-sector unions naturally want pay raises to match spiraling prices so have been flexing their muscles. The railway network is being brought to a standstill by strikes.
Had political leaders bit the bullet during the good times and enforced realistic staffing levels and flexible working, then higher wages for railway workers might make sense.
However, in the good years, no government was prepared to expend the political capital. The unions thus force drivers on London Underground railways designed to be driverless. Today most passengers also purchase their tickets from machines not ticket offices, yet the unions have successfully insisted that the latter stay open.
There is a wider unease about the British government’s capacity to deliver. In a moment of remarkable candor, Michael Gove, one of the most experienced Cabinet ministers until he last month fell out with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, told a think tank: “There are some core functions — giving you your passport, giving your driving licenses — which are simply, at the moment, not functioning.”
Even if you have a passport, leaving the country is no picnic. Dover, the main seaport for car journeys to continental Europe, has seen long lines for passport checks. Try to escape by plane and you will find that airlines have canceled many flights for lack of staff, many of whom were imprudently dismissed during the pandemic. “Short-termism” has become part of the national character.
A penny-wise policy of restricting the number of hospital beds was also shown to be pound-foolish during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the health system has been in crisis ever since. An almost 7 million-strong waiting list for treatment has built up.
Residents should not expect to get to hospital in a hurry, even if they suffer a heart attack. The average waiting time for an ambulance is 52 minutes — that is 30 minutes more than is mandated. Appointments with general practitioners are also hard to get. A free National Health Service is all very well, but only if it can be used.
Passport delays, transport bottlenecks and government paralysis can be fixed, but some structural reforms are well overdue.
Near where I live in north London, a water main burst, flooding the streets. Billions of liters of water are wasted this way every year. My local privatized water company Thames Water urged me to be “a hot spot hero,” by taking care to save “every drop” of water. A drought has been officially declared, hosepipe bans have been imposed and talk of rationing is rife — even as Britain has been getting more rainfall by the year.
A modest proposal: Can they just fix the pipes?
No new reservoirs have been dug despite a rising population. The Environment Agency opposed the last one because it was “not needed.” The regulatory agency for water has allowed investment levels in the industry to fall despite record profits.
Furthermore, a “winter of discontent” lies ahead. The energy consultancy Cornwall Insight predicted the energy price cap would increase from £1,971 to £4,427 (US$2,381 to US$5,348) by April.
Will the lights go out? Bloomberg last week reported the UK government’s contingency planning for power blackouts has deepened the gathering gloom — not since the 1970s has there been talk of a three-day week and rationing.
If only past governments had listened to expert advice about investing in an energy mix that included nuclear power and domestic gas as well as renewable energy sources.
However, an obstructive planning regime invited delay, and the political class as ever found strong short-term electoral incentives to put off hard choices.
Meanwhile, British Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs Liz Truss and former chancellor of the exchequer Rishi Sunak continue their ill-tempered contest for the leadership of the Conservative Party and the country, while the rest of the government takes a long holiday.
Their talk of tax cuts and handouts is crowd-pleasing. However, with a general election due within two years, which of them is brave enough to plan for a wider time horizon? Whether big state or small, we all just want one that works.
Martin Ivens is the editor of the Times Literary Supplement. Previously, he was editor of the Sunday Times of London and its chief political commentator. This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
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