As the Nov. 26 local elections draw nearer, speculation about who would be the next Taipei mayor is heating up. Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Legislator Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安) has thrown his hat into the ring, while his likely rivals, Taipei Deputy Mayor Vivian Huang (黃珊珊) of the People First Party and Minister of Health and Welfare Chen Shih-chung (陳時中) of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), have yet to declare their candidacy. Rumors are also rife that Huang might run as an independent or as the representative of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP).
A host of media outlets have been conducting opinion polls based on the three candidates. RW News on Wednesday published a survey on negative partisanship to show public sentiment toward the DPP and the KMT.
The results show that 44.09 percent of respondents are in the anti-green camp: 33.75 percent “hate the DPP only,” 5.22 percent “support the TPP only” and 5.12 percent “support the KMT only.” Meanwhile, 41.77 percent of respondents are in the anti-blue camp: 23.12 percent “favor the DPP only,” 11.53 percent “hate the KMT only” and 7.12 percent “hate the TPP only.”
Among independent voters, 14.14 percent neither hate nor favor any party.
In another survey on which candidate they support, 34.75 percent of respondents would vote for Chen, 32.6 percent favor Chiang and 23.72 percent support Huang, while 7.72 percent remain undecided.
Chiang has lost significant ground compared with last year’s opinion poll, in which he enjoyed a support rate of 64.7 percent.
The reason for the drop lies in his image and campaign approach.
Chiang — the KMT’s great hope to regain control of the capital — has not shaken off his image as the “party’s boy”— polite, meek and mild-mannered — characteristics that put him out of touch with the public. Compared with Chen, who has been heading the Central Epidemic Command Center’s news conference for two years, or Huang, who has been attending to city events as deputy mayor, Chiang’s media appearances are limited and he has not been able to attract the same level of publicity as the other two.
For politicians, the most common way to garner support is to criticize their rivals for their policies, scandals or misconduct. Chiang’s hesitance in speaking out against Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲), the TPP chairman, raises doubts about his leadership and his vision for Taipei, leaving voters questioning why they should support him.
The poll’s 33.75 percent “hate the DPP only” leaves a lot of room for the KMT and the TPP to tap into, as only 5.12 percent are loyal supporters of the KMT and 5.22 percent of the TPP. Tactical voting would most likely take place among the 33.75 percent, as these voters are united in their hate of the DPP, but do not have any party affiliation.
These swing voters would look to the candidate who speaks out against the DPP, casting their vote for the KMT, TPP or any other non-DPP candidate. Chiang seems to be struggling to make an impression on voters, while Huang is quickly catching up by deploying her administrative resources and her connections with local factions. For these anti-DPP voters, Huang could well become their choice over Chiang.
The other poll shows Chen leading in the race, albeit within the margin of error. However, it also shows that Taipei is no longer the KMT stronghold it was once believed to be, given its large waishengren (外省人) presence. After eight years of Ko’s administration, if Chiang could not prove that he would be a better and more competent leader, his status as the bellwether would only continue to nosedive.
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