On Monday next week, soldiers are expected to be marching down the sacred cobblestone ground of Red Square with clamoring tanks rolling after them, and Sukhoi jets soaring above the skies of the Kremlin in a pro-war “Z” formation.
Victory Day, celebrated every May 9, is a sacred holiday for Russia. It commemorates the defeat of Nazi Germany by the Soviet Red Army, a feat accomplished with 27 million Soviet lives.
During the post-Cold-War period of cordial relations with the West, Russia emphasized the shared victory of the Allied countries. In 2005, former US president George W. Bush attended the parade alongside the leaders of Japan, France and Germany.
An unusual atmosphere has been set for this year’s Victory Parade. With war being waged in Ukraine, and neither victory nor defeat in sight, Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to use his annual speech to remind Russians of the sacrifices of the country’s veterans and ancestors, shedding words of the duty and obligation each Russian must maintain for this hard-earned victory, one that can only be achieved through sacrifice.
Certainly Putin wants to highlight that the so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine is being conducted in an effort to “de-Nazify” the country.
For Putin’s regime, victory, even that of 1945, remains far from secure.
The sacrifice Russians have made, whether willingly or unwillingly, has been painful. The war has left Russia as the most sanctioned country in the world with half of the country’s assets frozen.
Western firms of well-known brands have suspended operations in the country. The price of medication, especially antidepressants, has soared as a result of supply chain shocks and shortages. Inflation is predicted to reach 23 percent this year. No one knows what tomorrow might bring.
The precariousness that Russia is in today is an undesirable place to be. The war has unleashed a range of emotions from chest-thumping nationalism to grief-stricken guilt.
There are those who are proud of what Russia is doing, brandishing “Z” T-shirts while claiming that Russia is fighting a cause that is just against “Ukrainian Nazis” funded by the West.
Then there are Russians who have a conscience, recognizing that this is a senseless war, one waged by an insecure regime out to bring Russia and the whole world down with it if victory is not possible.
The war has split families and friends. A friend of mine told me that his mother and grandmother have not spoken for almost a month due to different views on the war; the latter fully supports the cause. Even as I write, I worry that my words could offend my acquaintances, but there comes a time when Russians cannot remain silent.
I recall during a dinner in the early days of the war, most shockingly, the words of a Russian friend whose grandparents are Ukrainian and living in Kyiv. At the time, the Russians had surrounded Kyiv and were heavily bombarding the city.
We asked him worryingly how his grandparents were, to which he reassured us that they were taking shelter in their basement.
Naturally, I asked what his thoughts were of the war.
“Ukraine asked for it,” he said.
I was at a loss for words. Many of us were, but this was the consequence of jingoistic propaganda filling the minds of Russians. How could someone, in the same breath, worry about his grandparents being bombed by Russians and at the same time support the very country that was bombing them? Here I witnessed the mindless nature of war.
I worry for other places resting on geopolitical fault lines, Taiwan comes to mind. Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine was undoubtedly obfuscated by nationalism. Putin himself claims that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people.”
Recall that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) thinks the same of the Chinese and Taiwanese. Much has been said about Ukraine and its lessons for Taiwan, but geopolitics aside, nationalism in China could easily boil over just as it has in Russia. Taiwan must remain steadfast and ready to defend itself. If Ukraine fails to stop expansionist autocrats, then the burden could rest on Taiwan.
It is easy to believe that decisions to initiate war are carried out after careful consideration involving months, perhaps years, of planning. There are supposed to be clear objectives that can be quickly achieved. Losses are expected, but that is the cost of victory.
However, the longer a war drags on, the farther it becomes divorced from reason. More young boys are being sent “over there” across the trenches and fields to face instant death from the barrel of an enemy’s gun.
How far have Russians come from the fields of Verdun to the plains of Ukraine? Never again, never again. People always said that, and yet it is being said once more.
The Victory of 1945 was a victory for humanity. The world united against the dark forces of Nazism, setting aside differences and embracing each other as US and Soviet soldiers did at the Elbe.
It is a shame for the world to believe that it has won against such dark forces when today women and children are hiding in cellars from deathly rockets, while on roads through birch forests, where German tanks once rolled east, Russian tanks are chugging along westward.
Putin might be right to say that the victory of 1945 is far from our reach, but does he realize that he alone stands in the way of it?
Nikolai Litvinov resides in Moscow.
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