The primary purpose of the military’s annual Han Kuang exercises is to test the nation’s defenses against an amphibious invasion by China, which is predicated on the assumption that Taiwan proper would be the primary theater of operations. The tri-service air defense, maritime interception and land defense exercises are the largest military exercises held by Taiwan’s armed forces.
While the exercises conform with Taiwan’s strategic defense goals in respect of conventional combat operations, the Ministry of National Defense needs to reassess whether the Han Kuang exercises adequately prepare the military to respond to new threats in an era of “gray zone” operations, particularly when directed against the outlying islands.
On Feb. 5, a Chinese Harbin Y-12 light civilian transport aircraft flew close to the controlled airspace of Dongyin Island (東引), a small militarized island in the Matsu (馬祖) archipelago. Because the ministry did not provide a clear account of the events in the first instance, many observers had misgivings over the incident.
Ten days after the incident, the ministry acknowledged that the intruder was a Chinese civilian aircraft, and said it could not rule out that the aircraft might have been used by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force to test the island’s emergency response measures.
In October 2020, a PLA uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) intruded into Taiwan’s southwestern air defense identification zone (ADIZ) for the first time. The military responded by tracking the UAV with radar and deploying air defense missile systems.
The Coast Guard Administration in April last year revealed that a PLA drone had flown several circuits around the Taiwan-controlled Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands, 東沙群島). The agency did not rule out that the UAV could have been used to conduct reconnaissance and intelligence gathering.
These incidents demonstrate that China is using “gray zone” operations as a tactic to deliberately provoke Taiwan and expand its military’s footprint.
Tokyo University of Foreign Studies professor Yoshiyuki Ogasawara, a specialist on Taiwan, wrote in Newsweek in February last year that the probability of a Chinese attack on Taiwan remains low, mainly because it would meet military resistance from Taiwan and the US, and face a global surge of anti-China sentiment.
However, Ogasawara also said that taking the Pratas Islands would be one of the PLA’s first objectives during an invasion. Furthermore, due to their small size, remote location and as a garrison for about 500 soldiers, it would take some time for the military to provide emergency reinforcements, he said.
The PLA in the past few years has practiced amphibious landings and simulated the capturing of outlying islands in the South China Sea. These exercises have severely tested the existing defense arrangements on Itu Aba Island (Taiping Island, 太平島), the Pratas Islands and other Taiwanese-controlled outlying islands.
The PLA’s strategy is transparent. It would first normalizes these types of drills in waters near Taiwan’s outlying islands before conducting “gray zone” operations to provoke a conflict that saps the morale of Taiwanese forces. Then the PLA would declare an air and maritime exclusion zone, and cut off supply lines of Taiwanese forces stationed on one or more of the islands. The PLA would then conduct an amphibious operation to capture one or more islands and use the victory to force Taipei to enter into political negotiations.
Whether PLA or Chinese civilian aircraft, any incursion into Taiwanese-controlled airspace is not just an infringement of Taiwanese sovereignty, but also a threat to the security of residents living on the islands. To meet the challenge of the PLA’s new form of hybrid warfare, which combines “gray zone” tactics with cognitive warfare, the ministry must implement a few measures.
First, it must revise the military’s standard operating procedures for peacetime emergency response. Second, it must reassess and revise its annual Han Kuang exercises, as well as its “Gu’an” all-island combat strategy for the defense of Taiwan proper, along with Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu islands. Third, the review must include a new strategy to deal with military scenarios generated by PLA “gray zone” tactics and the defense of smaller offshore islands, such as the Pratas and Itu Aba.
Yao Chung-yuan is a professor and former deputy director of the Ministry of National Defense’s strategic planning department.
Translated by Edward Jones
A chip made by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) was found on a Huawei Technologies Co artificial intelligence (AI) processor, indicating a possible breach of US export restrictions that have been in place since 2019 on sensitive tech to the Chinese firm and others. The incident has triggered significant concern in the IT industry, as it appears that proxy buyers are acting on behalf of restricted Chinese companies to bypass the US rules, which are intended to protect its national security. Canada-based research firm TechInsights conducted a die analysis of the Huawei Ascend 910B AI Trainer, releasing its findings on Oct.
Pat Gelsinger took the reins as Intel CEO three years ago with hopes of reviving the US industrial icon. He soon made a big mistake. Intel had a sweet deal going with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), the giant manufacturer of semiconductors for other companies. TSMC would make chips that Intel designed, but could not produce and was offering deep discounts to Intel, four people with knowledge of the agreement said. Instead of nurturing the relationship, Gelsinger — who hoped to restore Intel’s own manufacturing prowess — offended TSMC by calling out Taiwan’s precarious relations with China. “You don’t want all of
In honor of President Jimmy Carter’s 100th birthday, my longtime friend and colleague John Tkacik wrote an excellent op-ed reassessing Carter’s derecognition of Taipei. But I would like to add my own thoughts on this often-misunderstood president. During Carter’s single term as president of the United States from 1977 to 1981, despite numerous foreign policy and domestic challenges, he is widely recognized for brokering the historic 1978 Camp David Accords that ended the state of war between Egypt and Israel after more than three decades of hostilities. It is considered one of the most significant diplomatic achievements of the 20th century.
In a recent essay in Foreign Affairs, titled “The Upside on Uncertainty in Taiwan,” Johns Hopkins University professor James B. Steinberg makes the argument that the concept of strategic ambiguity has kept a tenuous peace across the Taiwan Strait. In his piece, Steinberg is primarily countering the arguments of Tufts University professor Sulmaan Wasif Khan, who in his thought-provoking new book The Struggle for Taiwan does some excellent out-of-the-box thinking looking at US policy toward Taiwan from 1943 on, and doing some fascinating “what if?” exercises. Reading through Steinberg’s comments, and just starting to read Khan’s book, we could already sense that
RSS