Since Taiwan’s accession to the WTO in 2002, China has used its political clout and massive market to influence the international community’s attitude toward the nation’s participation in international organizations.
On Taiwan’s long road to joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), apart from complying with organizational rules and negotiating trade conditions with member states, the nation should focus on critical links such as whether the CPTPP commission would commence the accession process with Taiwan, and whether it would establish a working group to negotiate Taiwan’s accession on a consensus basis. It should also resolve member states’ political concerns caused by cross-strait tensions.
Taiwan cannot rely on the US for everything. From US President Joe Biden’s “Indo-Pacific Economic Framework,” proposed at the East Asia Summit in October last year, to US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo’s latest discourse, it is known that joining the CPTPP is not a priority for Washington.
In terms of the focus of Taiwan-US cooperation on regional economic and trade issues, Taiwan should persuade the US to exert its influence to encourage its allies in the CPTPP to support Taiwan. Washington should also accelerate the deployment of Taiwan’s role under the Indo-Pacific economic framework.
Next, Taiwan should negotiate and cooperate with CPTPP members that are relatively friendly to it. A ban on food imports from five Japanese prefectures should be removed as soon as possible.
Late last year, Japanese Representative to Taiwan Hiroyasu Izumi said that the food import issue would not be bundled with Taiwan’s CPTPP bid and would be discussed separately.
However, the lifting of the ban would surely be an issue during bilateral negotiations between Taiwan and Japan or the CPTPP accession talks.
Last, the CPTPP’s “rotating presidency” is absolutely crucial to applicant countries. This year, Singapore is holding the presidency, Japan the first presidency and New Zealand the second vice presidency. Next year New Zealand, Singapore and Canada are to hold the respective positions, to be followed by Canada, New Zealand and Australia in 2024.
Among the CPTPP’s current voting members, Peru seems to be the least friendly to Taiwan. Meanwhile, Chile and Malaysia, which have better relations with China, might clear the domestic procedures required to join the CPTPP this year and obtain the right to vote. Under such circumstances, Taiwan should maintain mutual trust and cooperation with more friendly countries holding the rotating presidency to promote its bid.
After Taiwan and China signed the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement in 2010, Taiwan and Singapore signed the Agreement Between Singapore and Taiwan on Economic Partnership in 2014, when cross-strait relations were better.
However, for Singapore, swinging back and forth between major powers in international politics has been a way of survival, and the country is well aware of the political complexity of Taiwan’s bid. Therefore, it would neither take such pressure solely by itself nor explicitly oppose the bid.
Australia, Canada, Japan and New Zealand, for their part, have different degrees of political conflict with China. As Taiwan and the four countries are regarded as being members of “Team USA,” to varying degrees, the nation should strive for the support of each of them.
The government must make every effort to seize the most favorable period between this year and 2024 for its bid.
Hong Chi-chang is a former chairman of the Straits Exchange Foundation.
Translated by Eddy Chang
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