In an article published in Foreign Policy magazine titled “China is a declining power — and that’s the problem,” two highly reputable academics use “power transition theory” (PTT) as a base for their arguments.
PTT was founded by my adviser at Claremont Graduate University, Jacek Kugler, and his mentor, A.F.K. Organski.
PTT believes that the unipolar world dominated by a single hegemony (from 1990 to last year) is the most stable setup in international relations compared with the bipolar (US-Soviet Union) or multipolar (Europe before World War II) world.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is undermining the current state of unipolar stability.
PTT believes that great power wars usually occur at the intersection of the rise of an emerging hegemony and the decline of the reigning “status quo” hegemony.
The two authors believe that in the past 150 years, emerging powers that have peaked and then plateaued — after experiencing a severe, long-term slowdown — usually do not quietly disappear.
Instead, they become arrogant and aggressive. They suppress dissent at home and try to regain economic momentum by establishing exclusive spheres of influence abroad. They invest a lot of money in the military and apply force to expand their influence.
This behavior usually triggers tensions between major powers. In some cases, it involves catastrophic wars.
The current situation of the Chinese Communist Party regime reflects the above scenario.
I must agree with most of the points of the Foreign Policy article. The good news is that the disastrous power of nuclear bombs might make all parties more prudent. The bad news is that misperception from China could still trigger a devastating major war.
My take, as well as that of the two authors, is that the fate of the world is in Xi’s hands and Taiwan is the main flashpoint.
Regardless of whether China’s power is declining or not, it is its elites’ perception that counts. Judging from Xi’s recent paranoid foreign and domestic policies, I conclude that he thinks he and his party are in trouble. That “misperception” will get the whole world into trouble.
I also conclude that Xi’s recent heavy-handed, centralized, overreaching economic and financial policies will stifle China’s economy; but it will take time to manifest unless everything I have learned since my college years is capitalist brainwashing garbage.
An authoritarian government that practices national capitalism such as Nazi Germany or China before Xi, under former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平), may be a superior economic model if it can rein in its aggressive expansionism.
However, there is not a single government since the 20th century that has succeeded with the radical nationalization policy that Xi is now trying.
Xi has staked his reputation on Taiwan. When he turns 70 two years from now, he is going to become increasingly aware that his time is running out. People do not get into his position without having enormous egos, which they project out all through their lifetimes, so they become invested in the ridiculous belief that their “legacies” matter to them.
All in all, Taiwan is a big concern.
I hope Taiwan’s government and its people realize that. Buckle up everyone — the perfect storm is coming.
Simon Tang is an adjunct professor at California State University, Fullerton.
Taiwan’s fall would be “a disaster for American interests,” US President Donald Trump’s nominee for undersecretary of defense for policy Elbridge Colby said at his Senate confirmation hearing on Tuesday last week, as he warned of the “dramatic deterioration of military balance” in the western Pacific. The Republic of China (Taiwan) is indeed facing a unique and acute threat from the Chinese Communist Party’s rising military adventurism, which is why Taiwan has been bolstering its defenses. As US Senator Tom Cotton rightly pointed out in the same hearing, “[although] Taiwan’s defense spending is still inadequate ... [it] has been trending upwards
There is nothing the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) could do to stop the tsunami-like mass recall campaign. KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) reportedly said the party does not exclude the option of conditionally proposing a no-confidence vote against the premier, which the party later denied. Did an “actuary” like Chu finally come around to thinking it should get tough with the ruling party? The KMT says the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is leading a minority government with only a 40 percent share of the vote. It has said that the DPP is out of touch with the electorate, has proposed a bloated
In an eloquently written piece published on Sunday, French-Taiwanese education and policy consultant Ninon Godefroy presents an interesting take on the Taiwanese character, as viewed from the eyes of an — at least partial — outsider. She muses that the non-assuming and quiet efficiency of a particularly Taiwanese approach to life and work is behind the global success stories of two very different Taiwanese institutions: Din Tai Fung and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC). Godefroy said that it is this “humble” approach that endears the nation to visitors, over and above any big ticket attractions that other countries may have
A media report has suggested that Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) was considering initiating a vote of no confidence in Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰) in a bid to “bring down the Cabinet.” The KMT has denied that this topic was ever discussed. Why might such a move have even be considered? It would have been absurd if it had seen the light of day — potentially leading to a mass loss of legislative seats for the KMT even without the recall petitions already under way. Today the second phase of the recall movement is to begin — which has