As the incursions by China into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone intensify, the international community’s anxiety has risen over the question of whether the US military would become directly involved in the case of an attack on Taiwan.
Washington’s long-held policy of “strategic ambiguity” does little to ease the trepidation.
The rationale universally espoused on “strategic ambiguity” is that an announced commitment from Washington to directly defend Taiwan would encourage Taiwanese independence and consequently bring forth a Chinese military attack and a possible nuclear confrontation between two superpowers.
However, this line of argument could soon lose steam if the subject is viewed from a different angle.
Let us suppose a different question: “What are the odds that the US military would not become directly involved in the case of China attacking Taiwan?”
The answer is a definitive “zero” because no US administration could survive the risk of “losing Taiwan without a fight.” In fact, this reality has already started to unfold.
Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the US Pacific Fleet, on June 29 said: “At Pacific Fleet and Indo-Pacific Command, we have a duty to be ready to respond to threats to US security.”
He further clarified the “duty” as including readying a fleet “capable of thwarting any effort on the part of the Chinese ... to include the unification by force of Taiwan to the People’s Republic of China.”
It is apparent that the US military views “strategic clarity” as an asset of deterrence and a means to discourage Beijing’s miscalculations.
There is no secret that Taiwanese covet Washington’s formal recognition of Taiwan as a sovereign nation.
However, the realization of that is impossible until Washington deems the decision necessary and beneficial from a US national security point of view.
That opportunity would arrive the moment Beijing launches a military assault on Taiwan that unavoidably draws in the US.
The legality that could justify Washington implementing a foreign expedition of this nature requires the formal recognition of a sovereign Taiwan lest the US military be restrained in any manner to the detriment of its troops’ well-being or performance of duty.
The reality might even dictate that the timing of recognition be advanced significantly earlier considering the need to permanently station in Taiwan a “tripwire force” of a 20,000 personnel armored division, a calculation floated by some in US Army circles.
Inadvertently, Beijing acting forcefully in “fulfilling” its “historical mission” of “bringing Taiwan into the embrace of motherland China” might hasten the realization of Taiwan’s independence as long as Taiwanese hold firm, a point that should not be lost on Beijing.
Huang Jei-hsuan is a Taiwanese American residing in the Los Angeles area.
Could Asia be on the verge of a new wave of nuclear proliferation? A look back at the early history of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which recently celebrated its 75th anniversary, illuminates some reasons for concern in the Indo-Pacific today. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin recently described NATO as “the most powerful and successful alliance in history,” but the organization’s early years were not without challenges. At its inception, the signing of the North Atlantic Treaty marked a sea change in American strategic thinking. The United States had been intent on withdrawing from Europe in the years following
My wife and I spent the week in the interior of Taiwan where Shuyuan spent her childhood. In that town there is a street that functions as an open farmer’s market. Walk along that street, as Shuyuan did yesterday, and it is next to impossible to come home empty-handed. Some mangoes that looked vaguely like others we had seen around here ended up on our table. Shuyuan told how she had bought them from a little old farmer woman from the countryside who said the mangoes were from a very old tree she had on her property. The big surprise
The issue of China’s overcapacity has drawn greater global attention recently, with US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen urging Beijing to address its excess production in key industries during her visit to China last week. Meanwhile in Brussels, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last week said that Europe must have a tough talk with China on its perceived overcapacity and unfair trade practices. The remarks by Yellen and Von der Leyen come as China’s economy is undergoing a painful transition. Beijing is trying to steer the world’s second-largest economy out of a COVID-19 slump, the property crisis and
As former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) wrapped up his visit to the People’s Republic of China, he received his share of attention. Certainly, the trip must be seen within the full context of Ma’s life, that is, his eight-year presidency, the Sunflower movement and his failed Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, as well as his eight years as Taipei mayor with its posturing, accusations of money laundering, and ups and downs. Through all that, basic questions stand out: “What drives Ma? What is his end game?” Having observed and commented on Ma for decades, it is all ironically reminiscent of former US president Harry