Tue, May 25, 2021 page8

• The Liberty Times Editorial: Preparing for the worst scenario

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  Several incidents that occurred within the space of a week have shown just how rapidly things can change in Taiwan.

  First there was a major power outage on May 13, causing rolling blackouts that affected 4 million users throughout the nation. Due to the sudden nature of the outage, people were caught in elevators, at the supermarket checkout or withdrawing money from the bank, while malfunctioning traffic lights caused congestion, motorists were caught filling their tanks at gas stations and offices were plunged into darkness, disrupting the lives of many people going about their everyday tasks.

  Following in swift succession was news of a spike in COVID-19 infections, forcing the government to declare level 3 restrictions first in Taipei and New Taipei City, and then across the nation. Although panic buying of daily necessities was short-lived, concern over a potential outbreak was pressing on everyone’s minds.

  Faced with power cuts, COVID-19 outbreak and continued military intimidation from China, everybody needs to stay vigilant, because it is only when we are prepared for the worst-case scenario that we can prevent the unthinkable from happening.

  For now, Taiwanese are most concerned about the outbreak. Since the COVID-19 pandemic began more than a year ago, Taiwan has performed admirably, and the number of confirmed cases and deaths had been kept to a minimum, with the international media calling Taiwan an oasis among chaos in the rest of the world.

  However, the situation has since deteriorated, possibly because the low number of cases over such a long period of time had led to a certain self-satisfaction and complacency, together with a tendency to lower one’s guard and surrender to pandemic fatigue, allowing the virus to find a way in.

  Fighting the virus is a long and grueling match, and just because we appear to have played well in the first half, there is no guarantee that we would emerge victorious when the final whistle blows.

  The experiences of other countries show that, in fighting the virus, in addition to preventing infections, it is important to ensure that health services do not become inundated and collapse. Our effective response to the COVID-19 pandemic thus far can be attributed to the lessons we learned fighting the SARS epidemic 17 years ago.

  Taiwan has a first rate healthcare system, and it established good standard operating procedures, with testing and hospital and healthcare worker prioritization early on. Most Taiwanese are also aware of the importance of handwashing and wearing masks. For all the valuable experience obtained during the SARS epidemic, we need to redouble our efforts to fight the COVID-19 virus, which is even more virulent, and which has many different strains.

  The glaring Achilles’ heel in our anti-viral armory is a lack of vaccines. The experiences of Israel and the US show that vaccinations are an invaluable weapon in stopping the situation from deteriorating. However, we have found ourselves inadequately armed, with no option to reinforce our stocks in the short term, having to rely on the government’s expert judgement and handling of the situation, and especially the medical resources and efficient operation of the systems in place.

  Public self-discipline and politicians’ ability to rein themselves in are also important. Personal discipline would include wearing masks, refraining from hoarding medical supplies, stopping the spread of disinformation and complying with home quarantine requirements.

  Politicians, for their part, should give certain activities a rest, such as using the pandemic to further their political agenda, stirring up political division or engaging in ridiculous comments, such as calling for the execution of Minister of Health and Welfare Chen Shih-chung (陳時中).

  The challenge posed by the pandemic is how to deal with a deteriorating situation, whereas the May 13 rolling blackouts were a major test that had to be dealt with in real time.

  According to the official explanation, the problem was the result of human error, when a Taiwan Power (Taipower) employee mistakenly tripped an isolation switch at the Singda Power Plant in Kaohsiung, leading to a malfunction that resulted in a precipitous drop in power supply.

  We have been here before. The power outage on Aug. 15, 2017, was also due to human error. The incident showed once again an inherent weakness in our power supply, a problem in a small link in the chain causing the failure of the entire system.

  Similar incidents have happened for many years now. There were two power cuts in 1999 — in July and September. The first was caused by the collapse of an electricity pylon in Tainan, triggering a power cut that affected 80 percent of users across the nation; the second was due to the Sept. 21, 1999, earthquake.

  Apart from the issue of a power shortage, the main problem with electricity supply is a poor distribution network that continues to hobble Taipower. The lion’s share of electricity generation occurs in the nation’s south, resulting in an inherent system imbalance in which electricity generated in the south needs to be sent up to central and northern Taiwan. The center and the north rely on the south, but the long distance the power needs to travel results in a loss of efficiency, and the way things are currently set up means that a single mishap in the south can lead to power outages throughout the nation.

  Following the May 13 outage, Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chi-mai (陳其邁), whose city hosts three power plants, said that areas that generate power should get to use that power. In so doing, he was appealing to the principle of fairness, but his words also touched on the crux of the problem of having this power generation imbalance.

  Following the successive power cuts in 1999, a number of changes were introduced, albeit too little, too late, but plans to achieve more balance in the distribution of power plants around the country, with a power supply system consisting of many interconnected, small-scale local plants that would also help stabilize the grid, were never really fully realized. Had Taipower and the Ministry of Economic Affairs been able to overcome these problems, we would not have had a repeat of the issue two decades later.

  There are also concerns within the international community over Taiwan’s security, given continued military harassment by China. Many US government officials, lawmakers, military leaders, think tanks and the international media have given warnings of how the Taiwan Strait is currently the most dangerous place on Earth, how China could invade in 2027 or how a Chinese military invasion is more imminent, and yet there are still those in Taiwan who play the threat down, placing them at odds with a Financial Times article urging Taiwan’s leaders and the international community to open their eyes to the potential for conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

  With China applying pressure in this way, if we are to protect Taiwan’s security and sovereignty, we need to do more than consider our national defense budget or our recruitment of standing and reserve forces, or how we adjust our military strategy or reinforce our military presence on outlying islands, or how we conduct military drills and exercises: The government and opposition parties and society as a whole must come together and demonstrate the resolve to resist our belligerent neighbor.

  Israeli Representative to Taiwan Omer Caspi on May 14 published an article in the Chinese-language Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister paper) about the conflict in the Middle East, in which he cited the words of Israeli President Reuven Rivlin on the life choices that Israelis need to take amid a hostile environment, about how they need to be prepared and armed for conflict, how they need to show the strength and resolve to safeguard their homeland, and how this is a test that they need to overcome.

  Faced with a pandemic, major power outages and the threat of invasion by China, it is imperative that we be aware of the risks and prepared for the worst-case scenario, ready to demonstrate our strength and resolve, and to step up to the mark when asked to. Only then will we be able to safeguard our security.

  Translated by Paul Cooper
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