No longer content to hide its capabilities and ambition, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) appears intent on alerting the world to its newfound strength by conducting various forms of military “gray zone” warfare in the Indo-Pacific region. One area of particular concern is the almost daily incursions by Chinese warplanes into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ).
Last year, Chinese warplanes logged a record 380 incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ, causing Taipei to scramble its fighter jets, issue warnings and activate missile defense systems.
On Monday last week, Taiwan saw 25 Chinese military aircraft, including 14 Shenyang J-16 fighters, four Chengdu J-10 fighters and four Xian H-6 bombers, fly through its ADIZ, the largest number of aircraft since the Ministry of National Defense started publicizing incursions in September last year.
The unprecedented size and volume of Beijing’s incursions have raised concern in Washington over a pending invasion of Taiwan.
“The threat is manifest during this decade, in fact, in the next six years,” US Admiral Philip Davidson, then-commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, said on March 9 in his final testimony before the US Senate Committee on Armed Services.
His successor, US Admiral John Aquilino, said that Taiwan would be his top concern, and while declining to put forth a timeframe on a potential invasion, told senators at his confirmation hearing: “My opinion is, this problem is much closer to us than most think.”
While it is certainly in the interest of US military planners not to underestimate the threat from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA), just how anxious should we be over a potential invasion?
Beyond brief skirmishes, the PLA fought its last war more than 40 years ago at the border with Vietnam, which lasted six weeks and resulted in about 50,000 casualties, with both sides declaring victory.
While the PLA has amassed far greater capability since 1979, CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping’s (習近平) goal of modernizing the military by 2035 is still many years away, although some analysts have said that the PLA would be “fully mechanized and informationized by 2027,” the 100th anniversary of its founding.
Even with a fully modernized and capable army, the topography of Taiwan makes it extremely challenging for the amphibious invasion necessary to succeed, especially when Taiwan has had decades to prepare its defensive posture.
While there remain significant concerns as to Taiwan’s ability to withstand the first two weeks of an onslaught, should the US (and an ally or two) choose to intervene, the defeat of the PLA (or any protracted guerilla war) would gravely threaten the legitimacy of CCP rule over China.
At a time when COVID-19 and its variants continue to disrupt the worldwide economic and social order, the ramifications of another sustained war potentially drawing in the allies of Washington is inconceivable.
Rather than a prelude to World War III, Beijing’s aggression around Taiwan can be viewed as an early test of US President Joe Biden’s administration, and an expression of displeasure over the continued growth of diplomatic, economic and social ties between Taipei and Washington.
China’s show of force is also intended to demonstrate to the world and the Chinese public how far the country has come in the past century. During this year’s celebration of the founding of the CCP in 1921, China is unlikely to welcome further international condemnation or risk retaliatory strikes on its soil.
Next year, Beijing hopes to attract international visitors to China for the Winter Olympics in February. As I witnessed during the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, the CCP went to great lengths to present to a worldwide audience its ability to execute a flawless sporting event. Starting a potentially protracted war over Taiwan ahead of the Winter Olympics would be ill-considered.
Lastly, the CCP’s National Party Congress is to be held in November next year, and but for an unlikely declaration of independence from Taiwan, Xi would be unwise to risk his appointment to a third term by waging a highly unpredictable war over Taiwan.
No, the invasion of Taiwan is not imminent. However, the overemphasis of the threat has assisted Beijing in its campaign of psychological warfare toward Taiwanese and the international community. On the other hand, the PLA’s aggression toward Taiwanese has also alerted Washington and its regional allies to the need for collective military preparedness to deal now with a threat still several years away.
For the near term, the show of force around Taiwan’s airspace and waters should be viewed more as training exercises, or a military parade for domestic and international consumption to mark the 100th anniversary of the CCP, and help usher in the reign of Xi’s third term, rather than the prelude to a full-scale invasion.
Gary Sands is a senior analyst at Wikistrat, a crowdsourced consultancy, and a former diplomat with the US Overseas Private Investment Corp. He is now based in Taipei.
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