According to a Nov. 30 report in the Liberty Times (sister paper of the Taipei Times), aircraft from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) last month set a new record for incursions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone.
Incursions occurred on 25 separate days in October, but last month, the PLA set a new record, entering the area on 26 days, with Taiwan’s air force issuing more than 55 radio warnings for PLA aircraft to leave.
Due to the PLA’s intensification of sea and air drills in the southwestern corner of Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, the Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands, 東沙島) are under severe threat from China’s military.
The Ministry of National Defense has responded by garrisoning the Marine Corps on the Pratas Islands, ostensibly to conduct off-shore training, but in reality to bolster its defenses.
Additionally, the ministry has this year invested NT$125.7 million (US$4.41 million) in the Dongsha Barracks New Construction Project.
Tender documentation for the project shows that construction is to comprise the installation or upgrades of water and electricity services, and the installation of electromechanical equipment.
The entire project was originally due for completion by Sept. 30 next year, but on Nov. 11 the Chinese-language United Daily News reported that work on the Pratas airport had been temporarily suspended.
This is very unfortunate.
The government intends to station an air force squadron at the Pratas Islands defensive garrison, in addition to a meteorological station, an outpost of the Marine National Park Headquarters, a Coast Guard Administration defense command post and a coast guard detachment.
The project is sponsored by the Air Force Headquarters and is likely the precursor to a follow-on project to install a radar station and mobile air-defense missiles.
The Pratas Islands are only about 400km from Kaohsiung. If a conflict breaks out, it would affect shipping routes that run through the Taiwan Strait and the Bashi Channel.
Freight and merchant shipping primarily enter the South China Sea from the Indian Ocean through the Strait of Malacca, so if there were a conflict, they would need to divert through the Java, Sulu or the Celebes seas en route to international shipping lanes in the western Pacific Ocean.
Any conflict regarding the Pratas would also be a huge blow to Japan and South Korea, whose export-led economies are heavily reliant on global trade.
Freedom of navigation by the navies of the US and European nations would also be muzzled, as the waters around the Pratas Islands form a key choke point.
If the PLA were to seize control of the islands, it would affect the ability and inclination of foreign warships to patrol the South China Sea.
In light of the tense and unpredictable situation in the South China Sea, prior to stepping down from office in 2016, then-Philippine president Benigno Aquino III invested US$1.3 billion into government programs to improve the Philippines’ ability to control the marine environment of the South China Sea and surrounding waters.
Aquino’s successor, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, has continued to support and fund those projects and has made protecting the country’s maritime economy his highest priority.
Whether from the perspective of defense, diplomacy or territorial sovereignty, the Pratas Islands are vital to Taiwan.
The military’s announcement last month that work has been suspended on construction work there might lead nations in the region to believe that Taipei has neither the will nor the resolve to protect the islands, which would not bode well for Taiwan.
Chang Feng-lin is a university lecturer.
Translated by Edward Jones
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) were born under the sign of Gemini. Geminis are known for their intelligence, creativity, adaptability and flexibility. It is unlikely, then, that the trade conflict between the US and China would escalate into a catastrophic collision. It is more probable that both sides would seek a way to de-escalate, paving the way for a Trump-Xi summit that allows the global economy some breathing room. Practically speaking, China and the US have vulnerabilities, and a prolonged trade war would be damaging for both. In the US, the electoral system means that public opinion
RSS