Young African farmers Mavis Gofa and Andrew Goodman had a vastly different upbringing — Gofa grew up on a one hectare farm and could not afford to finish high school, while Goodman’s family cultivated 275 hectares and educated him in Britain.
However, they share the same big dream.
Both want a better life for the families who run the world’s half a billion small farms, many of whom remain steeped in poverty despite producing about 80 percent of food consumed in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, according to the UN.
Illustration: Yusha
It is a tough ask as climate change makes life even harder for millions of small-scale farmers — with scientists predicting more frequent and intense floods, droughts and storms.
In Mutoko in northeast Zimbabwe, Gofa, 25, is seeing yields from her rain-fed maize dwindle, as the start of the planting season is delayed from mid-October to late December.
In 2016, her farm produced about 700kg of maize, but this year she only got 500 kg, she said.
Goodman, 24, is also struggling at his family farm outside Malawi’s capital, Lilongwe, which grows seeds for crops such as corn, soybeans and groundnuts, and works closely with about 5,000 small farmers every season.
The beginning of the rainy season has shifted from October to mid-November, older farmers told Goodman.
When showers do come, they often turn heavy, destroying crops and eroding the soil’s fertile layer, Goodman said, adding that this forces farmers to buy more inputs such as fertilizers to keep yields up, but the higher costs then push them back into poverty.
A recent study led by University College London (UCL) showed that such experiences could become widespread as the planet warms, with significant implications for hunger and inequality.
It looked at 18 crops — including those grown mainly in developing nations, such as cassava, groundnut and rapeseed — representing 70 percent of the world’s crop area and about 65 percent of its calorific intake.
The study found that harvests of key crops — such as pulses in West Africa, rice in India and Pakistan, and wheat in Sudan — would fall if temperatures rose 1°C above today’s levels, even without other effects such as floods.
Globally, the average temperature has so far risen a little more than 1°C since pre-industrial times, although the change varies in different parts of the world — and projections are for warming to increase further to 3°C or more this century.
Countries where increasing temperatures cause the most negative effects already have lower-than-average yields and are struggling to feed their citizens, denting their resilience and ability to adapt to additional heating, the study said.
Poor nations face a triple whammy with food production pummeled, higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide reducing nutrients in crops, and a resulting spike in hunger and malnutrition, said Paolo Agnolucci, the study’s lead author and an associate professor at UCL.
About 690 million people, or one in 11, went without enough to eat last year, and the UN has said that the COVID-19 pandemic could add another 132 million to that number this year.
The social implications of even 1°C of additional warming could be “massive,” Agnolucci added.
OLIVES CRUSHED
Some developed countries that enjoy high yields of crops such as potatoes, soy and corn — for example, in northern Europe — are likely to benefit if the climate heats up by another 1°C, the study said.
However, climate effects are getting harder to ignore even there, other scientists said.
Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, an associate professor at Cornell University researching the historical effects of climate change on agriculture, pointed to the unusual and brutal spring floods in the US Midwest last year that inundated huge swathes of farmland.
Meanwhile in Italy, where olive oil is part of the country’s cultural heritage, olive farmers like Gianni Proietti say that they have been battered by climate disasters.
Proietti’s 50 hectare farm in the picturesque Umbrian hills in central Italy has in the past few years suffered more frequent and severe plant diseases and extreme weather such as spring frosts and hailstorms.
Increases in average seasonal temperatures and humidity are to blame, said the 62-year-old, who now grows cereals, legumes and grapes, as well as olive trees.
Insuring his crops against weather damage helps him cope with the losses, but the most effective support would be measures to halt and reverse climate change, he said.
ABANDON SHIP?
With global climate action moving at a slow pace, many small farmers in Africa are diversifying crops, to adapt to worsening weather extremes and shifting climate patterns.
Gofa now concentrates on sorghum and millet, which are more drought-resistant than maize, and is receiving training from international charity ActionAid on eco-friendly farming techniques.
Still, she faces many difficulties.
For example, digging ridges in the soil so it holds more water is labor intensive, because she lacks equipment, she said.
For Goodman, obstacles include getting hold of affordable, quality seeds for soil-friendly crops such as legumes, and reliable information on weather, greener farming practices, crop performance and market prices.
He is working with aid organizations to address these issues, but said that the situation is “unfair” to poor farmers.
“How do you tell somebody to fight climate change, when they do not contribute to even a fraction of that climate change?” Goodman asked.
Millions of small farmers have “woefully low access” to mobile networks and the Internet, putting digital technologies that could help them out of reach, a study said last month.
Less than 40 percent of farms smaller than one hectare have 3G or 4G cellular services and the cost of data remains prohibitive in many parts of Africa, the International Center for Tropical Agriculture said.
The UCL-led study said that expansion of irrigation and increased use of fertilizers and pesticides could protect yields, but would come with environmental costs, from growing water scarcity to nitrous oxide emissions from fertilizers.
The only long-lasting solution is cooperation to help transfer technology from rich to poor countries, Agnolucci said.
Without this, the number of farmers quitting their land and migrating north could grow, he said.
Yet Ortiz-Bobea said that migration should be part of adaptation strategies.
At some point, it would likely become impossible to improve productivity on land where soils are poor and water is scarce, even with the latest technology, he said.
More radical ideas might be needed, he added.
“Maybe the best way to ensure food security is not necessarily for small-scale farmers to grow their own food, but being able to get an education and work in a sector where they can buy that food,” he said.
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