According to the latest information from Washington, the administration of US President Barack Obama has rejected Taiwan’s long-standing request to purchase submarines from the US.
In April 2001, then-US president George W. Bush’s administration promised to assist Taiwan in obtaining eight advanced diesel submarines. However, Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and People First Party legislators repeatedly blocked the defense procurement budgets of former president Chen Shui-bian’s (陳水扁) government using their majority in the legislature. Furthermore, given that Taiwan-US relations were drifting apart at the time, the US decided to take no action.
Washington’s latest decision has dealt a heavy blow to the administration of President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) push to forge ahead with a domestic submarine program. The Obama administration has decided to go back on the promise made by the Bush administration by not only refusing to sell a platform to Taiwan, but also by declining to provide technical drawings or assistance. Instead, as a sop to pro-Taiwan members of the US Congress and the Tsai administration, Obama has promised to assist Taiwan in upgrading the weapons and sonar systems on two of its Chien Lung-class conventional diesel-powered submarines, purchased from the Netherlands in the 1980s.
Aside from the navy’s two Dutch-manufactured submarines — the SS-793 Sea Dragon and SS-794 Sea Tiger — Taiwan also possesses two additional submarines: US-made Guppy-class, World War II-era vessels — the SS-791 Sea Lion and SS-792 Sea Leopard. The Guppy-class submarines are only used as training platforms for officers and cannot be used in a military conflict.
Washington’s promise is unrealistic, since it would take three to four years to upgrade each of the Chien Lung-class submarines, during which time Taiwan’s submarine capability would be cut in half.
At the end of last year, defense specialists from Washington-based think tanks held a conference to discuss the merits of Taiwan pursuing a domestic submarine program. There was general approval of the government’s policy of building an autonomous defense capability, while two important questions were raised.
First, producing submarines independently will require a vast amount of resources which would place a squeeze on other defense programs, as well as on the economy and domestic spending.
Second, it would take at least 10 years to take the submarines from the design phase to production, testing and commissioning, before they are ready for military deployment. With China’s army threatening Taiwan with an attack, the government does not have the luxury of having time on its side.
Although Israel is in possession of advanced defense technology, it has given up on domestic production, instead preferring to purchase decommissioned submarines from abroad to upgrade and improve their capabilities. To conserve military expenditure and deploy new submarines in a timely manner, Taiwan could draw lessons from Israel’s experience and try to obtain decommissioned submarines from either Japan or Italy. Since Taiwan-Japan relations are on a high, the government should do everything in its power to seize this golden opportunity.
It is by no means certain that the incoming US president would continue with the Obama administration’s Taiwan policy. There will therefore be a window of opportunity for the Tsai administration and Taiwan’s civic groups to capitalize on this change of administration and request that the US reviews its Taiwan policy.
In June and July, both houses of US Congress passed a concurrent resolution affirming the Taiwan Relations Act and the “six assurances” as cornerstones of Taiwan-US relations. On July 18, the US Republican Party’s National Convention approved the inclusion of the “six assurances” in its party program for the first time ever, while supporting the timely sale of defensive weapons to Taiwan, including the technology required to manufacture diesel-powered submarines.
To avoid offending Beijing, the Obama administration has offered Taiwan outdated weaponry, while allowing China to dictate the quality and quantity of weapons that it sells to Taiwan. In doing so, the Obama administration has not only failed to sufficiently implement the Taiwan Relations Act, but its actions also run contrary to the “six assurances.”
The Tsai administration must come up with a strategy to mobilize every corner of Taiwanese society — including the legislature, think tanks and civic groups — to launch a comprehensive, public diplomatic offensive aimed at the US government, Congress, media, think tanks and business groups.
In particular, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Taiwan’s representative office in the US must work hard to fulfill their diplomatic role. They should lobby US Congress to monitor and supervise the executive branch of the US government to ensure that it faithfully implements the terms of the Taiwan Relations Act and the “six assurances.”
Parris Chang, professor emeritus of political science at Penn State University and president of the Taiwan Institute for Political, Economic and Strategic Studies, served as a Democratic Progressive Party legislator and deputy secretary-general of the National Security Council.
Translated by Edward Jones
Why is Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) not a “happy camper” these days regarding Taiwan? Taiwanese have not become more “CCP friendly” in response to the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) use of spies and graft by the United Front Work Department, intimidation conducted by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the Armed Police/Coast Guard, and endless subversive political warfare measures, including cyber-attacks, economic coercion, and diplomatic isolation. The percentage of Taiwanese that prefer the status quo or prefer moving towards independence continues to rise — 76 percent as of December last year. According to National Chengchi University (NCCU) polling, the Taiwanese
It would be absurd to claim to see a silver lining behind every US President Donald Trump cloud. Those clouds are too many, too dark and too dangerous. All the same, viewed from a domestic political perspective, there is a clear emerging UK upside to Trump’s efforts at crashing the post-Cold War order. It might even get a boost from Thursday’s Washington visit by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. In July last year, when Starmer became prime minister, the Labour Party was rigidly on the defensive about Europe. Brexit was seen as an electorally unstable issue for a party whose priority
US President Donald Trump is systematically dismantling the network of multilateral institutions, organizations and agreements that have helped prevent a third world war for more than 70 years. Yet many governments are twisting themselves into knots trying to downplay his actions, insisting that things are not as they seem and that even if they are, confronting the menace in the White House simply is not an option. Disagreement must be carefully disguised to avoid provoking his wrath. For the British political establishment, the convenient excuse is the need to preserve the UK’s “special relationship” with the US. Following their White House
US President Donald Trump’s return to the White House has brought renewed scrutiny to the Taiwan-US semiconductor relationship with his claim that Taiwan “stole” the US chip business and threats of 100 percent tariffs on foreign-made processors. For Taiwanese and industry leaders, understanding those developments in their full context is crucial while maintaining a clear vision of Taiwan’s role in the global technology ecosystem. The assertion that Taiwan “stole” the US’ semiconductor industry fundamentally misunderstands the evolution of global technology manufacturing. Over the past four decades, Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, led by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), has grown through legitimate means
RSS