Far from signaling the end, a grim new consensus between Taipei and Washington must now spur a new beginning that ensures Taiwan’s survival. Military leaders in Taipei and Washington now agree there is a growing chance that by the middle of this decade the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership may decide to use its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to attack, or even invade, Taiwan. On October 6, 2021, Taiwan Minister for National Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng (邱國正) told members of Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan, “By 2025, China will bring the cost and attrition to its lowest. It has the capacity now, but it will not start a war easily, having to take many other things into consideration.” Earlier, on March 9, United States Indo-Pacific Command Commander Admiral Philip Davidson told US Senators, “Taiwan is clearly one of their ambitions… And I think the threat is manifest during this decade, in fact in the next six years.” However, there is still time for Taiwan and the US to take steps to accelerate a buildup of military capabilities to deter such an attack, and by so doing create the basis for Taiwan’s survival. These steps could include: ACCELERATE US WEAPONS DELIVERIES Recent reports from Taiwan indicate some new interest in advancing to 2022 the first deliveries of 66 new F-16V 4+ generation fighters sold to Taiwan in 2020, meaning they could all be delivered before the reported goal of 2026. This will boost to about 200 Taiwan’s F-16s with 4+ generation combat capabilities, like the ability to simultaneously target more than 4 aircraft while carrying up to 10 air-to-air missiles, severely challenging PLA attempts to achieve air superiority necessary for an invasion. Similar urgency must also advance the delivery of the 2020 US sale to Taiwan of nearly 600 missiles, including 64 of the 300-kilometer-range MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range
As the Latin name of Taiwan’s premier academic institution, Academia Sinica, translates into “Chinese Academy,” some of its members are calling for a name change to avoid confusion, but media reports have said that all those being considered are English-language names. While serving at the academy, my affiliation was always listed at the end of every research paper as “Institute of Mathematics, Academia Sinica.” The first half of the author affiliation was in English and the second half in Latin, a mix that really is neither fish nor fowl. As not many of those in the academy’s institutes can translate the names of their institutes into Latin, it seems more convenient to translate the name of the academy into English. Why was the academy’s name translated into Latin when it was established in 1928? The main reason was that Latin was the language of academia until the middle of the 19th century. Great mathematicians, such as Carl Gauss and Georg Riemann, all wrote their papers in Latin. Next, German became the dominant language in math, until World War II when its dominance was usurped by English — which shows that whichever language academia considers to be the international language is changeable. Another reason the academy’s name was translated into Latin is that Latin was the common language of the ancient world. Still, the status of international languages changes over time. French, which was the lingua franca until World War II, has been replaced by English — although French is still the language used for international exchanges on postal affairs. Today, English is the world’s common language. The UK used to be the “empire on which the sun never sets,” and the US has been a superpower since World War II. As the two nations have English in common, English has become today’s lingua franca, not without implying a certain
Taiwan, China differ I refer to “Tsai says ‘ROC Taiwan’ is essential” (Aug. 20, page 1) in saying that I support President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文). What I want to say is this: If everyone, including the people of Taiwan, continually referred to Taiwan as “Taiwan” and “formerly Formosa,” the world might begin to accept and understand the difference between Taiwan and China. If everyone, including the people of Taiwan, continually let the world know that Taiwan is different from China, the world might begin to accept and understand the difference. If everyone, including the people of Taiwan, continually educated others that Taiwan’s written and spoken language(s) are different from those in China, the world might begin to accept and understand the difference. Next plan: China Airlines must change its name to Formosa Airlines or Taiwan Airlines, because it is a global billboard. Taiwan, build your own Taiwanese brand. Taiwan, are you aware that China Airlines uses the same registration number for its aircraft as airlines in China? Why is this? The people of Taiwan, especially the better informed, must take these issues to the government. The people of Taiwan, especially the better informed, must educate those who are less aware of these issues and help them understand that a life under China would be worse, and a life of greater hunger. Robert Cassidy Tasmania, Australia News briefings Chang Yueh-han (張約翰) makes a very good point in his opinion article “Ko Wen-je is misusing news briefings” (Taipei Times, Oct. 22, page 8). Sadly, the situation is not unusual. We witness it virtually every day here in the US when a political figure finds themselves in front of the media — and the media representatives themselves contribute to the mess. As a public relations professional whose job it was to prepare senior executives for such events, I am as guilty as anyone else for providing them
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Damien Sardjoe was 14 when the Amsterdam police put him on the city’s Top 600 criminals list, which sets people thought to be at risk of committing “high-impact crimes” such as robbery, assault and murder on a regime of care and punishment. That was when his life began to fall apart. Sardjoe had previously been arrested for two street robberies — one of which was violent. His inclusion on the list meant police would raid his home whenever a crime happened in his area, while officers routinely stopped him on the street asking for identification, he said. “I felt very spied on,” said Sardjoe, now a 20-year-old youth worker. “I didn’t feel comfortable walking on the street.” Sardjoe’s older brother was placed on another automated list — the Top 400 children at risk of criminal behavior — before he had ever committed a crime, and then went on to become involved in stealing scooters, he added. The “top criminal” tag felt “almost like a self-fulfilling prophecy,” Sardjoe said. Amid warnings from rights groups that artificial intelligence (AI) technologies reinforce prejudice in policing, the debate over systems such as the Top 600 list kicked up a notch this month, when members of the European Parliament voted for a report proposing strict regulation of predictive policing. Officials said the nonbinding report, which also calls for outlawing the use of mass biometric surveillance, should become the European Parliament’s position for coming negotiations on a new AI law. “We want to make sure certain types of AI, like facial recognition or predictive policing, cannot be used easily because they affect fundamental human rights,” said Bulgarian member Petar Vitanov, who wrote the report. The use of automated risk modeling and profiling systems to predict future criminal activity has already been banned in cities such as Santa Cruz, California, and New Orleans, Louisiana, amid accusations
After Venice in November 2019 experienced the second-worst flood in its history, it was inundated with four more exceptional tides within six weeks, shocking Venetians and triggering fears about the worsening effects of climate change. The repeated invasion of brackish lagoon water into St Mark’s Basilica this summer is a quiet reminder that the threat has not receded. “I can only say that in August, a month when this never used to happen, we had tides over a meter five times. I am talking about the month of August, when we are quiet,” said St Mark’s chief caretaker, Carlo Alberto Tesserin. Venice’s unique topography, built on log piles among canals, has made it particularly vulnerable to climate change. Rising sea levels are increasing the frequency of high tides that inundate the 1,600-year-old Italian lagoon city, which is also gradually sinking. It is the fate of coastal cities such as Venice that will be on the minds of climate scientists and global leaders meeting in Glasgow, Scotland, at a UN climate conference that begins on Sunday next week. Venice’s worse-case scenario for sea level rise by the end of the century is a startling 120cm, according to a new study published by the European Geosciences Union. That is 50 percent higher than the worse-case global sea-rise average of 80cm forecast by a UN science panel. The city’s interplay of canals and architecture, of natural habitat and human ingenuity, also has earned it recognition as a UNESCO World Heritage site for its outstanding universal value, a designation put at risk because of the effect of over-tourism and cruise ship traffic. It escaped the endangered list after Italy banned cruise ships from passing through St Mark’s Basin, but alarm bells are still ringing. Sitting at Venice’s lowest spot, St Mark’s Basilica offers a unique position to monitor the effects of
The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) must be careful that its drive to implement transitional justice is not used as a political weapon in power struggles, otherwise history might repeat itself. With DPP Legislator Huang Kuo-shu (黃國書) on Sunday saying that he had been an informant for intelligence agencies during the Martial Law era, discussion has shifted away from holding the then-Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) regime accountable to what can be described as a “cleansing” movement within the DPP. An exclusive report by the Chinese-language Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister newspaper) on Saturday last week said that Huang a few months earlier had been expelled by the New Tide faction of the DPP after his activities as a student were discovered. DPP members immediately pointed to the then-KMT government’s actions during the White Terror era, saying that many people were coerced or enticed by the regime to spy on dissidents. However, speculation arose that the disclosure of Huang’s snitching might have been a plot among fellow DPP members who did not want him to contest next year’s Taichung mayoral election. Questions remain over the timing of the revelations about Huang. The Transitional Justice Commission has said that the Ministry of Justice’s Investigation Bureau in the 1980s had a network of more than 30,000 informants. “There must be more” might be the phrase that best describes the mood in the DPP. Over the past week, party members have started to look at one another with suspicion. Former DPP chairman Shih Ming-te (施明德) has jumped into the debate, saying that Chiang Peng-chien (江鵬堅), the party’s first chairman, who passed away in 2000, and lawyers who helped defendants after the 1979 Kaohsiung Incident were also informants. Premier Su Tseng-chang (蘇貞昌) and Representative to Japan Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) were among the lawyers, although they were not directly accused. The furor over Huang’s past
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator Huang Kuo-shu (黃國書) admitted he had been an informant for the former Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) authoritarian regime when he was a student and has announced that he is to resign from the DPP. This decision should be affirmed, but hopefully he can also tell the whole truth to show his determination to distance himself from his past. He could use the opportunity to promote the implementation of transitional justice. Taiwan’s democratization was a quiet revolution rather than a stormy event. This reduced the bloodshed, but it also slowed the process of transitional justice. The old state apparatus has not been shattered and the changing ideals have failed to have an impact on many people who lack understanding of transitional justice. Huang should provide further explanation so a change in ideals is not a sudden event. I have changed from being a supporter of a “greater China” ideal to supporting Taiwanese independence, but it took 20 years. My support went via the position that there are “two Chinas,” so there has been a constant back-and-forth of ideas. For these reasons, I always wonder if Chinese who suddenly and fervently begin to support Taiwanese independence really do support it, or if they are simply opportunists trying to score political points. Distancing oneself from an informant background might not be that complicated, but there is definitely a struggle. If Huang would speak out, perhaps he could teach us something. An informant is not a spy, but a quasi-spy, as they only conduct surveillance and provide information, while a spy has other, destructive tasks, including inciting counterinsurgencies. That there are victims, but no perpetrators, in Taiwan’s version of transitional justice has always been the crux of the problem, and it concerns the purpose of transitional justice. Some people think that the purpose of transitional justice is
China on Sept. 20 slapped Taiwan with a politically motivated NT$4 billion (US$143.36 million) annual fine with its ban on imports of sugar apples and wax apples from the nation, following Beijing’s pineapple ban in March, which combined will cost Taiwan that much every year in lost exports. What is more upsetting is that China is targeting Taiwan’s most vulnerable regions. Taitung County, a beautiful but poor stretch of land on the east coast, grows nearly all of the nation’s sugar apples. Every year, Taitung exports about 95 percent of Taiwan’s sugar apples. Nearly all of these go to China. Hopefully, the ban ends before Lunar New Year next year, when most sugar apple exporting occurs. If the ban stays in place, Taitung would lose a vital source of income in a county that is already struggling to find jobs for young people. China’s import ban on agricultural products, especially ones that spoil quickly, is intentionally painful. If China were to ban semiconductor imports, Taiwan would just shrug, because the rest of the world is hungry for chips. On the other hand, Taiwan must address the lost income from China’s fruit ban. When sugar apples rot under the sun, farmers do not eat. This vulnerability gives China leverage and makes military aircraft in Taiwan’s air defense identification zone seem even louder. Creating an international appetite for sugar apples can dampen the effects of Chinese economic coercion. On Monday, Taitung took a small but significant step toward extracting itself from China’s sphere of influence. Members of the Taitung County Government and the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association Kaohsiung Office discussed the future of sugar apple exports. It is going to be a challenge weaning exporters off selling to the low-hanging fruit that is China. It is the ideal market in many ways, with many affluent people who like sugar apples. Moreover,
This year is undoubtedly all about climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published the Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; the Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded to two climate change research pioneers for their prophetic insights and early warnings of global warming over the decades; and an agreement of net zero emissions by 2050 might soon be reached at the UN Climate Change Conference, COP26, in Glasgow, Scotland, next month. In Taiwan, President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) once again expressed determination to pursue net zero emissions in her Double Ten National Day speech; the Environmental Protection Administration’s draft bill on the response to climate change is expected to include the net-zero emission target; and legislators from the ruling and opposition parties have proposed a draft climate change action law. While the world is striving toward net zero emissions by 2050, the IPCC report says that no matter how rapid or deeply emission reductions are achieved, global warming of 1.5°C is in progress and will happen in 20 years. If net zero emissions cannot be achieved by 2050, warming is likely to reach 2.5°C. In other words, the impact of a warming world is unavoidable. In addition to rapid and deep emission reductions, concrete adjustments are required to minimize the effects of climate change. There is worldwide agreement that there is a climate emergency. Countries are investing vast resources in climate change-related research and development (R&D) systems, including science, impact, adjustment and mitigation, promoting R&D plans across scientific disciplines, establishing dedicated research institutions to estimate the impact of global warming on local environments, and drafting the best adjustment strategies based on results — all in an effort to minimize the effects of the expanding damage on future generations. In Taiwan, more than 20 years
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A dictator’s son, an actor-turned-mayor and a champion boxer: An eclectic mix of personalities has declared that they would compete to become the Philippines’ next president. More than 60 million Filipinos are eligible to go to the polls to decide who should replace President Rodrigo Duterte, who is nearing the end of his six-year term limit. “Some call it a circus, I actually call it a fiesta,” Ateneo de Manila University School of Government dean Tony La Vina said. “It’s going to be very interesting, with lots of twists and turns.” The election in May next year comes at a crucial time for the Philippines, which has faced one of the worst COVID-19 outbreaks in Southeast Asia and has distributed enough vaccine doses to fully protect less than one-quarter of the population. The prolonged outbreak and punishing lockdown restrictions have battered the economy. For Duterte, too, the stakes are especially high. Last month, the International Criminal Court (ICC) announced that it was investigating his so-called “war on drugs,” in which as many as 30,000 people are estimated to have been killed. A sympathetic successor could adopt his stance of not cooperating with the court. According to polling by Pulse Asia, his daughter, Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte, is the frontrunner for the top job. Yet she has denied that she would join the race and has missed the deadline to file a candidacy — unless she chooses to become a last-minute substitute, as her father did in 2016. It is expected to be a tight race. Almost neck-and-neck for second place are former Philippine senator Ferdinand Marcos Jr, namesake and son of the late dictator; Manila City Mayor Isko Moreno, a former actor; and boxing champion and Philippine Senator Manny Pacquiao. Behind them are Philippine Vice President Leni Robredo, an outspoken critic of Rodrigo Duterte, and
The combined effects of COVID-19 and climate change have revealed profound vulnerabilities in Southeast Asia. In ASEAN member states, the COVID-19 pandemic turned hospitals into mortuaries at the same time as natural disasters transformed coastal communities into washed-out mud flats. To improve regional resilience and promote sustainable growth, the post-COVID-19 recovery must focus not only on decarbonization, but also on the protection of nature. Throughout the region, nature remains in a policy silo, and the importance of biodiversity, in particular, rarely features prominently in economic development plans. Biodiversity provides food, water, shelter and medicine. It contributes to social cohesion and climate stabilization, and can help humanity adapt to a changing environment. And yet the ASEAN Comprehensive Recovery Framework mentions biodiversity only once — in a footnote. Unless this approach changes, ASEAN member states risk sinking billions of development dollars into measures that fail to address a root cause of the problems. To lead our region toward recovery, resilience, and long-term sustainable development, ASEAN member states should commit to the “30x30” plan to protect nature. This initiative, which aims to conserve 30 percent of Earth’s lands and oceans by 2030, is a key element of the proposed global biodiversity framework, due to be finalized by 196 countries later this year, and is championed by the High Ambition Coalition of Nature and People. More than 70 countries have signed on to the coalition, but Cambodia is the only ASEAN member state among them. Southeast Asia comprises just 3 percent of Earth’s land mass, but it contains almost 20 percent of the world’s biodiversity. More than 2,000 species have been discovered in the ASEAN region over the past 20 years, and three member states — Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines — are considered “megadiverse” countries, with a variety of species akin to that
A Taiwanese YouTuber was arrested on Sunday on suspicion of producing “deepfake” pornographic videos using likenesses of politicians and Internet celebrities. The arrest of Chu Yu-chen (朱玉宸), 26, and two others suspected of producing and selling the videos prompted politicians on Monday to propose legislation that would make such activity illegal. Lawmakers should exercise caution in proposing such a law, which would put arbitrary restrictions on free expression, particularly when existing laws are sufficient to deal with cases like Chu’s. For example, it is illegal to produce and distribute pornographic material in Taiwan, and it is also illegal to publicly defame someone — which some might say some deepfakes would be. Moreover, there are copyright laws that make it illegal to create deepfake videos from existing content. There have also been cases of such videos being used to spread disinformation, such as one that circulated in 2019 depicting Facebook chief executive officer Mark Zuckerberg saying that he had “total control of billions of people’s stolen data.” Taiwan has grappled with Chinese disinformation campaigns, which deepfakes might exacerbate, but the nation already has laws prohibiting the production and dissemination of false news reports. A blanket prohibition on such videos would be counterproductive and ineffective. Those who produce illegal content using artificial intelligence and deepfake technology would be just as willing to use other means if such tools were banned. Banning them would simply mean that those who use deepfakes for legitimate content would face restrictions. This would set a dangerous precedent and would likely prompt questions over what other forms of expression should be outlawed. For example, newspapers in most countries publish political satire in the form of cartoons, often depicting politicians or celebrities in unflattering contexts. Such cartoons are typically protected by free speech and freedom of the press rules. If legislators were to say that a
Taiwan Culture Day, celebrated every Oct. 17, commemorates democracy pioneer Chiang Wei-shui (蔣渭水), who with Lin Hsien-tang (林獻堂) established the Taiwanese Culture Association on Oct. 17, 1921, setting in motion national movements and cultural enlightenment. Among the many activities that were organized to commemorate the centennial, a lot of attention was paid to the cultural progress of the past 100 years and how far the nation has traveled to fulfill the spirit of “Taiwan for Taiwanese” and “Taiwan for the world,” slogans that the association used in their advocacy. The association’s establishment was a product of its times. Taiwan went through modernization during the Japanese colonial era, as the authorities conducted basic surveys, promoted universal education, improved public health, built infrastructure, and reformed customs and practices. During this time, the influence of Taisho Japan — the reign of Emperor Taisho from 1912 to 1926 — made its way to Taiwan. After World War I, then-US president Woodrow Wilson advocated national self-determination, which triggered national movements in many places around the world. Taiwan, a Japanese colony at the time, was led by educated men and women who forged modern Taiwan through cultural, political and social efforts. Part of these efforts was the association’s goal to create “a self-help enlightenment movement for the social liberation and cultural advancement of Taiwanese,” as Japanese academic Tadao Yanaihara, known as the “conscience of Japan,” described it. The association also inspired farmers’ and youth movements, and its members traveled to Tokyo to petition for the establishment of a local Taiwanese parliament, an event that led to 1923’s fierce crackdown under the Peace Order and Police Act of the time. Chiang and others were imprisoned upon their return to Taiwan from Tokyo. The association later split due to divisions between left and right-leaning factions. Regardless, the association’s main influence was the cultural reform
Ever since former Kaohsiung mayor Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) was recalled last year, “Han fans,” as well as the KMT hierarchy, have made pro-Taiwan lawmakers their enemy No. 1, and Taiwan Statebuilding Party Legislator Chen Po-wei (陳柏惟) has been on top of that list (“Recall part of ‘generational war’: expert,” Oct. 19, page 3). Chen has always been one of Han’s harshest critics, and Han fans have vowed revenge. Former legislators Yen Kuan-hen (顏寬恆) and Yen Ching-piao (顏清標), being such sore losers, were not amused about losing to Chen democratically and have amassed significant resources backed by the KMT and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to remove him — a display of bad sportsmanship. Yang Wen-yuan (楊文元) — who voted for Chen in January last year, but said he regrets doing so — initiated the recall campaign. Yang said that Chen has neglected his constituency, behaved outrageously in the legislature and on social media, and supported the government’s decision to lift a ban on the importation of pork containing residue of the feed additive ractopamine. The carpet-bombing smear campaign against Chen by KMT/CCP-leaning media is beyond fair and reasonable reporting. Many pro-Chen voices have been silenced by social media bans as they fight back against those who spread untruths. If the KMT gets its way, it will inflict further unrest by stalling the legislature at the expense of taxpayers. This type of disruption has already been recognized internationally, not least by former US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice. The recall attempt is also an issue of national security, as Chen is a member of the legislature’s Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee. If he is recalled, the committee would be open to a possible KMT majority, which could then stall defense funding, diplomatic relationships, and lead to state secrets and sensitive military
Education long game Regarding the editorial about Harvard’s decision to relocate its summer language program from Beijing to Taipei (“Learning thrives where it is free,” Oct. 16, page 8), it is hard to overestimate the potential long-term positive impact actions like that will have on US-Taiwan relations. It is imperative that the government finds ways to convince more US universities to follow suit. One only has to look at the history of the old Sanford Center, a consortium of a half-dozen leading US universities with significant Chinese studies and language programs that operated at National Taiwan University between 1963 and 1997. Dozens of students from those schools spent a year in intensive advanced Chinese-language study at “Tai Da,” spending four hours a day in classes and the other hours studying, exploring the city and otherwise being exposed to the country and the people — and in most cases getting to love both. Significantly, many of those students after graduation became government policymakers, academics, journalists and other professionals who were often instrumental in forming and maintaining US policy toward China and Taiwan. It is hard to think of any of them who became detractors of Taiwan or doubters of Taiwan’s right to exist as an independent entity. That in the face of the fact that many, if not most, held jaundiced views of Chiang Kai-shek (蔣介石) and the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) era of martial law terror. While there were other language training centers in Taipei after Stanford left, it was the most prestigious and important. It is hard to know just how the Stanford Center’s move to Beijing affected US policy toward Taiwan, but it could not have been positive. However, with the chilling of US-China relations, the increasing authoritarianism of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) regime in Beijing, and the Chinese Communist Party’s crushing of freedom in Hong
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Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) took a big gamble shaking up key industries ahead of a political gathering that could decide whether he rules the country indefinitely. Now he is starting to hit the brakes. In the past few weeks Chinese authorities have moved to soften sweeping policies designed to make the economy less dependent on debt, monopolies and fossil fuels. While Beijing’s edicts chastened China’s corporate elites, they also began showing signs of hitting ordinary citizens with higher power bills, lost savings and — if the economy continues to struggle — potentially fewer jobs. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (李克強) expressed caution a week ago, saying that China needed to rethink the pace of the country’s energy transition as a power crisis threatened to keep factories in the dark and homes without heat during the winter. By Friday last week the People’s Bank of China finally spoke on the debt crisis at China Evergrande Group, saying that the risks were “controllable” and lenders should keep credit to the real-estate sector “stable and orderly.” That came shortly after Bloomberg reported that financial regulators told some major banks to accelerate approval of mortgages in the last quarter. “China is confronting now a confluence of rising structural economic headwinds,” said George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre. “Stability and order will be craved above all things, but within the context of a very defined political agenda. The [Chinese Communist] Party [CCP] cannot afford to have anything like Evergrande or inflation go off the rails.” The pullback shows the difficult balancing act Xi faces in overhauling the world’s second-biggest economy in a way that does not cause too much pain for the nation’s 1.4 billion people, about 40 percent of whom earn just 1,000 yuan (US$155) per month on average. Xi’s push for “common prosperity” has underpinned a slew
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