Singapore-based DBS Bank yesterday raised its forecast for Taiwan’s consumer price index to 2.2 percent for this year from the 1.7 percent increase it predicted previously, as the nation’s economy continues to rebound while inflation risks mount.
“There is a shift in risk balance from growth to inflation, prompting considerations for policy tightening,” DBS Bank senior economist Ma Tieying (馬鐵英) told an online news conference.
Inflation is expected to remain elevated this quarter, with services inflation likely to be the prime driver, reflecting electricity price hikes and the pass-through effect from them, Ma said.
Photo: CNA
The central bank last month unexpectedly raised its policy rate by 0.125 percentage points in a bid to curb expected inflation following an 11 percent increase in electricity rates this month.
The across-the-board electricity rate adjustments are expected to drive inflation up by 0.27 percentage points this year, including a direct impact of 0.09 percentage points and an indirect impact of 0.18 percentage points, the central bank has said.
However, the hikes would not reverse Taiwan Power Co’s (台電) loss-making status, meaning more rate increases might be necessary later this year, Ma said.
“Electricity price reforms remain plausible over the long term, considering Taiwan’s imperative shift toward [more expensive] green energy, alongside challenges posed by climate change and energy security,” she said.
DBS Bank also trimmed its GDP growth forecast for Taiwan this quarter to 4.2 percent from 4.3 percent to reflect the economic effects of a massive earthquake that struck the east coast on Wednesday last week.
Thankfully, the quake’s epicenter was more than 100km from key manufacturing centers such as Hsinchu, Taichung and Tainan, while the inventory ratio in Taiwan’s semiconductor and overall manufacturing sector has remained above the historical par of 1.0, suggesting that companies have sufficient inventories to cope with the minor disruptions, Ma said.
DBS stood by its prediction of a moderate recovery in exports this quarter, when a cyclical upturn in the global semiconductor sector would lend support to Taiwan’s exports, she said.
As US technology giants ramp up artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure to accommodate booming computational demand, there would be a surge in the need for high-performance logic chips, high-capacity servers, storage and memory chips, for which Taiwanese firms are the world’s leading contract makers, Ma said.
In addition, the emergence of conversational AI products could accelerate the replacement cycles for PCs, smartphones and other devices, she said, adding that local firms are also major suppliers of electronics used in such gadgets.
DBS retained its GDP growth forecast for Taiwan this year at 3.5 percent.
MULTIFACETED: A task force has analyzed possible scenarios and created responses to assist domestic industries in dealing with US tariffs, the economics minister said The Executive Yuan is tomorrow to announce countermeasures to US President Donald Trump’s planned reciprocal tariffs, although the details of the plan would not be made public until Monday next week, Minister of Economic Affairs J.W. Kuo (郭智輝) said yesterday. The Cabinet established an economic and trade task force in November last year to deal with US trade and tariff related issues, Kuo told reporters outside the legislature in Taipei. The task force has been analyzing and evaluating all kinds of scenarios to identify suitable responses and determine how best to assist domestic industries in managing the effects of Trump’s tariffs, he
TIGHT-LIPPED: UMC said it had no merger plans at the moment, after Nikkei Asia reported that the firm and GlobalFoundries were considering restarting merger talks United Microelectronics Corp (UMC, 聯電), the world’s No. 4 contract chipmaker, yesterday launched a new US$5 billion 12-inch chip factory in Singapore as part of its latest effort to diversify its manufacturing footprint amid growing geopolitical risks. The new factory, adjacent to UMC’s existing Singapore fab in the Pasir Res Wafer Fab Park, is scheduled to enter volume production next year, utilizing mature 22-nanometer and 28-nanometer process technologies, UMC said in a statement. The company plans to invest US$5 billion during the first phase of the new fab, which would have an installed capacity of 30,000 12-inch wafers per month, it said. The
Taiwan’s official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) last month rose 0.2 percentage points to 54.2, in a second consecutive month of expansion, thanks to front-loading demand intended to avoid potential US tariff hikes, the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中華經濟研究院) said yesterday. While short-term demand appeared robust, uncertainties rose due to US President Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade policy, CIER president Lien Hsien-ming (連賢明) told a news conference in Taipei. Taiwan’s economy this year would be characterized by high-level fluctuations and the volatility would be wilder than most expect, Lien said Demand for electronics, particularly semiconductors, continues to benefit from US technology giants’ effort
‘SWASTICAR’: Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s close association with Donald Trump has prompted opponents to brand him a ‘Nazi’ and resulted in a dramatic drop in sales Demonstrators descended on Tesla Inc dealerships across the US, and in Europe and Canada on Saturday to protest company chief Elon Musk, who has amassed extraordinary power as a top adviser to US President Donald Trump. Waving signs with messages such as “Musk is stealing our money” and “Reclaim our country,” the protests largely took place peacefully following fiery episodes of vandalism on Tesla vehicles, dealerships and other facilities in recent weeks that US officials have denounced as terrorism. Hundreds rallied on Saturday outside the Tesla dealership in Manhattan. Some blasted Musk, the world’s richest man, while others demanded the shuttering of his