Cathay Financial Holding Co (國泰金控) yesterday raised its forecast for Taiwan’s economic growth this year from 2.8 percent to 3 percent, saying that robust demand for artificial intelligence (AI) products would help exports come out of the woods.
The projection is lower than the 3.43 percent increase that the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) predicted last month, as the research team is less optimistic about private investment and consumer spending.
“Upcoming electricity rate hikes would weigh on private consumption and corporate margins,” National Central University economics professor Hsu Chih-chiang (徐之強) said on behalf of the panel.
Photo: Wu Hsin-tien, Taipei Times
Policymakers and experts are due to review electricity rates this month. Government officials have indicated that rate increases across the board are necessary to reflect rising costs and to keep debt-ridden Taiwan Power Co (台電) afloat.
The electricity rate hikes, which are to go into effect next month, would also negatively affect corporate earnings, as industrial and commercial users face steeper adjustments, Hsu said.
As the DGBAS has said that every 10 percent increase in electricity rates would push up inflation by 0.2 percentage points, the Cathay Financial team expects consumer prices to rise 1.9 percent this year, higher than its previous forecast, he said.
Private consumption, the main growth driver last year, would take a backseat this year due to lingering inflationary pressures, weakening “revenge spending” and a high comparison base last year, he said.
Meanwhile, companies are still conservative about capital expenditure, with private investment likely to remain in contraction territory this quarter, as evidenced by poor imports of capital equipment, especially for semiconductors, he said.
Exports would again become a key growth driver, aided by strong global demand for AI equipment and applications, he said.
Taiwan is home to the world’s largest suppliers of high-end chips and servers.
Against that backdrop, the central bank is likely to hold interest rates steady next week and the entire year in a bid to tame inflation and support the economy, Hsu said.
The neutral policy stance would continue even if the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates in the second half of this year to avoid an economic hard landing in the US, Hsu said.
Taiwan’s central bank has maintained its discount rate at 1.875 percent since March last year.
That rate is quite low, compared with the Fed’s 5.25 to 5.5 percent rate, rendering rate cuts unnecessary for Taiwan’s central bank, he said.
MULTIFACETED: A task force has analyzed possible scenarios and created responses to assist domestic industries in dealing with US tariffs, the economics minister said The Executive Yuan is tomorrow to announce countermeasures to US President Donald Trump’s planned reciprocal tariffs, although the details of the plan would not be made public until Monday next week, Minister of Economic Affairs J.W. Kuo (郭智輝) said yesterday. The Cabinet established an economic and trade task force in November last year to deal with US trade and tariff related issues, Kuo told reporters outside the legislature in Taipei. The task force has been analyzing and evaluating all kinds of scenarios to identify suitable responses and determine how best to assist domestic industries in managing the effects of Trump’s tariffs, he
TIGHT-LIPPED: UMC said it had no merger plans at the moment, after Nikkei Asia reported that the firm and GlobalFoundries were considering restarting merger talks United Microelectronics Corp (UMC, 聯電), the world’s No. 4 contract chipmaker, yesterday launched a new US$5 billion 12-inch chip factory in Singapore as part of its latest effort to diversify its manufacturing footprint amid growing geopolitical risks. The new factory, adjacent to UMC’s existing Singapore fab in the Pasir Res Wafer Fab Park, is scheduled to enter volume production next year, utilizing mature 22-nanometer and 28-nanometer process technologies, UMC said in a statement. The company plans to invest US$5 billion during the first phase of the new fab, which would have an installed capacity of 30,000 12-inch wafers per month, it said. The
Taiwan’s official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) last month rose 0.2 percentage points to 54.2, in a second consecutive month of expansion, thanks to front-loading demand intended to avoid potential US tariff hikes, the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中華經濟研究院) said yesterday. While short-term demand appeared robust, uncertainties rose due to US President Donald Trump’s unpredictable trade policy, CIER president Lien Hsien-ming (連賢明) told a news conference in Taipei. Taiwan’s economy this year would be characterized by high-level fluctuations and the volatility would be wilder than most expect, Lien said Demand for electronics, particularly semiconductors, continues to benefit from US technology giants’ effort
‘SWASTICAR’: Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s close association with Donald Trump has prompted opponents to brand him a ‘Nazi’ and resulted in a dramatic drop in sales Demonstrators descended on Tesla Inc dealerships across the US, and in Europe and Canada on Saturday to protest company chief Elon Musk, who has amassed extraordinary power as a top adviser to US President Donald Trump. Waving signs with messages such as “Musk is stealing our money” and “Reclaim our country,” the protests largely took place peacefully following fiery episodes of vandalism on Tesla vehicles, dealerships and other facilities in recent weeks that US officials have denounced as terrorism. Hundreds rallied on Saturday outside the Tesla dealership in Manhattan. Some blasted Musk, the world’s richest man, while others demanded the shuttering of his