Taiwan’s economy is forecast to expand 3.1 percent this year, following a sluggish 1.41 percent uptick last year, as private investment and exports would come out of the woods while private consumption remains healthy, the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中華經濟研究院) said yesterday.
The GDP forecast suggests an upward revision of 0.09 percentage points from three months earlier, as major tech firms delivered stronger-than-expected earnings results and are upbeat about prospects this year.
“The nation’s economy could see a more balanced recovery in terms of external and domestic demand,” from last year when the services sector single-handedly upheld GDP growth, CIER president Yeh Chun-hsien (葉俊顯) told a news conference in Taipei.
Photo: Hsu Tzu-ling, Taipei Times
Capital formation and private investment could rise 3.12 percent and 1.34 percent respectively this year, from last year’s declines of 6.44 percent and 8.41 percent, Yeh said.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) is expected to keep its coming 1-nanometer process technology in Taiwan and the investment could exceed NT$1 trillion (US$31.9 billion), Yeh said, adding that the move would benefit local firms in its supply chain, which would be an encouraging development for capital and private investment.
The world’s sole supplier of chips used in Apple Inc’s iPhone series last week told investors it is eying a 25 percent pickup in revenue this year, which is brighter than market expectations.
Exports, about 65 percent of GDP in Taiwan, could bounce 7.65 percent, while imports could grow 5.66 percent in contrast to last year’s retreat of 9.79 percent and 17.79 percent, Yeh said.
National Development Council Deputy Minister Kao Shien-quey (高仙桂) said the improvement would come as international trade would regain some momentum and inventory corrections for technology products approach an end.
The twists would allow export-oriented economies such as Taiwan, South Korea and ASEAN members to put up better economic showings than last year, Kao said.
The government is to lend support by assisting companies in seeking digital transformation and transition to net zero, she said.
In the meantime, private consumption could register a 2.08 percent increase, slowing from an 8.38 percent advance, as demand for retail sales, tourism and lodging services remains resilient, CIER said.
Consumer prices could return to the central bank’s 2 percent target by growing a mild 1.88 percent, moderating from a 2.5 percent gain last year, it said.
The unemployment rate is likely to average 3.44 percent this year, about the same as 3.48 percent last year, it said.
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