Public confidence in the nation’s economic prospects this month improved at a much stronger pace compared with last month, a survey conducted by Cathay Financial Holding Co (國泰金控) showed yesterday.
The economic optimism index for economic conditions stood at 4.7 this month, the survey showed, a more optimistic assessment than the minus-3 last month.
In addition, the economic optimism index over the next six months rose to 9.8 this month, up from 3.6 a month earlier, it found.
Photo: Ritchie B. Tongo, EPA-EFE
Such optimism was also reflected in the indices gauging people’s willingness to purchase big-ticket items and durable goods, which rose to 12.2 and minus-8.7 this month respectively, from 8.9 and minus-12.7 last month, Cathay Financial said.
Overall, people had an average GDP growth estimate of 2.61 percent for this year, with 42 percent of respondents expecting the economy to expand more than 3 percent, the survey showed.
That was better than last month’s survey when people had an average growth estimate of 2.52 percent for this year, with 37.7 percent of them expecting growth higher than 3 percent.
However, respondents appeared relatively conservative about economic growth compared with the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS), which in November last year predicted a GDP growth of 3.35 percent for this year.
The public was also more concerned about inflation than the DGBAS, as people had an average inflation estimate of 2.2 percent for this year, with 54 percent of respondents expecting the consumer price index (CPI) to rise more than 2 percent. Early this month, the DGBAS forecast this year’s CPI to increase 1.64 percent, lower than the central bank’s 1.89 percent projection.
Meanwhile, the survey showed a continued increase in the public’s appetite for stock investment this month, with the optimism index on local stocks rising to 16.6 from 16.1 last month and the index assessing investors’ appetite to take risks also moving higher to 16.2 from 13.9 the previous month.
About 31.9 percent of respondents said the TAIEX would peak at between 18,000 and 19,000 points in the first half of this year, 22.5 percent forecast the index to stay as high as 19,000 to 20,000 points, and 19.9 percent expected a rally to above 20,000 points over the next six months, the survey found.
The TAIEX closed 0.76 percent higher yesterday at 17,815.10, having declined 1.39 percent so far this year.
Cathay Financial’s monthly survey, which collected 17,009 valid responses from its customers, was conducted between Jan. 1 and Jan. 7 before the nation held its presidential and legislative elections on Jan. 13.
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