Global consumption of coffee is likely to climb 1 to 2 percent a year through the end of the decade, International Coffee Organization executive director Vanusia Nogueira said, estimating that about 25 million more 60kg bags would be needed over the next eight years.
“We are more conservative now for a short-term projection,” Nogueira said at a conference in Hanoi held by the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association, referring to all the events the world is facing, including high inflation in Europe and Russia’s war in Ukraine.
The organization’s earlier forecasts for consumption growth averaging 3.3 percent a year over the long term were too “optimistic,” she added.
Photo: Bloomberg
The global market would reach a balance in supply and demand in the next two or three years, from a deficit now, Nogueira said in a Bloomberg interview.
The world needs more of arabica and robusta beans, but increases in robusta production and demand would be higher, she said.
Traditional arabica producers are trying to grow more robusta amid global warming, while roasters are seeking to add cheaper robusta to their blends.
“If you have robusta with higher quality, consumers won’t feel a big difference in the blends,” Nogueira said.
Many markets are looking for fine robusta, she said.
Vietnam is doing its homework on expanding to high-quality robusta production “quite well,” Nogueira said, adding that she was surprised to taste three sets of “very good” cups of coffee during a visit a day earlier with a group of international guests to a coffee shop owned by the nation’s second-largest exporter, Vinh Hiep Co.
The group does not see Vietnam’s global dominance of robusta exports being hurt by Brazil’s increased production of conilon, because the extra output would go to supplying the South American country’s soluble industry, the world’s largest, Nogueira said.
Producing nations need to boost domestic consumption for better prices and benefits to their economies, she said.
Vietnam expects domestic coffee consumption to rise 5 to 10 percent in the coming years, from the current 300,000 tonnes, which includes 170,000 tonnes used for instant coffee production, Do Ha Nam, vice head of the country’s coffee association, said at the conference.
Nam, who is also chairman of the nation’s top shipper Intimex Group, projected that shipments from Vietnam would drop this year and next year because of lower production and insignificant carry-over stocks from the previous season.
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