Thailand yesterday downgraded its economic growth forecast for this year as it battles its worst COVID-19 wave, which has brought record numbers of new infections and deaths.
Last year, it experienced its worst full-year performance since the Asian financial crisis of 1997, with a 6.1 percent economic contraction.
The Thai Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) had initially given a cool forecast for recovery during the first quarter, estimating growth of 1.5 to 2.5 percent for this year.
However, NESDC Secretary-General Danucha Pichayanan yesterday announced it had to revise that figure down to 0.7 to 1.2 percent.
“This crisis caused by the [COVID-19] pandemic is unlike the financial crises of 1997 and 2009 — our estimation is based on domestic causes,” he told a news conference.
He added that the new forecast was dependent on the hope that the pandemic’s curve would flatten after the third quarter, thus enabling a relaxation of restrictions by October.
“But if the pandemic continues and relaxation cannot start in the fourth quarter ... the growth could be lower than 0.7 percent,” Danucha said.
Thailand’s GDP for the second quarter was up 7.5 percent from the same period last year, the first sign of recovery since the pandemic.
The growth was most visible in the agricultural, industrial and exports sectors, while tourism — once Thailand’s cash cow — remained sluggish.
Since the start of the pandemic Thailand has recorded 928,314 cases and 7,733 deaths, the bulk of them detected since April.
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