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Okasaki warns of US, China clash

"If China confronts the US, I am afraid that it will meet with the same fate as other nations who have challenged Anglo-Saxon hegemony." Hisahiko Okazaki, former Japanese ambassador PHOTO: CHEN CHENG-CHANG, TAIPEI TIMES

Policies designed to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, now exercised by both Washington and Beijing, are by nature "vulnerable," and should be altered to avoid a collision between the two powers, former Japanese ambassador Hisahiko Okazaki warned yesterday.

Okazaki, addressing the first US-Japan-Taiwan Trilateral Strategic Dialogue seminar, discussed the course of world history over the next fifty to one hundred years.

"Only China can be regarded as the next challenger to the Anglo-Saxons," said Okazaki, speaking at the Westin Hotel in downtown Taipei.

"If China confronts the US, I am afraid that it will meet with the same fate as other nations who have challenged Anglo-Saxon hegemony," Okazaki said, adding that the Taiwan factor is the most pivotal element in future Washington-Beijing ties.

Okazaki went on to argue that both Washington and Beijing "appear to agree on the maintenance of the status quo in the Taiwan Strait," a situation the diplomat perceived as "vulnerable" by its very nature.

"The US declares that it would not support Taiwan independence. But how long can the US persuade Taiwan to refrain from seeking formal independence?" said the 72-year-old veteran diplomat.

"It can't keep preventing the Taiwanese from freely expressing their own will through democratic procedures."

If a majority of Taiwanese do vote for independence, Okazaki argued that the US would "most likely defend a fellow democracy," given what he observed as the current climate in the pro-Taiwan US Congress.

The Cambridge-educated economist, who during the past 50 years has climbed the Japanese bureaucratic ladder with impressive defense as well as foreign ministry experience, then urged the US to revamp its longstanding policy toward Taiwan.

"The US should stop asking for artificial restraint and let Taiwan's democracy work. It should refrain from repeating the empty words `one China,' or `non-support of Taiwan independence,'" he said.

The US should not intervene in the future course of Taiwanese politics, he warned, adding: "The US should instead watch carefully the natural course of events, while committing itself to the defending the freedom of Taiwan."

Evaluating Beijing's policy toward Taipei, Okazaki, currently serving as director of the Tokyo-based think tank, The Okazaki Institute, said China's policy of maintaining the status quo is "short-term," as Beijing has claimed it would not wait indefinitely for unification.

But with some Chinese leaders proposing that Beijing could "negotiate" with Taipei after its military forces occupy the island, Beijing's concept of maintaining the status quo could put the US and China on a "collision course," Okazaki said.

"But the question is whether this would be perceived as a peaceful negotiation. In the context of the Taiwan Relations Act, it would be considered an act of intimidation, one that the US would most likely not accept," Okazaki said.

"China should never underestimate the fact that the Anglo-Saxons can sometimes be tremendous fighters, formidable adversaries ... Be careful about dealing with the Anglo-Saxons," Okazaki said, triggering a roomful of laughter from an audience from the US, Japan and Taiwan.

Osaki argued that such a conflict could eventuate if and when Beijing believed that the loss of Taiwan would result in the loss of Tibet and/or other territories.

Beijing, however, could quickly defuse the situation by seeking a peaceful settlement with Taipei by agreeing to a "separate Taiwan," said the former minister and ambassador to Saudi Arabia and Thailand.
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