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Jiang is trying to hold on to power

`According to insiders, Jiang is seeking international support for his staying in power, especially from the US. This is reflected in the reaction to the discovery of spying devices on Jiang's official plane.'

As we enter the year 2002, the world is watching how China's colossal communist regime will handle the upcoming transition of power. Personnel matters at the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) 16th National Congress, to be held this fall, have become the focus of attention.

At last year's Beidaihe meetings and the Sixth Plenary Session that followed, the CCP authorities kept silent about high-level personnel reshuffles. Outsiders, especially the Hong Kong media, continued to release unconfirmed inside stories, which focused on whether Chinese President Jiang Zemin (江澤民) will give up the immense political and military power in his possession.

The leftist Mirror magazine (鏡報) said with certainty that Jiang, "during some individual discussions" at Beidaihe, had indicated he would "give up all positions" at the 16th National Congress.

But the Hsin Pao (信報) said in December that Jiang was suppressing Hu Jintao's (胡錦濤) followers and installing his own trusted cronies in central and local government positions. Open magazine (開放) also reported that Jiang was unwilling to leave his posts and would stay on as chairman of the Central Military Commission, and that he would let Hu be president only. In early January, the South China Morning Post forecast the result of the reshuffle: Hu would become CCP general secretary and president, Zeng Qinghong (曾慶紅) would become vice president, and Jiang would hold onto his military commission chairmanship. The paper also claimed that the name list had been set and no changes were possible.

The latest news I have obtained is that Jiang indeed plans to retain chairmanship of the military commission and that he does not even want to give up the CCP general secretary's position.

No one dares challenge him because there is no legal limit on the terms for these positions and because a key CCP doctrine has always been "the party commands the gun."

Now, through local government officials and some central government cadres, Jiang has already started a campaign to allow him to keep these important positions. One popular line: "[He has] done the job well and is in good health. [His] carrying on a few more years will be good for the country."

Opposition to the campaign has not become public, but in private many people have reservations. Many believe Jiang cannot make a graceful exit if he openly goes against "the teachings of the ancestors" by resuming the lifetime tenure system and playing emperor. One former high-level leader said, "Jiang may stay behind the curtain, but he must not call the shots."

In the past, the central government set the rule: "On important matters, listen to Deng Xiaoping's (鄧小平) opinion," but that was everyone's request. Now, who would want to set a similar rule for Jiang?

In the 1980s, the CCP had many party elders and the general secretary's power was limited. When Deng wanted to have a meeting, it was said, he would not be able to do so without the approval of Chen Yun (陳雲), another party elder, and vice versa.

Zhao Ziyang (趙紫陽) once complained that he was only the chief of secretaries, not the general secretary, and that Chen and Deng should confer with each other before telling him to preside over a meeting.

Jiang's think tanks have even designed an important proposal for him, which is to amend the CCP's party charter and create a suitable framework for Jiang to hold on to power. The proposal, said to be near completion, contains two key points:

-- To incorporate Jiang's "Three Represents" (三個代表) dictum into the party charter as a guiding theory.

-- To have the general secretary moonlight as chairman of the military commission and a new national security commission.

A national security commission was proposed a long time ago. Now the global war against terrorism following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on the US has raised its profile again.

Sources said China's national security commission will command all the organs of dictatorship, including police, armed police and national security departments. Commission members will include party and state leaders. In fact, it will possess supreme power above the party and the state. Unlike Deng, Jiang is not a founding elder of the nation whose words carry great weight. Only through such a framework -- not through his personal reputation -- can Jiang hold on to power.

This month, 3,000 representatives will be elected across the country to attend the 16th National Congress. The warm-up will begin after the National People's Congress (China's legislature) and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference in March. Jiang will make a tone-setting speech in April or May, just like the speech he gave at the Central Party School in May 1997, before the CCP's 15th National Congress.

The upcoming speech is allegedly being penned by a squad of scribes in Xishan. That speech will be followed by the Beidaihe meetings in July and August, which will inevitably discuss personnel matters.

After Beidaihe, the 16th National Congress will be held in September. The personnel arrangements will already be finalized by then and no major changes will be made at the national congress.

According to insiders, Jiang is seeking international support for his staying in power, especially from the US. This is reflected in the reaction to the discovery of spying devices on Jiang's official plane. Installing more than 20 bugs on a jet ordered by a head of state is no small matter. However, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Sun Yuxi (孫玉璽) pretended ignorance, saying "[I'm] not yet clear what it's all about." He even said: "China is a peace-loving country and does not constitute a threat to anyone. Therefore, it is absolutely unnecessary to engage in eavesdropping on China."

It's hard to believe such a low-key response came from the same country that boiled with rage following the EP-3 incident in April last year. The spokesman said the bugging incident would not affect Sino-US relations, but whether it will have any effect depends completely on China's attitude. There is apparently more to this story. The devices were discovered in August last year, but Beijing kept silent about the matter, so as to keep a trump card for containing the US in the future. However, the US "self-detonated" the issue to its own advantage.

It turned out that this "Air Force One" jet was delivered to China in August last year, one year ahead of schedule, at China's request. The US side discovered corruption in the transaction, with Boeing having received only US$10 million of a US$30 million advance payment.

After China discovered the bugging devices, Jiang ordered the plane grounded, suspicious that there might be more mischief. But the jet already cost US$120 million, of which US$4 million went on luxurious decorations. The taxpayer's money all went down the drain. By revealing the incident, the US hoped to provoke a reaction from the Chinese populace. It could then create a better atmosphere for Bush's China visit some time later.

The US has also requested a Bush-Hu meeting during Bush's visit later this month. But China has only agreed to a collective meeting with Jiang, Zhu and Hu, not to a one-to-one meeting. This is seen by Beijing insiders as one of Jiang's methods for suppressing Hu, similar to not letting Hu show up at the APEC meeting in Shanghai last year.

Jiang is even hoping to visit the US when he visits South America in September, so as to rally support for himself on the eve of the 16th National Congress. The US has not responded to his request yet.

Sung Chih is a commentator who writes for the Hong Kong-based Open magazine. Translated by Francis Huang
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