Home sales and orders for long-lasting goods probably climbed last month, increases that enhance the odds the US recovery will be sustained, economists said before reports this week.
Purchases of new and existing homes rose to a combined 5.63 million annual rate, the first gain in four months, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Bookings for goods meant to last several years may have advanced for a fourth straight time.
The advances in durable goods would be the longest since 2005, highlighting how manufacturing is at the forefront of the economic rebound as global demand strengthens. The improvement in housing, meanwhile, is more dependent on help from the federal government as buyers rush to beat a deadline to qualify for a tax credit, indicating the industry will take time to rally.
“Business spending does seem to be picking up and I think that is going to be one of the key elements for the expansion,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. On housing, “anything we get on the positive side would be an improvement.”
Reports last week showed builders turned less pessimistic this month and housing starts for last month were at the highest level in more than a year.
Sales of previously owned houses probably rose to a 5.3 million annual rate last month from a 5.02 million pace a month earlier, a report from the National Association of Realtors could show on Thursday. A day later, data from the US Commerce Department could show purchases of new homes climbed 5.5 percent to a 325,000 rate, according to the survey median.
The Obama administration in November extended a credit for first-time homebuyers and expanded it to include some current owners. The deadline for signing purchase contracts is the end of this month and transactions must be completed by June 30.
“There is potential for sales to jump a bit” in coming months ahead of the deadline, said Aaron Smith, a senior economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania.
After that, the state of the labor market, mortgage rates and developments surrounding foreclosures, which are depressing property values and adding to already bloated inventories, will determine housing’s fate, Smith said.
The outlook for factories is less ambiguous as improving economies overseas propel exports and rising US demand prompts companies to update equipment and boost stockpiles. Orders for durable goods probably increased 0.2 percent last month after rising 0.9 percent in February, a Commerce Department report could show on Friday.
Sales overseas rose in February to the highest level since October 2008, the Commerce Department reported last week.
Manufacturing last month expanded at the fastest pace since 2004, according to a national survey of purchasing managers.
General Electric Co “saw encouraging economic signs,” in the first quarter, chief executive officer Jeffrey Immelt said in a statement on Friday. The company expects results this year to be little changed from last year, with “upside potential,” Immelt said.
GE now gets more than half of its revenue from outside the US Immelt increased the research budget in total by about 7 percent and has said he plans to boost it more this year. In the first quarter, GE raised its research and development investment by 16 percent, Immelt said.
GE has been the biggest contributor to the advance in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index so far this year, boosting the gauge by 4.3 points. The S&P Supercomposite Machinery Index, which includes Caterpillar Inc and Deere & Co, is up 16 percent since Dec. 31, more than double the 6.9 percent gain in the broader 500 index.
A report today could show the economic recovery is gaining momentum. The index of leading indicators, a measure of the outlook over the next three to six months, probably rose 1 percent last month, a 12th consecutive advance, according to the survey median before figures from the New York-based Conference Board.
Finally, another report this week may show inflation is contained. Economists surveyed projected wholesale prices excluding food and energy costs rose 0.1 percent last month, the same as the prior month, according to the survey median.
Volatility in fuel costs, may have caused overall producer prices to rise 0.5 percent after falling 0.6 percent in February, the survey showed. The Labor Department’s report is scheduled to be released on Thursday.
ANNOUNCEMENT: People who do not comply with the ban after a spoken warning would be reported to the police, the airport company said on Friday Taoyuan International Airport Corp on Friday announced that riding on vehicles, including scooter-suitcases (also known as “scootcases”), bicycles, scooters and skateboards, is prohibited in the airport’s terminals. Those using such vehicles should manually pull them or place them on luggage trolleys, the company said in a Facebook post. The ban intends to maintain order and protect travelers’ safety, as the airport often sees large crowds of people, it said, adding that it has stepped up publicity for the regulation, and those who do not comply after a spoken warning would be reported to the police. The company yesterday said that
NEW YEAR’S ADDRESS: ‘No matter what threats and challenges Taiwan faces, democracy is the only path,’ William Lai said, urging progress ‘without looking back’ President William Lai (賴清德) yesterday urged parties across the political divide to democratically resolve conflicts that have plagued domestic politics within Taiwan’s constitutional system. In his first New Year’s Day address since becoming president on May 20 last year, Lai touched on several issues, including economic and security challenges, but a key emphasis was on the partisan wrangling that has characterized his first seven months in office. Taiwan has transformed from authoritarianism into today’s democracy and that democracy is the future, Lai said. “No matter what threats and challenges Taiwan faces, democracy is the only path for Taiwan,” he said. “The only choice
CORRUPTION: Twelve other people were convicted on charges related to giving illegal benefits, forgery and money laundering, with sentences ranging from one to five years The Yilan District Court yesterday found Yilan County Commissioner Lin Zi-miao (林姿妙) guilty of corruption, sentencing her to 12 years and six months in prison. The Yilan District Prosecutors’ Office in 2022 indicted 10 government officials and five private individuals, including Lin, her daughter and a landowner. Lin was accused of giving illegal favors estimated to be worth NT$2.4 million (US$73,213) in exchange for using a property to conduct activities linked to the 2020 Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) presidential and legislative election campaigns. Those favors included exempting some property and construction firms from land taxes and building code contraventions that would have required
TECH CORRIDOR: Technology centers and science parks in the south would be linked, bolstering the AI, semiconductor, biotech, drone, space and smart agriculture industries The Executive Yuan yesterday approved a “Southern Silicon Valley” project to promote the development of an artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor industry in Chiayi County, Tainan, Pingtung County and Kaohsiung. The plan would build an integrated “S-shaped semiconductor industry corridor” that links technology centers and science parks in the south, Executive Yuan spokesperson Michelle Lee (李慧芝) said yesterday after a Cabinet meeting. The project would bolster the AI, semiconductor, biotech, drone, space and smart agriculture industries, she said. The proposed tech corridor would be supported by government efforts to furnish computing power, workforce, supply chains and policy measures that encourage application and integration
RSS