Oil demand growth next year will be slightly less than previously forecast at 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) and the evidence of a “bottoming out” of the global recession is patchy, the International Energy Agency said on yesterday.
In a monthly report, the agency revised upwards global outright demand next year by 70,000 bpd to 85.3 million bpd on the basis of higher fuel use in Asia.
Demand growth, however, was reduced by around 100,000 bpd from the 1.4 million bpd estimated a month ago following a larger upward adjustment for this year’s demand, now assessed at 83.9 million bpd.
With any growth concentrated in Asia, forecast demand in developed countries next year was broadly unchanged.
In particular, it cited a contraction in industrial production as a major limitation on demand for refined products.
“Evidence of a bottoming out of the recession is still a bit patchy. The latest data on industrial production for some of the larger countries remains negative,” said David Martin, analyst at the IEA.
“There is not clear evidence yet we have seen the worst,” he said.
The report said global gasoil demand — a key indicator of economic health — was subdued.
Only China and India were registering growth in industrial production and elsewhere production was still contracting, although the pace of contraction had slowed.
Combined with the impact of an insipid US summer driving season, the drawdown in stocks typical of this time of year has not happened.
The IEA said stocks in developed countries still equated to 61.7 days of forward cover at the end of June, unchanged from the previous month, which was downwardly revised from an earlier report.
Global oil supply in July rose by 570,000 bpd in July to 85.1 million bpd, of which around two thirds came from non-OPEC countries.
Compared with July last year, global oil supply has contracted by 2.6 million bpd, almost entirely because of OPEC crude production cuts.
Output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries contracted last month by about 100,000 bpd to 28.64 million bpd, it said, citing record low output from Nigeria.
Production by the 11 OPEC members with output targets, which excludes Iraq, was down by 120,000 bpd at 26.12 million bpd — 1.28 million bpd above the group’s agreed production ceiling.
Total non-OPEC supply for this year was revised upwards by 160,000 bpd, chiefly because of stronger-than-expected Russian output.
AIR SUPPORT: The Ministry of National Defense thanked the US for the delivery, adding that it was an indicator of the White House’s commitment to the Taiwan Relations Act Deputy Minister of National Defense Po Horng-huei (柏鴻輝) and Representative to the US Alexander Yui on Friday attended a delivery ceremony for the first of Taiwan’s long-awaited 66 F-16C/D Block 70 jets at a Lockheed Martin Corp factory in Greenville, South Carolina. “We are so proud to be the global home of the F-16 and to support Taiwan’s air defense capabilities,” US Representative William Timmons wrote on X, alongside a photograph of Taiwanese and US officials at the event. The F-16C/D Block 70 jets Taiwan ordered have the same capabilities as aircraft that had been upgraded to F-16Vs. The batch of Lockheed Martin
GRIDLOCK: The National Fire Agency’s Special Search and Rescue team is on standby to travel to the countries to help out with the rescue effort A powerful earthquake rocked Myanmar and neighboring Thailand yesterday, killing at least three people in Bangkok and burying dozens when a high-rise building under construction collapsed. Footage shared on social media from Myanmar’s second-largest city showed widespread destruction, raising fears that many were trapped under the rubble or killed. The magnitude 7.7 earthquake, with an epicenter near Mandalay in Myanmar, struck at midday and was followed by a strong magnitude 6.4 aftershock. The extent of death, injury and destruction — especially in Myanmar, which is embroiled in a civil war and where information is tightly controlled at the best of times —
Taiwan was ranked the fourth-safest country in the world with a score of 82.9, trailing only Andorra, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar in Numbeo’s Safety Index by Country report. Taiwan’s score improved by 0.1 points compared with last year’s mid-year report, which had Taiwan fourth with a score of 82.8. However, both scores were lower than in last year’s first review, when Taiwan scored 83.3, and are a long way from when Taiwan was named the second-safest country in the world in 2021, scoring 84.8. Taiwan ranked higher than Singapore in ninth with a score of 77.4 and Japan in 10th with
SECURITY RISK: If there is a conflict between China and Taiwan, ‘there would likely be significant consequences to global economic and security interests,’ it said China remains the top military and cyber threat to the US and continues to make progress on capabilities to seize Taiwan, a report by US intelligence agencies said on Tuesday. The report provides an overview of the “collective insights” of top US intelligence agencies about the security threats to the US posed by foreign nations and criminal organizations. In its Annual Threat Assessment, the agencies divided threats facing the US into two broad categories, “nonstate transnational criminals and terrorists” and “major state actors,” with China, Russia, Iran and North Korea named. Of those countries, “China presents the most comprehensive and robust military threat
RSS