General Motors’ (GM) fall from grace is not yet complete. The firm’s expected bankruptcy would spell its eviction from the Dow Jones coveted list of 30 top US companies, of which GM has been a pillar since 1925.
Even if GM’s court filing has not yet been signed, speculation is rife about which firm might take its place on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as the former behemoth’s share price tumbled 47 percent last week. GM’s shares fell to US$0.75 each on Friday, well below the US$1 minimum for listing on the New York-based exchange.
It is a confluence of factors that means GM will suffer the same fate as AIG. In September, the insurance giant was removed from the Dow Jones index two days after its nationalization, replaced by Kraft Foods.
“Once a company files for bankruptcy protection it is disqualified from being one of the 30 Dow components,” Dow spokesperson Sybille Reitz said. “We are aware of GM’s situation and are taking steps accordingly. We have been following the situation closely.”
There is great competition to replace GM on the venerable list, which has served as a bellwether for US business since it was launched in 1896.
One solution could be to replace GM with its rival Ford — which has so far managed to escape the crisis without government aid.
But Ford’s share price is far from stellar, trading at around US$5.75. Jon Ogg of 247wallst.com said that makes the firm — which had previously been a member of the elite club — an unlikely inductee.
One of the more frequently cited names is that of Wall Street darling Goldman Sachs.
The investment giant should be one of the first to pay back government loans, thanks to a share price of more than US$144.
Nicholas Colas, head of investment strategy at the BNY ConvergEx Group, said that makes Goldman Sachs a favorite.
There are other contenders. From the technology sector, Apple, Google, Cisco and Oracle are mentioned as possible replacements.
Google’s candidature runs into the difficulty that its share price — at over US$400 a piece — may skew the index.
And technology stocks are already well represented by heavyweight IBM.
A recent poll by CNBC has further muddied the picture. The financial news provider asked customers who should replace GM. The response was Abbott Labs, a pharmaceuticals firm.
From the biotech field, Monsanto is an outsider. Owen Patrick of Deutsche Bank pointed out that Monsanto was an important member of another index, the Standard and Poor’s 500.
“It is a little smaller in market cap,” said BNY’s Colas, “and not as well known, but its technology and competitive advantage would be unique in the Dow.”
If the GM change has been keenly anticipated, that is because change on the Dow is rare.
Only six firms have come in this decade, with three last year, including Kraft — Bank of America and Chevron replaced Altria and Honeywell.
Ogg said the index’s managers may use the opportunity to dump other listings hit by the financial crisis.
Citigroup, now trading at US$4 a share, must feel its head is on the chopping block.
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