Middle Eastern oil-exporting nations may lose US$300 billion in revenue because of lower crude prices and production cuts prompted by the global financial crisis, the IMF said.
Economic growth for the 12 crude producers will slow to 3.6 percent this year from 5.6 percent last year, IMF Middle East and Central Asia Department director Masood Ahmed said yesterday in Dubai. Oil export receipts are likely to drop 50 percent.
Oil prices have fallen almost 75 percent from their July high as the global economy sank into recession, straining budgets of crude exporters. Most are expected to tap into their oil savings to maintain spending and avoid recession.
PHOTO: AP
Saudi Arabia said it would post a 65 billion riyal (US$17 billion) deficit this year.
Growth in the six Gulf Arab states, which includes Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain, will slow to 3.5 percent from 6.8 percent, while inflation will decline to 6.3 percent, Ahmed said.
“If oil exporters cut their long-term oil price expectations and, consequently, their spending, growth prospects would be weaker for the entire region,” Ahmed said.
Some financial institutions in the region may be “under stress” if asset price corrections deepen.
The IMF classes the oil exporters of the Middle East as Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, the Emirates and Yemen.
The account surplus of US$400 billion among the oil exporters will turn into a deficit of US$30 billion this year, Ahmed said.
“For most countries, this deterioration is from a position of significant strength and thus can comfortably be sustained,” he said.
Oman has said it would record a budget shortfall of 810 million rials (US$2.1 billion), while Dubai forecasts a shortfall of 4.2 billion dirhams (US$1.1 billion).
“The global slowdown will clearly have a significant impact on growth through lower exports, tourism, remittances and higher cost of credit,” Ahmed said.
Continued spending by oil exporters will soften the blow as emerging markets have limited opportunity for counter-cyclical spending, he said.
A Chinese freighter that allegedly snapped an undersea cable linking Taiwan proper to Penghu County is suspected of being owned by a Chinese state-run company and had docked at the ports of Kaohsiung and Keelung for three months using different names. On Tuesday last week, the Togo-flagged freighter Hong Tai 58 (宏泰58號) and its Chinese crew were detained after the Taipei-Penghu No. 3 submarine cable was severed. When the Coast Guard Administration (CGA) first attempted to detain the ship on grounds of possible sabotage, its crew said the ship’s name was Hong Tai 168, although the Automatic Identification System (AIS)
An Akizuki-class destroyer last month made the first-ever solo transit of a Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force ship through the Taiwan Strait, Japanese government officials with knowledge of the matter said yesterday. The JS Akizuki carried out a north-to-south transit through the Taiwan Strait on Feb. 5 as it sailed to the South China Sea to participate in a joint exercise with US, Australian and Philippine forces that day. The Japanese destroyer JS Sazanami in September last year made the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force’s first-ever transit through the Taiwan Strait, but it was joined by vessels from New Zealand and Australia,
SECURITY: The purpose for giving Hong Kong and Macau residents more lenient paths to permanent residency no longer applies due to China’s policies, a source said The government is considering removing an optional path to citizenship for residents from Hong Kong and Macau, and lengthening the terms for permanent residence eligibility, a source said yesterday. In a bid to prevent the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) from infiltrating Taiwan through immigration from Hong Kong and Macau, the government could amend immigration laws for residents of the territories who currently receive preferential treatment, an official familiar with the matter speaking on condition of anonymity said. The move was part of “national security-related legislative reform,” they added. Under the amendments, arrivals from the Chinese territories would have to reside in Taiwan for
CRITICAL MOVE: TSMC’s plan to invest another US$100 billion in US chipmaking would boost Taiwan’s competitive edge in the global market, the premier said The government would ensure that the most advanced chipmaking technology stays in Taiwan while assisting Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) in investing overseas, the Presidential Office said yesterday. The statement follows a joint announcement by the world’s largest contract chipmaker and US President Donald Trump on Monday that TSMC would invest an additional US$100 billion over the next four years to expand its semiconductor manufacturing operations in the US, which would include construction of three new chip fabrication plants, two advanced packaging facilities, and a research and development center. The government knew about the deal in advance and would assist, Presidential
RSS