Singapore’s economy could contract by as much as 2 percent this year, the government said yesterday after data showed a deepening recession in the trade-dependent economy.
The forecast marks a downgrade from the government’s previous estimate, made in November, which ranged between a contraction of 1 percent and expansion of 2 percent this year.
“The global economic crisis has worsened since November, with sharp declines in global demand, trade and investments,” the Ministry of Trade and Industry said in a news release.
PHOTO: EPA
It also cited a sharp fourth-quarter contraction in the Singapore economy for the weaker forecast.
Singapore in October became the first Asian economy to enter recession, but since then major economies around the world — including the city state’s key export markets the EU and US — have also seen declining economic activity.
Singapore is Southeast Asia’s wealthiest economy in terms of GDP per capita, but its heavy dependence on trade makes it sensitive to economic disturbances in developed economies.
On a seasonally adjusted annualized quarter-on-quarter basis, real GDP fell by 12.5 percent in the fourth quarter last year, compared with a decline of 5.4 percent in the third quarter, the trade ministry said. In the second quarter last year, the economy fell by 5.7 percent.
Measured against the fourth quarter the previous year, the economy contracted by 2.6 percent in real terms, after a 0.3 percent year-on-year fall in the third quarter.
GDP is the value of all goods and services produced by an economy.
The fourth-quarter figures are advance estimates based largely on October and November figures. More detailed information is to be released next month.
In his New Year’s Day message to the nation on Wednesday, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (李顯龍) warned the economy was likely to worsen this year after growing just 1.5 percent last year.
The performance was below the last official forecast of 2.5 percent growth, after earlier downgrades in last year’s growth outlook were made during the year.
In 2007, the economy grew by 7.7 percent, the trade ministry said.
“Our economy will probably contract further. More companies will be forced to downsize. So far we have not seen many job losses, but I expect more retrenchments in the next few months. We must be psychologically prepared,” the prime minister said.
“As a small, open economy, Singapore cannot avoid being hit. We earn our living by trading with and servicing the world. So the fall in worldwide demand has hit our exports, our tourism sector and our broader economy. We must therefore prepare for a difficult year ahead and especially the first half of 2009,” he said.
Super Typhoon Kong-rey is the largest cyclone to impact Taiwan in 27 years, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said today. Kong-rey’s radius of maximum wind (RMW) — the distance between the center of a cyclone and its band of strongest winds — has expanded to 320km, CWA forecaster Chang Chun-yao (張竣堯) said. The last time a typhoon of comparable strength with an RMW larger than 300km made landfall in Taiwan was Typhoon Herb in 1996, he said. Herb made landfall between Keelung and Suao (蘇澳) in Yilan County with an RMW of 350km, Chang said. The weather station in Alishan (阿里山) recorded 1.09m of
STORM’S PATH: Kong-Rey could be the first typhoon to make landfall in Taiwan in November since Gilda in 1967. Taitung-Green Island ferry services have been halted Tropical Storm Kong-rey is forecast to strengthen into a typhoon early today and could make landfall in Taitung County between late Thursday and early Friday, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. As of 2pm yesterday, Kong-Rey was 1,030km east-southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻), the nation’s southernmost point, and was moving west at 7kph. The tropical storm was packing maximum sustained winds of 101kph, with gusts of up to 126 kph, CWA data showed. After landing in Taitung, the eye of the storm is forecast to move into the Taiwan Strait through central Taiwan on Friday morning, the agency said. With the storm moving
NO WORK, CLASS: President William Lai urged people in the eastern, southern and northern parts of the country to be on alert, with Typhoon Kong-rey approaching Typhoon Kong-rey is expected to make landfall on Taiwan’s east coast today, with work and classes canceled nationwide. Packing gusts of nearly 300kph, the storm yesterday intensified into a typhoon and was expected to gain even more strength before hitting Taitung County, the US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center said. The storm is forecast to cross Taiwan’s south, enter the Taiwan Strait and head toward China, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. The CWA labeled the storm a “strong typhoon,” the most powerful on its scale. Up to 1.2m of rainfall was expected in mountainous areas of eastern Taiwan and destructive winds are likely
The Central Weather Administration (CWA) yesterday at 5:30pm issued a sea warning for Typhoon Kong-rey as the storm drew closer to the east coast. As of 8pm yesterday, the storm was 670km southeast of Oluanpi (鵝鑾鼻) and traveling northwest at 12kph to 16kph. It was packing maximum sustained winds of 162kph and gusts of up to 198kph, the CWA said. A land warning might be issued this morning for the storm, which is expected to have the strongest impact on Taiwan from tonight to early Friday morning, the agency said. Orchid Island (Lanyu, 蘭嶼) and Green Island (綠島) canceled classes and work
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